4 ms·

"This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world" Careful here. There is no guarantee that once 95% of the world is vaccinated that thi

"This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world" Careful here. There is no guarantee that once 95% of the world is vaccinated that this will be solved. Respiratory viral infections are notorious for mutating and spreading regardless of vaccines or treatment. IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Its quite possible this virus is simply here to stay and a multi array of treatments will hopefully continue to improve outcomes.

tzs 5y ago
He is making an A is a necessary condition for B claim, not an A is a sufficient condition for B claim.
zpeti 5y ago
> IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Well said. And at this point we should pray this doesn't turn into a Marek's disease replica https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention
- ipspam 5y ago
  The vaccine is leaky. Therefore, the vaccine will do more bad than good, long term. This variant could be the one to popularize Original Antigenic Sin. Hopefully not.... But part of me wants for the Fu*** to learn their lesson and stop punishing dissent, pretending they are god (they being politicians and scientists)
  - ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago
    The trouble is the authorities won't learn anything - many could care less about science or history, they just care about power and influence. I do agree that more dissent and conflicting expert opinions were needed in this crisis. Especially dangerous is the idea that "if only everyone did X", then all will be well. This is rarely true. I think the government's role should be to transmit the best possible information available at the moment, give some strong recommendations and incentives (and change them when new information comes to light), but never use force and coercion. It simply doesn't work in the long run.
  - dang 5y ago
    Your account has been using HN primarily for ideological and political battle. That's not what this site is for, and we ban accounts that do it, regardless of what they're battling for. We have to, because it destroys this place for its intended purpose. I'm not going to ban you right now, because I did notice a few previous comments that weren't doing this—though I had to look pretty hard for them. If you keep this up, though, we're going to have to ban you, so if you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.
jmnicolas 5y ago
> There is no guarantee that once 95% of the world is vaccinated that this will be solved. Respiratory viral infections are notorious for mutating and spreading regardless of vaccines or treatment. Especially true since the virus lives in animals, so it will never be eradicated.
- londons_explore 5y ago
  96% of mammel biomass are humans, pets, or farm animals. We could vaccinate all of those. If we needed to do the last 4% of wild animals, I'm betting we could vaccinate more than half of those too.
  - Mountain_Skies 5y ago
    Does the collective mass matter? Seems like the important number would be the number of mammals, not their mass.
    - dredmorbius 5y ago
      Biomass is a rough proxy for prevalence. There are remarkably few mamallian species with > 1m population. Virtually all are grazing animals, sea mammals, or rodents. I'm not sure what species SARS-COV-2 is compatible with, though I've mostly heard of animals > 5kg mass (e.g., domesticated cats, dogs, deer, wildcats), with the very notable exception of bats. The virus has been detected in 20--40% of sampled deer in the US in multiple states, which is a particularly bad sign. If it's gained foothold in rodent populations ... well, it could be around for a while. From April of 2021: Results obtained from experimental studies indicate that animal species such as cats, ferrets, raccoon dogs, cynomolgus macaques, rhesus macaques, white-tailed deer, rabbits, Egyptian fruit bats, and Syrian hamsters are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and that cat-to-cat and ferret-to-ferret transmission can take place via contact and air. However, natural infections of SARS-CoV-2 have been reported only in pet dogs and cats, tigers, lions, snow leopards, pumas, and gorillas at zoos, and farmed mink and ferrets. Even though human-to-animal spillover has been reported at several instances, SARS-CoV-2 transmission from animals-to-humans has only been reported from mink-to-humans in mink farms. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8128218/?report=classic https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8128218/?report... That's not to say that broader transmission isn't possible (the abstract doesn't mention deer, and I'm aware they're found to be infected). The science is still being established.

tzs 5y ago

He is making an A is a necessary condition for B claim, not an A is a sufficient condition for B claim.

zpeti 5y ago

> IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Well said. And at this point we should pray this doesn't turn into a Marek's disease replica https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

ipspam 5y ago
The vaccine is leaky. Therefore, the vaccine will do more bad than good, long term. This variant could be the one to popularize Original Antigenic Sin. Hopefully not.... But part of me wants for the Fu*** to learn their lesson and stop punishing dissent, pretending they are god (they being politicians and scientists)
- ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago
  The trouble is the authorities won't learn anything - many could care less about science or history, they just care about power and influence. I do agree that more dissent and conflicting expert opinions were needed in this crisis. Especially dangerous is the idea that "if only everyone did X", then all will be well. This is rarely true. I think the government's role should be to transmit the best possible information available at the moment, give some strong recommendations and incentives (and change them when new information comes to light), but never use force and coercion. It simply doesn't work in the long run.
- dang 5y ago
  Your account has been using HN primarily for ideological and political battle. That's not what this site is for, and we ban accounts that do it, regardless of what they're battling for. We have to, because it destroys this place for its intended purpose. I'm not going to ban you right now, because I did notice a few previous comments that weren't doing this—though I had to look pretty hard for them. If you keep this up, though, we're going to have to ban you, so if you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.

jmnicolas 5y ago

> There is no guarantee that once 95% of the world is vaccinated that this will be solved. Respiratory viral infections are notorious for mutating and spreading regardless of vaccines or treatment. Especially true since the virus lives in animals, so it will never be eradicated.

londons_explore 5y ago
96% of mammel biomass are humans, pets, or farm animals. We could vaccinate all of those. If we needed to do the last 4% of wild animals, I'm betting we could vaccinate more than half of those too.
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  Does the collective mass matter? Seems like the important number would be the number of mammals, not their mass.
  - dredmorbius 5y ago
    Biomass is a rough proxy for prevalence. There are remarkably few mamallian species with > 1m population. Virtually all are grazing animals, sea mammals, or rodents. I'm not sure what species SARS-COV-2 is compatible with, though I've mostly heard of animals > 5kg mass (e.g., domesticated cats, dogs, deer, wildcats), with the very notable exception of bats. The virus has been detected in 20--40% of sampled deer in the US in multiple states, which is a particularly bad sign. If it's gained foothold in rodent populations ... well, it could be around for a while. From April of 2021: Results obtained from experimental studies indicate that animal species such as cats, ferrets, raccoon dogs, cynomolgus macaques, rhesus macaques, white-tailed deer, rabbits, Egyptian fruit bats, and Syrian hamsters are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and that cat-to-cat and ferret-to-ferret transmission can take place via contact and air. However, natural infections of SARS-CoV-2 have been reported only in pet dogs and cats, tigers, lions, snow leopards, pumas, and gorillas at zoos, and farmed mink and ferrets. Even though human-to-animal spillover has been reported at several instances, SARS-CoV-2 transmission from animals-to-humans has only been reported from mink-to-humans in mink farms. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8128218/?report=classic https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8128218/?report... That's not to say that broader transmission isn't possible (the abstract doesn't mention deer, and I'm aware they're found to be infected). The science is still being established.