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* Infinite growth on a finite Earth is not possible * Yet our whole economic systems are predicated on infinite growth. If a country's population were to decl

* Infinite growth on a finite Earth is not possible * Yet our whole economic systems are predicated on infinite growth. If a country's population were to decline it would and does cause structural problems in their society. I wonder on climate change just how many people this clip alienated: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tkDK2mZlOo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tkDK2mZlOo You have a political figure making it a political issue, and at the same time not doing it well, basically lying to get his correct point across. Manipulating the scale and using theatrics because he assumes his base is too dumb to understand it any other way.

rp1 5y ago
How are our economic systems predicated on infinite growth? I see this “fact” parroted a lot, but always with very little detail. Japan didn’t grow economically for decades, and, as far as I can tell, continues to exist without collapsing.
- bliteben 5y ago
  The basic measure of a countries "success" is GDP. You never hear any language (and yes the language is import here) about a country reaching GDP stasis, our current economic theory is it can always improve and grow. We even assume that the best interest rate target is not 0% preventing inflation but somewhere close to our nominal rate of GDP increase relative to our actual GDP potential. We assume that even "backwards" nations like Papua New Guinea should aspire to increase their GDP to "grow" into being a developed nation. "Developing" nations alone is the type of language that shows we won't take you seriously until you have grown your GDP to be per capita like that of the good and mighty nations. Just by the fact alone that we assume the human population is growing, and that everyone should have at least the standard of living of their predecessors, we assume economic growth will occur. Of course this cannot happen forever I recommend reading this tidbit (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...). What decades are you referring to with Japan? https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2020&locations=JP&start=1997 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2... . Japan's GDP slowed down for sure but it has certainly been growing. I think you are confusing the value of Japan's stock market which was overvalued drastically at one time.
  - rp1 5y ago
    I agree that if the population grows, than GDP should also grow to account for that person. But nothing about our economic system says that the population must grow. Regarding Japan, GDP per capita was basically flat from the late 80s to the early 2010s: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CN?end=2020&locations=JP&start=1980 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CN?end=2020... Also, people don’t suggest that Papua New Guinea grow the economy for the sake of growth or the sake of the broader economic system. People think Papua New Guinea should grow because the quality of life of the population would be improved. This is not a convincing argument that our economic system is predicated on continuous growth.
- quantified 5y ago
  Population growth is assumed to be necessary so that more workers will pick up the burden of paying for elders. Japan is treated as a cautionary tale.
jnmandal 5y ago
I'm curious what you mean about Gore lying? I was quite young at that time so I didnt have informed opinion on the matter then, but these days I feel if anything he was maybe not pessimistic enough in his predictions. Everything in that clip has basically been corroborated by NASA and NOAA measurements now. I think they may have failed to highlight the risk of feedback loops and the importance of limiting methane emission...

rp1 5y ago

How are our economic systems predicated on infinite growth? I see this “fact” parroted a lot, but always with very little detail. Japan didn’t grow economically for decades, and, as far as I can tell, continues to exist without collapsing.

bliteben 5y ago
The basic measure of a countries "success" is GDP. You never hear any language (and yes the language is import here) about a country reaching GDP stasis, our current economic theory is it can always improve and grow. We even assume that the best interest rate target is not 0% preventing inflation but somewhere close to our nominal rate of GDP increase relative to our actual GDP potential. We assume that even "backwards" nations like Papua New Guinea should aspire to increase their GDP to "grow" into being a developed nation. "Developing" nations alone is the type of language that shows we won't take you seriously until you have grown your GDP to be per capita like that of the good and mighty nations. Just by the fact alone that we assume the human population is growing, and that everyone should have at least the standard of living of their predecessors, we assume economic growth will occur. Of course this cannot happen forever I recommend reading this tidbit (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...). What decades are you referring to with Japan? https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2020&locations=JP&start=1997 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2... . Japan's GDP slowed down for sure but it has certainly been growing. I think you are confusing the value of Japan's stock market which was overvalued drastically at one time.
- rp1 5y ago
  I agree that if the population grows, than GDP should also grow to account for that person. But nothing about our economic system says that the population must grow. Regarding Japan, GDP per capita was basically flat from the late 80s to the early 2010s: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CN?end=2020&locations=JP&start=1980 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CN?end=2020... Also, people don’t suggest that Papua New Guinea grow the economy for the sake of growth or the sake of the broader economic system. People think Papua New Guinea should grow because the quality of life of the population would be improved. This is not a convincing argument that our economic system is predicated on continuous growth.
quantified 5y ago
Population growth is assumed to be necessary so that more workers will pick up the burden of paying for elders. Japan is treated as a cautionary tale.

jnmandal 5y ago

I'm curious what you mean about Gore lying? I was quite young at that time so I didnt have informed opinion on the matter then, but these days I feel if anything he was maybe not pessimistic enough in his predictions. Everything in that clip has basically been corroborated by NASA and NOAA measurements now. I think they may have failed to highlight the risk of feedback loops and the importance of limiting methane emission...