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How can one model (or simulate) what one do not fully understood? Remember that simulation of covid from UK with all the pomp and bravado? Not even close to re
by lngnmn2 5y ago
How can one model (or simulate) what one do not fully understood?
Remember that simulation of covid from UK with all the pomp and bravado? Not even close to reality.
By the way, all simulations have the same relationship to reality as cartoons. This is just philosophy 101.
- xgb84j 5y ago"The best and brightest built a state of the art forecasting model and it says I should do X" sells much better than "I assume this year will be exactly like last year and last year we should have done X". Basing your decisions on complicated scientific methods inspires confidence in many people, even when there is no benefit. It also mitigates responsibility for decision makers, because they can claim that they would have made the perfect decision if only the model's predictions would have been perfect as well.
- ivandenysov 5y agoIMHO “King of the Hill” is a pretty accurate representation of reality
- aqme28 5y ago> How can one model (or simulate) what one do not fully understood? On the contrary. When you fully understand something, there's no longer a need for a model.