7 ms·

Can someone ELI5 how bad this variant is?

by kakkan 5y ago

randywaterhouse 5y ago
I think it's largely too early to say (in the sense that it has yet to be thoroughly researched in vaxx'd areas). It's clearly taken over the population of infections in South Africa but they're rolling with fairly low vax rates (I have seen a few figures reported but < 40%). There are some protein/spike characteristics of this variant which alarm scientists who think it might evade vax-generated antibodies better--i.e. alpha/delta-targeting vax antibodies may provide less resistance to this one. So on the one hand it //could be// worse than Delta but I am personally waiting for more data to flow out (esp. beyond SA).
- shadowgovt 5y ago
  It also, in early estimates, has a higher infectivity rate than the Delta variant, which is disquieting because Delta was already about as contagious as chicken pox. Numbers this early can be very misleading, but anecdotes have cropped up about infections occurring from one hotel room to another, possibly through the HVAC system, which is not a durability trick that previous variants were believed to have.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
gattilorenz 5y ago
Not a virologist, infectivologist, etc. My understanding is that this virus has a mutated spike protein, i.e. a different "outside shell". This spike protein is what gives the virus its ability to attach to human cells, and also what most vaccines "expose" to your immune system to teach it how to recognize COVID-19. The difference in this variant's spike protein might have effect, among other things, on the ability of the immune system of a person that has been vaccinated to recognize the virus, so there's potential for a much decreased response/efficacy of the vaccines. However this is pure speculation at this point. Update: earlier this year it aws speculated that the beta mutation might have increased infectivity and/or the ability to better elude the immune response; that variant eventually died out, and delta is now the prevalent one. It might be a similar case, but it's hard to tell yet, and it's of course better to err on the side of caution.
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  Given the low level of vaccination in the region, I have to wonder if the mutations are in response to something else in the environment rather than the virus working around vaccination induced immunity. That area has extraordinarily high rates of HIV. Is it possible that the virus has mutated to be better able to infect those with HIV too? I'm not a virologist either so the HIV question might be naïve but looking for differences in that environment compared to other parts of the world seems worthwhile.
  - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
    Chiming in as a 3rd level of uneducated layman, but isn't one of the defining features of HIV that it makes it easier for other infections? I'm not sure what adaptation would be required there.
    - angelzen 5y ago
      Common wisdom is that immunocompromised individuals, which are unable to battle off the virus and suffer the infection for long periods of time, are fertile grounds for variants evolution. "Rapid viral evolution has been described in immunosuppressed patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Choi et al. described an immunosuppressed patient with antiphospholipid syndrome who was hospitalized in August 2020 and treated with anticoagulants, glucocorticoids, cyclophosphamide, intermittent rituximab, and eculizumab.2 During 152 days of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection in this patient, the investigators identified 31 substitutions and three deletions in genome sequences. Twelve spike mutations were found, including seven in a segment of the receptor-binding domain consisting of 24 amino acids, some at sites linked to immune evasion (478, 484, and 493).6,7 The patient eventually died of severe Covid-19–related pneumonia. " https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756
      - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
        Yeah, that makes much more sense than a mutation to better infect those with HIVE.
satysin 5y ago
Right now the biggest concern is that this variant is the most mutated from the original strain and it is unknown how effective, if at all, our current vaccines are against it. As to is it worse (i.e. more contagious, more deadly, increased risk of hospitalised) than the current Delta variant I think it is too early to say with any confidence.
hollander 5y ago
Apparently it has taken over from the Delta-variant in southern Africa. But I haven't heard anything about how sick you get, how deadly it is, and how effective the current vaccines are. This region is poorly vaccinated, so it could very well be that the vaccines still are effective.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Delta has petered out in SA. This is perhaps the beginning of a new wave. Hopefully not. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956690743742470 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956690743742470
Mountain_Skies 5y ago
There's a general tendency for viruses to become less deadly when they become easier to spread. But that's just a general tendency and we'll have to wait and see if it's true in this case because from time to time it's not. It does have a large number of mutations. There is a theory being bounced around that the rapid decline in cases in Japan might be due to the virus there having mutated itself out of the ability to copy itself correctly so what is still spreading is falling apart. We can hope for something similar with this variant but it's just that, hope, for now.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
zz865 5y ago
This is a good summary. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421
fabian2k 5y ago
We don't know. But the early data looks concerning enough to warrant attention and closer examination. The early data is always not very reliable, there are some big effects that can skew the data and you don't have many data points yet at that point. There is also no lab work done yet, where you'd directly examine the properties of a variant. This very well could be worse than delta, but it also might not be. It looks more concerning than any variant we've seen since Delta, but we simply don't have hard data that early.
cryoshon 5y ago
it's very early in terms of the data that's out there, but so far it looks quite bad. the ELI5 is that it's expanding really fast, and it is probably at least somewhat resistant to our immune system's first line of defenses that are formed from vaccination or a prior infection. the details on all of those points are very much in flux still, so be aware that the story could change as we learn more. in more detail: the biggest piece of worrying evidence is that it's growing as a proportion of cases in south africa at such an intensely fast rate that it's outcompeting the delta variant as though it isn't even there, which means it's far more transmissible than any other variant. as far as i know, there isn't any information on whether it has higher lethality compared to delta, but my hunch is that it does. the reason why i think it will end up having increased lethality is that it appears to have a complex of mutations that are associated with resistance to antibodies, likely including those generated by vaccination. that will make it take longer for the immune system to form an effective response to infection, allowing the virus to replicate rampantly and cause organ damage for longer. keep in mind every other variant has also exhibited this property at least to a small amount, and in most cases, regardless of vaccination, our bodies are still able to clear the infection. the issue is that this time around, the variant doesn't have just one or two tropisms associated with lower antibody binding efficiency, but perhaps a couple dozen. so, it'll likely be more effective at reinfecting people who have already had covid, too. and even though the variant may be "vaccine resistant", i'd bet that vaccinated people will still fare better than unvaccinated people. unfortunately, our antibody therapies probably won't be as helpful at saving people who are hospitalized. but, our antiviral therapies (including those still in development) shouldn't be any less effective against this variant, which is a very faint silver lining. in conclusion: buckle up, we're probably in for a rough ride.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  > biggest piece of worrying evidence is that it's growing as a proportion of cases in south africa at such an intensely fast rate that it's outcompeting the delta variant as though it isn't even there, which means it's far more transmissible than any other variant. OTOH - cases in SA were very low, so we would see this sort of growth of a variant very quickly just due to founder effects without anything nefarious going on. Delta arrived when the background number of cases was much higher so it took longer to become a high proportion of cases.

Can someone ELI5 how bad this variant is?

by kakkan 5y ago

Can someone ELI5 how bad this variant is?

I think it's largely too early to say (in the sense that it has yet to be thoroughly researched in vaxx'd areas). It's clearly taken over the population of infections in South Africa but they're rolling with fairly low vax rates (I have seen a few figures reported but < 40%). There are some protein/spike characteristics of this variant which alarm scientists who think it might evade vax-generated antibodies better--i.e. alpha/delta-targeting vax antibodies may provide less resistance to this one. So on the one hand it //could be// worse than Delta but I am personally waiting for more data to flow out (esp. beyond SA).

shadowgovt 5y ago
It also, in early estimates, has a higher infectivity rate than the Delta variant, which is disquieting because Delta was already about as contagious as chicken pox. Numbers this early can be very misleading, but anecdotes have cropped up about infections occurring from one hotel room to another, possibly through the HVAC system, which is not a durability trick that previous variants were believed to have.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

gattilorenz 5y ago

Not a virologist, infectivologist, etc. My understanding is that this virus has a mutated spike protein, i.e. a different "outside shell". This spike protein is what gives the virus its ability to attach to human cells, and also what most vaccines "expose" to your immune system to teach it how to recognize COVID-19. The difference in this variant's spike protein might have effect, among other things, on the ability of the immune system of a person that has been vaccinated to recognize the virus, so there's potential for a much decreased response/efficacy of the vaccines. However this is pure speculation at this point. Update: earlier this year it aws speculated that the beta mutation might have increased infectivity and/or the ability to better elude the immune response; that variant eventually died out, and delta is now the prevalent one. It might be a similar case, but it's hard to tell yet, and it's of course better to err on the side of caution.

Mountain_Skies 5y ago
Given the low level of vaccination in the region, I have to wonder if the mutations are in response to something else in the environment rather than the virus working around vaccination induced immunity. That area has extraordinarily high rates of HIV. Is it possible that the virus has mutated to be better able to infect those with HIV too? I'm not a virologist either so the HIV question might be naïve but looking for differences in that environment compared to other parts of the world seems worthwhile.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
  Chiming in as a 3rd level of uneducated layman, but isn't one of the defining features of HIV that it makes it easier for other infections? I'm not sure what adaptation would be required there.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Common wisdom is that immunocompromised individuals, which are unable to battle off the virus and suffer the infection for long periods of time, are fertile grounds for variants evolution. "Rapid viral evolution has been described in immunosuppressed patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Choi et al. described an immunosuppressed patient with antiphospholipid syndrome who was hospitalized in August 2020 and treated with anticoagulants, glucocorticoids, cyclophosphamide, intermittent rituximab, and eculizumab.2 During 152 days of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection in this patient, the investigators identified 31 substitutions and three deletions in genome sequences. Twelve spike mutations were found, including seven in a segment of the receptor-binding domain consisting of 24 amino acids, some at sites linked to immune evasion (478, 484, and 493).6,7 The patient eventually died of severe Covid-19–related pneumonia. " https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756
    - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
      Yeah, that makes much more sense than a mutation to better infect those with HIVE.

satysin 5y ago

Right now the biggest concern is that this variant is the most mutated from the original strain and it is unknown how effective, if at all, our current vaccines are against it. As to is it worse (i.e. more contagious, more deadly, increased risk of hospitalised) than the current Delta variant I think it is too early to say with any confidence.

hollander 5y ago

Apparently it has taken over from the Delta-variant in southern Africa. But I haven't heard anything about how sick you get, how deadly it is, and how effective the current vaccines are. This region is poorly vaccinated, so it could very well be that the vaccines still are effective.

angelzen 5y ago
Delta has petered out in SA. This is perhaps the beginning of a new wave. Hopefully not. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956690743742470 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956690743742470

Mountain_Skies 5y ago

There's a general tendency for viruses to become less deadly when they become easier to spread. But that's just a general tendency and we'll have to wait and see if it's true in this case because from time to time it's not. It does have a large number of mutations. There is a theory being bounced around that the rapid decline in cases in Japan might be due to the virus there having mutated itself out of the ability to copy itself correctly so what is still spreading is falling apart. We can hope for something similar with this variant but it's just that, hope, for now.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

zz865 5y ago

This is a good summary. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421

fabian2k 5y ago

We don't know. But the early data looks concerning enough to warrant attention and closer examination. The early data is always not very reliable, there are some big effects that can skew the data and you don't have many data points yet at that point. There is also no lab work done yet, where you'd directly examine the properties of a variant. This very well could be worse than delta, but it also might not be. It looks more concerning than any variant we've seen since Delta, but we simply don't have hard data that early.

cryoshon 5y ago

it's very early in terms of the data that's out there, but so far it looks quite bad. the ELI5 is that it's expanding really fast, and it is probably at least somewhat resistant to our immune system's first line of defenses that are formed from vaccination or a prior infection. the details on all of those points are very much in flux still, so be aware that the story could change as we learn more. in more detail: the biggest piece of worrying evidence is that it's growing as a proportion of cases in south africa at such an intensely fast rate that it's outcompeting the delta variant as though it isn't even there, which means it's far more transmissible than any other variant. as far as i know, there isn't any information on whether it has higher lethality compared to delta, but my hunch is that it does. the reason why i think it will end up having increased lethality is that it appears to have a complex of mutations that are associated with resistance to antibodies, likely including those generated by vaccination. that will make it take longer for the immune system to form an effective response to infection, allowing the virus to replicate rampantly and cause organ damage for longer. keep in mind every other variant has also exhibited this property at least to a small amount, and in most cases, regardless of vaccination, our bodies are still able to clear the infection. the issue is that this time around, the variant doesn't have just one or two tropisms associated with lower antibody binding efficiency, but perhaps a couple dozen. so, it'll likely be more effective at reinfecting people who have already had covid, too. and even though the variant may be "vaccine resistant", i'd bet that vaccinated people will still fare better than unvaccinated people. unfortunately, our antibody therapies probably won't be as helpful at saving people who are hospitalized. but, our antiviral therapies (including those still in development) shouldn't be any less effective against this variant, which is a very faint silver lining. in conclusion: buckle up, we're probably in for a rough ride.

whimsicalism 5y ago
> biggest piece of worrying evidence is that it's growing as a proportion of cases in south africa at such an intensely fast rate that it's outcompeting the delta variant as though it isn't even there, which means it's far more transmissible than any other variant. OTOH - cases in SA were very low, so we would see this sort of growth of a variant very quickly just due to founder effects without anything nefarious going on. Delta arrived when the background number of cases was much higher so it took longer to become a high proportion of cases.