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I've been playing with https://euphoria.money https://euphoria.money which is a 'fork' of OHM on the Harmony block chain. It brings back memories of high-yield

by vertis 5y ago

I've been playing with https://euphoria.money https://euphoria.money which is a 'fork' of OHM on the Harmony block chain. It brings back memories of high-yield investment programs (HYIP), which are a type of Ponzi scheme. I don't want to accuse them of anything, but it's a little "if it's feels too good to be true, then it probably is" So much of the DeFI yield farming comes across somewhere between Ponzi scheme and the insanity that preceded the GFC, collateralized debt obligation (CDO) and the like.

EMM_386 5y ago
Just looking at that home page, they are saying the APY is 725,002.4%. If that isn't an insane red flag, I don't know what is.
- hi5eyes 5y ago
  plenty of ohm forks/ponzis with 6 figure apy, until they rug/the reward token plummets ofc
- vertis 5y ago
  That APY is misleading in several ways. It implies that if you put $100 in it will be 7250x bigger in a year. But this assumes that the price won't change, i.e. you get one token for $100 now and in a year you can exchange 1 token for $100. In reality this seems unlikely, given that Eurphoria($WAGMI) are giving out 0.81% per 8 hours 12% per 5 days, and doubling the amount of tokens in 30 days. So in 30 days I should be able to get $200 back out, and in 1 year I should be able to get out ~$725000. 2 years and I can take out over 3 billion. Yeah okay. It's more complex than that with bonded DAI, etc, so there is some fractional reserve of capital (at the moment it looks like 10%). The other thing with this and all these APY numbers (yield farming, incl) is that they imply that the numbers will stay the same. I.e. will hold for a whole year. In watching uniswap/sushiswap/etc this is not even remotely accurate. Those numbers (even 200%) are fleeting, they last for a day or a week. It's not stable and therefore those numbers are meaningless. If you're small, even being a liquidity providers on a more stable pair which return ~20-30% (i.e. a possible number) don't stack up once you include Ethereum fees. It takes quite a bit of time to earn back all the fees you spent setting it up (unless you have lots of capital) For comparison, OHM $100 now should be $4000 after one year or $300,000 after two years.
  - EMM_386 5y ago
    >So in 30 days I should be able to get $200 back out, and in 1 year I should be able to get out ~$725000. 2 years and I can take out over 3 billion. Yeah okay. That's why these APYs make zero sense, I don't understand how anyone can pass this off with a straight face (unless this truly is just a game to sucker in people bad at math). You can't turn $100 into $3 billion in two years. Obviously. They are claiming a return of 2% per day. Please. A penny stock can claim it's "average return" is 100% per year because it went from 1 cent to 4 cents in 2 years. That isn't saying much.
A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
It seems like we are really going fast towards game regulation based on what I saw. Gambling with real fake money for teens in a game designed to be basically a pokemon clone with all ways to keep users engaged? It may not be a ponzi scheme, but if it keeps growing, we will hear about it as a new panic in US.
- kevingadd 5y ago
  China has already been aggressively regulating games for the last few years, in part due to how exploitative lootbox/gacha games got over there. The worst of monetized games in the West are already as bad as things were there before regulation if not worse - to a degree, any good guidelines we have here are enforced by Google and Apple for parity with Chinese rules (requirement to publish rates, etc.) Chinese Genshin Impact players are actually more protected from exploitation than players in the US. It's wild. I suspect we'll probably see regions like Europe adopt similar regulations over time.
  - elliekelly 5y ago
    IIRC Belgium and the Netherlands have already banned loot boxes for children as gambling.
- elliekelly 5y ago
  I’ve been seeing a lot of ads recently for mobile games with cash or crypto payouts.
  - meheleventyone 5y ago
    This is going to be super interesting in terms of regulation. For example how Second Life is set up to cash out. How many of these companies are actually compliant?
dexter89_kp3 5y ago
I invested some token money on OHM to learn more about it. The APY figures will come down in 1-2 months based on certain funding/staking levels. I stayed away from all forks of OHM. Lot of interesting projects happening in DeFI 2.0 and DAO space. One example: https://www.klimadao.finance/ https://www.klimadao.finance/
- vertis 5y ago
  klimadao does look interesting, it does have some of the same warning flags (super high APY) as OHM/WAGMI though.

by vertis 5y ago

EMM_386 5y ago

Just looking at that home page, they are saying the APY is 725,002.4%. If that isn't an insane red flag, I don't know what is.

hi5eyes 5y ago
plenty of ohm forks/ponzis with 6 figure apy, until they rug/the reward token plummets ofc
vertis 5y ago
That APY is misleading in several ways. It implies that if you put $100 in it will be 7250x bigger in a year. But this assumes that the price won't change, i.e. you get one token for $100 now and in a year you can exchange 1 token for $100. In reality this seems unlikely, given that Eurphoria($WAGMI) are giving out 0.81% per 8 hours 12% per 5 days, and doubling the amount of tokens in 30 days. So in 30 days I should be able to get $200 back out, and in 1 year I should be able to get out ~$725000. 2 years and I can take out over 3 billion. Yeah okay. It's more complex than that with bonded DAI, etc, so there is some fractional reserve of capital (at the moment it looks like 10%). The other thing with this and all these APY numbers (yield farming, incl) is that they imply that the numbers will stay the same. I.e. will hold for a whole year. In watching uniswap/sushiswap/etc this is not even remotely accurate. Those numbers (even 200%) are fleeting, they last for a day or a week. It's not stable and therefore those numbers are meaningless. If you're small, even being a liquidity providers on a more stable pair which return ~20-30% (i.e. a possible number) don't stack up once you include Ethereum fees. It takes quite a bit of time to earn back all the fees you spent setting it up (unless you have lots of capital) For comparison, OHM $100 now should be $4000 after one year or $300,000 after two years.
- EMM_386 5y ago
  >So in 30 days I should be able to get $200 back out, and in 1 year I should be able to get out ~$725000. 2 years and I can take out over 3 billion. Yeah okay. That's why these APYs make zero sense, I don't understand how anyone can pass this off with a straight face (unless this truly is just a game to sucker in people bad at math). You can't turn $100 into $3 billion in two years. Obviously. They are claiming a return of 2% per day. Please. A penny stock can claim it's "average return" is 100% per year because it went from 1 cent to 4 cents in 2 years. That isn't saying much.

A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago

It seems like we are really going fast towards game regulation based on what I saw. Gambling with real fake money for teens in a game designed to be basically a pokemon clone with all ways to keep users engaged? It may not be a ponzi scheme, but if it keeps growing, we will hear about it as a new panic in US.

kevingadd 5y ago
China has already been aggressively regulating games for the last few years, in part due to how exploitative lootbox/gacha games got over there. The worst of monetized games in the West are already as bad as things were there before regulation if not worse - to a degree, any good guidelines we have here are enforced by Google and Apple for parity with Chinese rules (requirement to publish rates, etc.) Chinese Genshin Impact players are actually more protected from exploitation than players in the US. It's wild. I suspect we'll probably see regions like Europe adopt similar regulations over time.
- elliekelly 5y ago
  IIRC Belgium and the Netherlands have already banned loot boxes for children as gambling.
elliekelly 5y ago
I’ve been seeing a lot of ads recently for mobile games with cash or crypto payouts.
- meheleventyone 5y ago
  This is going to be super interesting in terms of regulation. For example how Second Life is set up to cash out. How many of these companies are actually compliant?

dexter89_kp3 5y ago

I invested some token money on OHM to learn more about it. The APY figures will come down in 1-2 months based on certain funding/staking levels. I stayed away from all forks of OHM. Lot of interesting projects happening in DeFI 2.0 and DAO space. One example: https://www.klimadao.finance/ https://www.klimadao.finance/

vertis 5y ago
klimadao does look interesting, it does have some of the same warning flags (super high APY) as OHM/WAGMI though.