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Russia is massing troops on Ukraine’s. Most likely another war will happen there shortly. China is becoming hyper aggressive towards Taiwan. Serious war is ar

Russia is massing troops on Ukraine’s. Most likely another war will happen there shortly. China is becoming hyper aggressive towards Taiwan. Serious war is around the corner. Not hypothetical wars.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
newyankee 5y ago
China is also amassing troops along Indian borders with routine skirmishes
Quarrelsome 5y ago
serious war is always "around the corner". Remember that the fall of Rome was predicted by doom mongers for hundreds of years before it transpired to be true. Should today transpire to be similar (e.g. window of hundreds of years) than you're more likely to be wrong about this than right. For example your narrative is failing to account for the horror of mutually assured destruction which is a strong psychological factor in wars between major powers.
- treeman79 5y ago
  MAD means nations are free to wage war up to a certain point. Maybe a couple of islands and a bit of India. Then a break for a few years. Repeat now and then.
  - Quarrelsome 5y ago
    sure that's standard fare, and a far cry from the doom drums of a world war III blitzkrieg that appears to be a general doomer theme on this subject. I mean Russia annexed Crimea six years ago and we're all still alive and Putin has a lifespan so its not even an unstoppable trend.
Hnrobert42 5y ago
Sure, but are you saying these are mostly because of climate change?
- treeman79 5y ago
  These have nothing to do with Climate change. They are however immediate.
kunagi7 5y ago
We are under a new cold War and people don't seem to realize this. Russia has had troops around Ukraine for the last 7 years. The Donetsk and Lugansk "republics" exist since 2014. Russia is waiting for Ukraine's move since then. As long as USA has bases in Japan and has military presence in Taiwan... China won't make a move. It's easier to wait for USA to leave though. We'll see continuous provocation between the blocks (most recently, Afghanistan Taliban Regime, Belorussian usage of immigrants against the EU, etc). But a serious war around the corner sounds a bit too far from reality.
- hef19898 5y ago
  I hope so. Putin was the first to push the limits. He got away with Ukraine without any serious response from the West. Now he is encouraged, and the only question remains is whether or not NATO is really ready to got to war over the Baltics. NATOs de-facto defeat in Afghanistan definitely didn't help in projecting strength, nor is the constant in-fighting within the EU. China is doing the same now with Taiwan. Try calling Taiwan a country as a movie star -> forced apology. Bodies like the IOC already falted. No guarantee that sometime someone tries, or feels forced to try for whatever reason, to push it. If the West doesn't react to that, well, then all the others will push the limits as well.
  - kunagi7 5y ago
    After the pro-EU Ukrainians ignited the Euromaidan movement (to remove a Kremlin aligned president) a civil war started in Ukraine. At that point Putin supported one side of the war and got Crimea for almost nothing. There's also the closely related Donbas war which never stopped. So he got the first place at it. USA has lost its image of "being the police of the world" and the countries that depend on that image are suffering. Their future looks quite grim. Besides that, Taiwan isn't recognized by the UN since 1971 and by the IOC since 1981. The west didn't react back then either.
    - hef19898 5y ago
      Regarding Taiwan, I honestly never understood why everyone caved to China already back then. Ok, today it is all about money. Back then, I don't know. Maybe there was hope to unite China under a pro-West government? Because even the DDR and North Korea are / were recognized.
jkepler 5y ago
> Serious war is around the corner. Not hypothetical wars. Serious war may look different from the past of nation-state wars. We're living through the emergence of network states. Given how the Internet enables non-tangible property (I.e., domain names that one can use to build businesses, associations, non-profits; bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto-projects) through communications protocols and cryptographic mathematics, its no longer necessary to wage physical war to gain an advantage. Thus we see a massive rise in persistent threat actors, which could be world war three already happening, but we don't recognize it yet because we're used to observing nation-state wars, not network state wars. Perhaps the modern age of nation state dominance ran from the Peace of Westphalia to 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the design of the World-Wide-Web by Berners-Lee.
- DonHopkins 5y ago
  You mean WW3 was WWW and we just haven't noticed it yet?
- count 5y ago
  There will be actual kinetic warfare between Westphalian nation states ALSO. Just because there's 'new' war, doesn't mean the old dirty war will go away. Especially because crypto can't replace aquifers or reduce flooding and other things lost in global change. So, you're not wrong, but also omitting a significant actual current threat.

Russia is massing troops on Ukraine’s. Most likely another war will happen there shortly. China is becoming hyper aggressive towards Taiwan. Serious war is around the corner. Not hypothetical wars.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

newyankee 5y ago

China is also amassing troops along Indian borders with routine skirmishes

Quarrelsome 5y ago

serious war is always "around the corner". Remember that the fall of Rome was predicted by doom mongers for hundreds of years before it transpired to be true. Should today transpire to be similar (e.g. window of hundreds of years) than you're more likely to be wrong about this than right. For example your narrative is failing to account for the horror of mutually assured destruction which is a strong psychological factor in wars between major powers.

treeman79 5y ago
MAD means nations are free to wage war up to a certain point. Maybe a couple of islands and a bit of India. Then a break for a few years. Repeat now and then.
- Quarrelsome 5y ago
  sure that's standard fare, and a far cry from the doom drums of a world war III blitzkrieg that appears to be a general doomer theme on this subject. I mean Russia annexed Crimea six years ago and we're all still alive and Putin has a lifespan so its not even an unstoppable trend.

Hnrobert42 5y ago

Sure, but are you saying these are mostly because of climate change?

treeman79 5y ago
These have nothing to do with Climate change. They are however immediate.

kunagi7 5y ago

We are under a new cold War and people don't seem to realize this. Russia has had troops around Ukraine for the last 7 years. The Donetsk and Lugansk "republics" exist since 2014. Russia is waiting for Ukraine's move since then. As long as USA has bases in Japan and has military presence in Taiwan... China won't make a move. It's easier to wait for USA to leave though. We'll see continuous provocation between the blocks (most recently, Afghanistan Taliban Regime, Belorussian usage of immigrants against the EU, etc). But a serious war around the corner sounds a bit too far from reality.

hef19898 5y ago
I hope so. Putin was the first to push the limits. He got away with Ukraine without any serious response from the West. Now he is encouraged, and the only question remains is whether or not NATO is really ready to got to war over the Baltics. NATOs de-facto defeat in Afghanistan definitely didn't help in projecting strength, nor is the constant in-fighting within the EU. China is doing the same now with Taiwan. Try calling Taiwan a country as a movie star -> forced apology. Bodies like the IOC already falted. No guarantee that sometime someone tries, or feels forced to try for whatever reason, to push it. If the West doesn't react to that, well, then all the others will push the limits as well.
- kunagi7 5y ago
  After the pro-EU Ukrainians ignited the Euromaidan movement (to remove a Kremlin aligned president) a civil war started in Ukraine. At that point Putin supported one side of the war and got Crimea for almost nothing. There's also the closely related Donbas war which never stopped. So he got the first place at it. USA has lost its image of "being the police of the world" and the countries that depend on that image are suffering. Their future looks quite grim. Besides that, Taiwan isn't recognized by the UN since 1971 and by the IOC since 1981. The west didn't react back then either.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Regarding Taiwan, I honestly never understood why everyone caved to China already back then. Ok, today it is all about money. Back then, I don't know. Maybe there was hope to unite China under a pro-West government? Because even the DDR and North Korea are / were recognized.

jkepler 5y ago

> Serious war is around the corner. Not hypothetical wars. Serious war may look different from the past of nation-state wars. We're living through the emergence of network states. Given how the Internet enables non-tangible property (I.e., domain names that one can use to build businesses, associations, non-profits; bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto-projects) through communications protocols and cryptographic mathematics, its no longer necessary to wage physical war to gain an advantage. Thus we see a massive rise in persistent threat actors, which could be world war three already happening, but we don't recognize it yet because we're used to observing nation-state wars, not network state wars. Perhaps the modern age of nation state dominance ran from the Peace of Westphalia to 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the design of the World-Wide-Web by Berners-Lee.

DonHopkins 5y ago
You mean WW3 was WWW and we just haven't noticed it yet?
count 5y ago
There will be actual kinetic warfare between Westphalian nation states ALSO. Just because there's 'new' war, doesn't mean the old dirty war will go away. Especially because crypto can't replace aquifers or reduce flooding and other things lost in global change. So, you're not wrong, but also omitting a significant actual current threat.