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> 3. When a new mutation is noted to be spreading fast its usually because of the nature of super spreader events and not because the new mutation is more or le
by bhouston 5y ago
> 3. When a new mutation is noted to be spreading fast its usually because of the nature of super spreader events and not because the new mutation is more or less transmissible.
Mostly true but in some very major cases it was because the variant did spread faster in general. Such as Delta and the British variant before hand.
- ummonk 5y agoYeah by the time fast spreading variants get picked up by the press, they usually are indeed more transmissible, rather than merely founder effects / super spreader events. We've seen this time and time again to the point that the rational evaluation is to assume the new variant is indeed more transmissible. Especially for this variant which is overtaking Delta so quickly that it can't really be explained by super spreader events.
- tinus_hn 5y agoIf such a variant was not spreading faster, how would it ever become a dominant new strain? Just because of some unlucky incident on the other side of the world?
- bhouston 5y agoI think the initial fast spread can be incidental, a super spreader event. But if it has lasting ability to displace other variants, especially across multiple countries, then it is likely just easier to spread. Basically superspreader events can artificially boost a variant for a bit -- it is basically noise. You need to look at a longer time frame to be sure.