4 ms·

90% of new infections being this new variant should be quite alarming

xienze 5y ago
A variant outcompeting other variants isn’t in and of itself concerning. Viruses mutate in order spread more effectively, not surprising. Does it produce milder or more extreme symptoms? That’s the interesting part and the article doesn’t go into any specifics.
- culi 5y ago
  Hmmm I'm totally just babbling here but this makes me think if it'd be possible to just engineer a harmless strain that is more effective at being transmitted (or perhaps even circumvents vaccines better). Then instead of worrying about vaccinating people we could just try to have that strain spread faster than the harmful ones A similar thing happened in some South American countries with a cholera outbreak. Strains that made people more sick forced them to stay inside whereas the more harmless strains allowed people to socialize more and the harmless ones ended up spreading faster
  - chimprich 5y ago
    That's not an entirely new idea, and it's not entirely crazy, but it has a lot of issues. What are the ethics in engineering a new virus and deliberately infecting people? What happens if some of those people die? What happens if your variant that has been engineered to spread extremely effectively mutates into something more lethal? How do you test your engineered virus? Large-scale tests on people? How would that be faster or more effective than producing a new vaccine and testing that instead? What happens if your tests show that the engineered virus is not as benevolent as you hoped, and is actually rather horrific? Can you put the genie back in the bottle?
    - BbzzbB 5y ago
      >What happens if your variant that has been engineered to spread extremely effectively mutates into something more lethal? This alone should make it a non-option, there will be no way to contain it or stop it from mutating, I fail to see how it wouldn't just be a question of time the same way COVID variants are. The consequences could be disastrous and simply worsen the situation.
  - yozel 5y ago
    I'm not an expert at all, but I don't think viruses are mutually exclusive. Spread of the new strain can be fast and can became widespread, but can't decrease or affect the harmful one.
  - cblconfederate 5y ago
    It would be likely to have engineered itself if that was the case. Unfortunately, afaik so far there isn't a correlation between any specific mutation and milder disease
wirrbel 5y ago
I am definitely alarmed. What I learned while doom-scrolling * SA has a <50% vaccination rate, so its not quite clear whether its spread could be circumvent vaccine-induced antibodies * SA is past its delta-wave, so this variant has made relatively huge gain over delta, but absolute numbers are still fairly moderate. I'm all in for taking necessary precautions for slowing down the arrival of the new variant in other countries, but it seems it isn't clear yet that the effect we see in South Africa will replicate elsewhere.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > * SA has a <50% vaccination rate it's closer to 25% countrywide, according to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF But this source says 35%: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-... It will be higher in urban areas, and lower outside of them.
ukie 5y ago
Fear mongering. Let people live their lives.

A variant outcompeting other variants isn’t in and of itself concerning. Viruses mutate in order spread more effectively, not surprising. Does it produce milder or more extreme symptoms? That’s the interesting part and the article doesn’t go into any specifics.

culi 5y ago
Hmmm I'm totally just babbling here but this makes me think if it'd be possible to just engineer a harmless strain that is more effective at being transmitted (or perhaps even circumvents vaccines better). Then instead of worrying about vaccinating people we could just try to have that strain spread faster than the harmful ones A similar thing happened in some South American countries with a cholera outbreak. Strains that made people more sick forced them to stay inside whereas the more harmless strains allowed people to socialize more and the harmless ones ended up spreading faster
- chimprich 5y ago
  That's not an entirely new idea, and it's not entirely crazy, but it has a lot of issues. What are the ethics in engineering a new virus and deliberately infecting people? What happens if some of those people die? What happens if your variant that has been engineered to spread extremely effectively mutates into something more lethal? How do you test your engineered virus? Large-scale tests on people? How would that be faster or more effective than producing a new vaccine and testing that instead? What happens if your tests show that the engineered virus is not as benevolent as you hoped, and is actually rather horrific? Can you put the genie back in the bottle?
  - BbzzbB 5y ago
    >What happens if your variant that has been engineered to spread extremely effectively mutates into something more lethal? This alone should make it a non-option, there will be no way to contain it or stop it from mutating, I fail to see how it wouldn't just be a question of time the same way COVID variants are. The consequences could be disastrous and simply worsen the situation.
- yozel 5y ago
  I'm not an expert at all, but I don't think viruses are mutually exclusive. Spread of the new strain can be fast and can became widespread, but can't decrease or affect the harmful one.
- cblconfederate 5y ago
  It would be likely to have engineered itself if that was the case. Unfortunately, afaik so far there isn't a correlation between any specific mutation and milder disease

wirrbel 5y ago

I am definitely alarmed. What I learned while doom-scrolling * SA has a <50% vaccination rate, so its not quite clear whether its spread could be circumvent vaccine-induced antibodies * SA is past its delta-wave, so this variant has made relatively huge gain over delta, but absolute numbers are still fairly moderate. I'm all in for taking necessary precautions for slowing down the arrival of the new variant in other countries, but it seems it isn't clear yet that the effect we see in South Africa will replicate elsewhere.

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> * SA has a <50% vaccination rate it's closer to 25% countrywide, according to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF But this source says 35%: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-... It will be higher in urban areas, and lower outside of them.

ukie 5y ago

Fear mongering. Let people live their lives.