4 ms·

> feel like anyone who has contributed _as an expert in epidemiology_ has a good track record on correcting their statements I think this feeling would be misg

• bertil 5y ago
  The only reference to a forecast in that article is a "chair of the department of medical ethics", not an epidemiologist, on a television program, not a tweet that they can comment.
• threeseed 5y ago
  The primary author seems to have a lot of incorrect positions though: "Ioannidis estimated that deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 could potentially be as low as 10,000—or they could approach levels not seen since the flu pandemic of 1918" "writing to President Trump of his concerns about the lack of evidence regarding the efficacy of lockdowns" And just like with the Y2K bug one of the issues with takes like this is that it ignores all of the work that people did to prevent it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. If there were no vaccines, lockdowns or similar health measures maybe the predictions would have been accurate. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ioannidis-affair-a-tale-of-major-scientific-overreaction/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ioannidis-aff...