6 ms·

So, basically, another Covid variant, but much badder than Delta? I’m a bit fed up with coronaviruses tbh.

by rich_sasha 5y ago

Yuioup 5y ago
We all are.
geraldcombs 5y ago
The coronaviruses don't appear to be fed up with us, unfortunately.
throwamon 5y ago
Honestly I'm more fed up with people who can't seem to be able to sit quietly in their homes for two weeks.
- orra 5y ago
  “Two weeks” is quite the litotes. COVID-19 has been around /two years/.
  - throwamon 5y ago
    Exactly! Imagine how many diseases we would have eradicated if we all just stayed at home for that long! Not just diseases, by the way - as Pascal would have said, "All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone."
    - orra 5y ago
      Ah, I hadn't grasped your irony. I heard it suggested somewhat seriously recently, which miffed me a bit. Lockdowns were probably the least awful option in early 2020, but as you know it doesn't make them a great idea now.
      - Pyramus 5y ago
        My understanding is that parent was not joking. It's a great thought experiment though, and let's not forget that humanity did eradicate a number of diseases.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
        orra 5y ago
        We did, although my response would be that's because vaccines are wonderful. (And, for other diseases, because of improved sanitation and nutrition.)
- nishs 5y ago
  I wholeheartedly agree if worded as "people who can afford to but don't seem to be able to sit quietly in their homes for two weeks". I guess that's what you intended anyway. (not everyone can afford to, e.g. they need to work for money for food, or they need to provide _actually_ essential public services.)
- thenewnormal 5y ago
  House arrest isn't the punishment it used to be!
- tinus_hn 5y ago
  I’m more fed up with people who can’t seem to able to grasp that that has been tried before multiple times and shown not to work. Corona spreads through wildlife and it’s endemic. It’s never going away. Not with vaccines and not with 15 days to stop the spread.
vletal 5y ago
Hopefully not worse. The current assumption seems to be that it could be different enough to avoid existing immunity gained against previous strains.
- op00to 5y ago
  Remember the spike needs to bind to the ACE receptor which is what vaccines target, so if it escapes vaccines, it probably isn’t going to be as easily infectious. Maybe.
  - michaelmrose 5y ago
    If that was true in this scenario why would it have gained so much victim market share in South Africa so much quicker than Delta did?
    - wk_end 5y ago
      SA is very undervaccinated (less than 25% per the link) so it's probably too early to say either way.
      - chimprich 5y ago
        SA has low levels of vaccination, but they've had high infection rates. There should be substantial levels of immunity to earlier variants in the population. It's not directly comparable, but it should be possible to get some idea of how well the new variant escapes existing immunity.
  - vletal 5y ago
    Your answer seems to assume that the distribution of spike proteins which binds to the ACE is very close to the one for which we obtain immunity by getting vaccinated. Yet we can already see that Delta binds better than the early strains and the efficacy of existing vaccines against it is like 60%, which contradict that. Does it make sense?
thenewnormal 5y ago
We don't even know what it does - bit early to say things like this. FWIW, coronaviruses have been around for a very long time. 30% of common colds are coronaviruses.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  Aha! So in particular, this could be the prophecised variant that is super infectious, benign, and ends Covid as we know it? I feel myself slowly peeling off from reality. > FWIW, coronaviruses have been around for a very long time. 30% of common colds are coronaviruses. I can’t say I have a particularly soft spot for colds. They just don’t do it for me, I could easily live without them.
trenchgun 5y ago
Stop feeding then.
lamontcg 5y ago
The infection rate in South Africa when this variant arose was extremely low. This variant has not had to compete with Delta at all. It established itself in a vacuum of infections, and it may all be due to founder effects, with a new wave of infections due to behavior or other changes. I'm also very skeptical that P681H is suddenly going to flip the script and start displacing P681R. SA also has low vaccination rates and its not obvious that this variant arose because of selection for immune evasion (even if it did, immune evasion from NAbs is probably inevitable and will happen forever).

So, basically, another Covid variant, but much badder than Delta? I’m a bit fed up with coronaviruses tbh.

Yuioup 5y ago

We all are.

geraldcombs 5y ago

The coronaviruses don't appear to be fed up with us, unfortunately.

throwamon 5y ago

Honestly I'm more fed up with people who can't seem to be able to sit quietly in their homes for two weeks.

orra 5y ago
“Two weeks” is quite the litotes. COVID-19 has been around /two years/.
- throwamon 5y ago
  Exactly! Imagine how many diseases we would have eradicated if we all just stayed at home for that long! Not just diseases, by the way - as Pascal would have said, "All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone."
  - orra 5y ago
    Ah, I hadn't grasped your irony. I heard it suggested somewhat seriously recently, which miffed me a bit. Lockdowns were probably the least awful option in early 2020, but as you know it doesn't make them a great idea now.
    - Pyramus 5y ago
      My understanding is that parent was not joking. It's a great thought experiment though, and let's not forget that humanity did eradicate a number of diseases.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - orra 5y ago
        We did, although my response would be that's because vaccines are wonderful. (And, for other diseases, because of improved sanitation and nutrition.)
nishs 5y ago
I wholeheartedly agree if worded as "people who can afford to but don't seem to be able to sit quietly in their homes for two weeks". I guess that's what you intended anyway. (not everyone can afford to, e.g. they need to work for money for food, or they need to provide _actually_ essential public services.)
thenewnormal 5y ago
House arrest isn't the punishment it used to be!
tinus_hn 5y ago
I’m more fed up with people who can’t seem to able to grasp that that has been tried before multiple times and shown not to work. Corona spreads through wildlife and it’s endemic. It’s never going away. Not with vaccines and not with 15 days to stop the spread.

vletal 5y ago

Hopefully not worse. The current assumption seems to be that it could be different enough to avoid existing immunity gained against previous strains.

op00to 5y ago
Remember the spike needs to bind to the ACE receptor which is what vaccines target, so if it escapes vaccines, it probably isn’t going to be as easily infectious. Maybe.
- michaelmrose 5y ago
  If that was true in this scenario why would it have gained so much victim market share in South Africa so much quicker than Delta did?
  - wk_end 5y ago
    SA is very undervaccinated (less than 25% per the link) so it's probably too early to say either way.
    - chimprich 5y ago
      SA has low levels of vaccination, but they've had high infection rates. There should be substantial levels of immunity to earlier variants in the population. It's not directly comparable, but it should be possible to get some idea of how well the new variant escapes existing immunity.
- vletal 5y ago
  Your answer seems to assume that the distribution of spike proteins which binds to the ACE is very close to the one for which we obtain immunity by getting vaccinated. Yet we can already see that Delta binds better than the early strains and the efficacy of existing vaccines against it is like 60%, which contradict that. Does it make sense?

thenewnormal 5y ago

We don't even know what it does - bit early to say things like this. FWIW, coronaviruses have been around for a very long time. 30% of common colds are coronaviruses.

rich_sasha 5y ago
Aha! So in particular, this could be the prophecised variant that is super infectious, benign, and ends Covid as we know it? I feel myself slowly peeling off from reality. > FWIW, coronaviruses have been around for a very long time. 30% of common colds are coronaviruses. I can’t say I have a particularly soft spot for colds. They just don’t do it for me, I could easily live without them.

trenchgun 5y ago

Stop feeding then.

lamontcg 5y ago

The infection rate in South Africa when this variant arose was extremely low. This variant has not had to compete with Delta at all. It established itself in a vacuum of infections, and it may all be due to founder effects, with a new wave of infections due to behavior or other changes. I'm also very skeptical that P681H is suddenly going to flip the script and start displacing P681R. SA also has low vaccination rates and its not obvious that this variant arose because of selection for immune evasion (even if it did, immune evasion from NAbs is probably inevitable and will happen forever).