4 ms·
the speed within which B.1.1.529 became dominant is really concerning
by chaoskanzlerin 5y ago
the speed within which B.1.1.529 became dominant is really concerning
- _Microft 5y agoIf it is confirmed to spread like this chart makes it look like, this is very bad. https://nitter.net/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421 https://nitter.net/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421
- zx76 5y agoYes, I've also been really surprised by this. The fact that South African wastewater coronavirus detection is spiking dramatically [1] makes me wonder if this variant could be a genuine step up from the current status quo. [1] https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-11-25-the-covid-19-fourth-wave-is-looming-in-december-wastewater-surveillance-gives-us-all-the-signposts/ https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-11-25-the-covid...
- jsnell 5y agoIt's easy for a variant to become dominant just by random chance if the prevalence is low. That's the case here. Alpha and Delta were quite different, they took over when the case counts were high, so it was basically impossible for founder effects to be the reason. So in this case we need to rely much more on the circumstantial evidence (which admittedly seems pretty solid on a first skim).
- bertil 5y agoThis is still a handful of cases (10 total, the only comparison curb I've seen is on three cases in Botswana; there could be one on six other cases in South Africa). We’ll know more soon, and hopefully, local health authorities will contain anything worrisome, but this is not yet like Delta with thousands of cases emerging overnight in some countries.
- threeseed 5y agoNot really comparable to Delta. Given that so much of the world is vaccinated.
- bertil 5y agoIf you mean that Delta original advance wasn’t hindered by the vaccines, but Nu will be… it’s not clear that the vaccines will be very effective if it spreads. The spike protein looks quite different.