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> they simply have to pay (slightly) more than other TSMC customers I'd argue that they need to pay significantly more than other customer in order to get such
by mdasen 5y ago
> they simply have to pay (slightly) more than other TSMC customers
I'd argue that they need to pay significantly more than other customer in order to get such preferential treatment.
In a short-sighted view of things, you only need to pay slightly more. If AMD is willing to pay $1 and Apple is willing to pay $1.01, you make more profit selling to Apple. However, as this article shows, you might end up losing the other business if you offer Apple such preferential treatment. If Apple isn't going to use all of your capacity year-round, you don't want to alienate the other companies whose orders you rely on.
I think Apple likely has to pay a significant premium for getting access to the latest and greatest to the detriment of competitors. It's not in TSMC's interests to become too dependent on Apple. If AMD and Qualcomm mutiny and their orders start boosting Samsung's foundries with more money for R&D, TSMC could find itself 1) competing against a better-funded Samsung foundry; 2) with one customer that now has leverage over TSMC and getting paid less.
If AMD and Qualcomm move all their orders to Samsung, it provides Samsung with the money to reinvest in its chip business. If they're able to make long-term commitments to Samsung, that's bad for TSMC since it will allow Samsung to invest knowing it will make a profit (just as TSMC has been able to do that with Apple's commitments).
Likewise, if the two other giant chip design companies move to Samsung exclusively, that leaves TSMC in a tough negotiating position with Apple. Before, Apple would have to compete against AMD and Qualcomm for capacity. Now if AMD and Qualcomm have made long-term commitments to Samsung, TSMC becomes really reliant on Apple and Apple will know that TSMC has capacity they can't sell elsewhere. Sure, MediaTek and others exist, but it swings the power away from TSMC and toward Apple. Let's say that Apple was using 40% of TSMC's capacity, AMD 25%, Qualcomm 25%, and MediaTek 10%. Now AMD and Qualcomm make long-term commitments to Samsung. Apple knows that TSMC's orders have dropped 50% and that gives Apple a lot of power.
Giving Apple the best to the detriment of AMD, Qualcomm, and others is a risky play for TSMC. They'll definitely want to be getting very well compensated for it, not merely slightly more. They'll want to make sure that what Apple is offering is enough to offset the substantial risk of angering competing chip design companies who might look for fabs elsewhere.
- TrainedMonkey 5y agoNot sure I totally buy your point, but it does sound interesting/intriguing enough for an Asianometry video: https://www.youtube.com/c/Asianometry/videos https://www.youtube.com/c/Asianometry/videos
- ricw 5y agoApple is 20% of TSMCs revenue. That’s enough to make such demands. On top of that they’re likely also paying top dollar.
- tooltalk 5y agoApple is not known for overpaying. Apple is however a significant volume customer and volume customers usually enjoy a huge discount that smaller customers don't get. So in addition to preferential allotment, Apple is probably paying less for the same node.
- danudey 5y agoApple may not overpay, but if they're willing to pre-pay multiple billions of dollars that's a huge incentive for a company like TSMC, who gain the ability to instantly (well, "instantly") launch capital projects, rather than having to wait for three years of revenue to roll in first. For all we know, TSMC is taking all that 3nm Apple money and putting it into producing new 3nm fab lines, which would honestly be better for everyone in the long term (except Intel, I suppose).
- tooltalk 5y agoSure, Apple's prepay financial arrangement might have some outsized influence in smaller, riskier, or declining businesses, such as GTAT or JDI, but there is nothing special about pre-pay, especially in this market and this particular industry. Top fabless makers from Qualcomm, to nVidia, to AMD, to TSMC are flushed with money and are desperately competing for capacity. In fact, TSMC recently disclosed that they received over $3.8B in such prepay, or "temporary receipt" from various customers for their future nodes [1]. Further, Samsung and TSMC routinely spend many more billions on capex every year. Both companies not only have many billions stashed away, but also have the means to finance them without relying on Apple. For instance, Samsung's capex in 2020 was nearly $30B; TSMC ~$25B, vs Apple's $7B. Sure, Apple is a big consumer of the latest nodes, but the process nodes will advance with or without Apple or Apple's money. [1] https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-collects-huge-prepayments https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-collects-huge-prepaym...