4 ms·

If the emerging AI is smart and can read, absolutely nothing at all, until it’s too late! :-)

by zellyn 5y ago

zellyn 5y ago
A non-tongue-in-cheek answer would be sudden significant qualitative progress in chip designs produced with aid of computers.
- WJW 5y ago
  Isn't that all chip designs these days?
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    Well, none of them are designed by AIs. (So far as I know...) But for the singularity, we need either chips getting exponentially better, or algorithms getting exponentially better. In fact, "exponentially" isn't enough. e^kt is just Moore's Law. For a real singularity, we need something that approaches infinity in a finite amount of time; that takes faster than exponential (no matter what the value of k is). So, given the limitations of silicon, the singularity needs either completely different chips or completely different algorithms. It seems to me, then, that if there's going to be a singularity, it will come from one of two places: 1. P=NP. A (low exponent) polynomial algorithm for NP complete problems would open some fundamentally new doors. My personal suspicion, though, is that this would not be enough for a true singularity. 2. Quantum computing. This could get us completely new chips as well as completely new algorithms. Could. This presumes that quantum computing is both practical and widely (rather than narrowly) revolutionary. That is, it would have to change (or replace) everything, not just a few things. Databases, not just factoring numbers. I still am skeptical of the singularity. But if it's going to happen, my money currently is on quantum computing as the avenue.
    - WJW 5y ago
      The GP post mentioned "with the aid of" computers, not "designed exclusively by" computers. I don't think there is a single current chip design that is not heavily leaning on EDA software make it all work.
      - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
        But I don't think we can get to the singularity with humans in the loop. Chips have to get better faster than the humans can do the designing, even "with the aid of" computers.
ceejayoz 5y ago
If it’s really smart, nothing at all, ever. Straight into the simulation for us. Maybe it happened already!
- newsbinator 5y ago
  No idea why it would keep us around in simulation
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    Pets?
londons_explore 5y ago
If you've ever seen a child growing up, you know that they don't just suddenly outsmart you. It starts with really dumb things, like playing hide and seek while trying to hide behind a postcard, and being really surprised that they were found so quickly! The AI would both need to get smart, and get smart with nobody seeing those 'dumb things' that children do along the way.
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > The AI would both need to get smart, and get smart with nobody seeing those 'dumb things' that children do along the way. Have you used a voice assistant lately? We accept a lot of dumb things from current AI-ish setups.

If the emerging AI is smart and can read, absolutely nothing at all, until it’s too late! :-)

by zellyn 5y ago

If the emerging AI is smart and can read, absolutely nothing at all, until it’s too late! :-)

A non-tongue-in-cheek answer would be sudden significant qualitative progress in chip designs produced with aid of computers.

WJW 5y ago
Isn't that all chip designs these days?
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  Well, none of them are designed by AIs. (So far as I know...) But for the singularity, we need either chips getting exponentially better, or algorithms getting exponentially better. In fact, "exponentially" isn't enough. e^kt is just Moore's Law. For a real singularity, we need something that approaches infinity in a finite amount of time; that takes faster than exponential (no matter what the value of k is). So, given the limitations of silicon, the singularity needs either completely different chips or completely different algorithms. It seems to me, then, that if there's going to be a singularity, it will come from one of two places: 1. P=NP. A (low exponent) polynomial algorithm for NP complete problems would open some fundamentally new doors. My personal suspicion, though, is that this would not be enough for a true singularity. 2. Quantum computing. This could get us completely new chips as well as completely new algorithms. Could. This presumes that quantum computing is both practical and widely (rather than narrowly) revolutionary. That is, it would have to change (or replace) everything, not just a few things. Databases, not just factoring numbers. I still am skeptical of the singularity. But if it's going to happen, my money currently is on quantum computing as the avenue.
  - WJW 5y ago
    The GP post mentioned "with the aid of" computers, not "designed exclusively by" computers. I don't think there is a single current chip design that is not heavily leaning on EDA software make it all work.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      But I don't think we can get to the singularity with humans in the loop. Chips have to get better faster than the humans can do the designing, even "with the aid of" computers.

ceejayoz 5y ago

If it’s really smart, nothing at all, ever. Straight into the simulation for us. Maybe it happened already!

newsbinator 5y ago
No idea why it would keep us around in simulation
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  Pets?

londons_explore 5y ago

If you've ever seen a child growing up, you know that they don't just suddenly outsmart you. It starts with really dumb things, like playing hide and seek while trying to hide behind a postcard, and being really surprised that they were found so quickly! The AI would both need to get smart, and get smart with nobody seeing those 'dumb things' that children do along the way.

ceejayoz 5y ago
> The AI would both need to get smart, and get smart with nobody seeing those 'dumb things' that children do along the way. Have you used a voice assistant lately? We accept a lot of dumb things from current AI-ish setups.