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Right, and I’m saying they are not the only entity with access, because all you have to do to get into the golden cage is have a really good idea and get financ

Right, and I’m saying they are not the only entity with access, because all you have to do to get into the golden cage is have a really good idea and get financing, and that is possible. Letting everyone else get your idea of a fair share of production capacity to produce sub-par chips is not my idea of good progress. If they truly deserve capacity allocated to them, they should demonstrate they can design better chips, convince someone with money to fund it, and do what Apple’s done (buying TSMC a fabrication plant). That they haven’t done this, and they are punished by not having the cash to acquire production capacity, means that they will feel the pain, and have to start innovating their way out. This is what capitalism gives you: the fire under your butt to innovate. That’s how it’s good. If you prefer the lazy to succeed anyway, you are free to feel that way. Edit, to address what you said exactly: this is the way in which losing out on capacity forces them to compete harder. If they fall behind in benchmarks for a few years, and you read that as a lack of competition, you are wrong: it is perfect competition, they fell behind, and are now working harder than they were before to design something better. Just because capitalism in the long term usually gets competitors to converge does not mean a temporary winner in the lead indicates competition is not occurring. Apple delivered a jolt to a market that had been flatlining, so there is more competition now than there was before.

sudosysgen 5y ago
But the chips are not sub-par. The entire point of my argument is that at an equal lithography the competition can outperform Apple. The performance advantage that Apple can demonstrate is under the margin of improvement from 7nm to 5nm all else being equal (RAM, TDP, etc..) There was already a fire under their butt before Apple. Both AMD, Intel, NVidia and even Qualcomm are competing against each other. And that competition yielded architectures that are at least on par and very probably better than what Apple can do. They can design better chips. They just don't have as much money as Apple. It's something that Apple already did before with, for example, the first generation of small HDDs, they bought out the entire production line and their competitors, despite being able to make MP3s that were just as good, had to wait for years to access the parts.
- cormacrelf 5y ago
  I wouldn't be too worried. If they are competitive designs, they will be able to get money to have them manufactured. There is lots of money to be made doing it, so there is lots of capital available. I don't think this will result in a huge setback to humanity's progress like you are making out. But for now, you can't fault Apple at all for planning for this better than they did, but you can fault these companies for not raising tons of cash in anticipation this would be an issue. Darwinian capitalism applies to supply chain strategists too.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    The designs are competitive, and they can't get the money to have them manufactured. By the time AMD and NVidia have access to 5nm Apple will be about to move to 3nm. They are going to have a full node of delay for the foreseeable future. You can't just raise cash magically. I assure you AMD and NVidia were and are doing everything they can to raise as much money as possible and were trying as hard as they could to get capacity. They just couldn't outbid Apple. There is nothing that can be done for them to outbid Apple. They could have a 50% performance advantage and they still will never outbid Apple, because the majority of Apple processors aren't even being sold on performance. Yes there is lots of money to be made. The issue is that selling processors is very competitive. There will never be enough profit to be made for them to outfinance Apple unless iPhone sales nosedive.
    - cormacrelf 5y ago
      Right, so 5-10 years ago, seeing the writing on the wall, one of these companies should have bought/merged with another to pool more resources so as to remain a big enough bidder in the face of an entrant who would soon be massive. If the goal is to get a 5nm chip out the door today, maybe it seems hopeless, but if the goal is to compete with Apple, there are so, so many things to be done. It's a fair fight, they're just losing. I don't really have anything more to contribute, but this has been a good talk.
      - 5y ago

sudosysgen 5y ago

But the chips are not sub-par. The entire point of my argument is that at an equal lithography the competition can outperform Apple. The performance advantage that Apple can demonstrate is under the margin of improvement from 7nm to 5nm all else being equal (RAM, TDP, etc..) There was already a fire under their butt before Apple. Both AMD, Intel, NVidia and even Qualcomm are competing against each other. And that competition yielded architectures that are at least on par and very probably better than what Apple can do. They can design better chips. They just don't have as much money as Apple. It's something that Apple already did before with, for example, the first generation of small HDDs, they bought out the entire production line and their competitors, despite being able to make MP3s that were just as good, had to wait for years to access the parts.

cormacrelf 5y ago
I wouldn't be too worried. If they are competitive designs, they will be able to get money to have them manufactured. There is lots of money to be made doing it, so there is lots of capital available. I don't think this will result in a huge setback to humanity's progress like you are making out. But for now, you can't fault Apple at all for planning for this better than they did, but you can fault these companies for not raising tons of cash in anticipation this would be an issue. Darwinian capitalism applies to supply chain strategists too.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The designs are competitive, and they can't get the money to have them manufactured. By the time AMD and NVidia have access to 5nm Apple will be about to move to 3nm. They are going to have a full node of delay for the foreseeable future. You can't just raise cash magically. I assure you AMD and NVidia were and are doing everything they can to raise as much money as possible and were trying as hard as they could to get capacity. They just couldn't outbid Apple. There is nothing that can be done for them to outbid Apple. They could have a 50% performance advantage and they still will never outbid Apple, because the majority of Apple processors aren't even being sold on performance. Yes there is lots of money to be made. The issue is that selling processors is very competitive. There will never be enough profit to be made for them to outfinance Apple unless iPhone sales nosedive.
  - cormacrelf 5y ago
    Right, so 5-10 years ago, seeing the writing on the wall, one of these companies should have bought/merged with another to pool more resources so as to remain a big enough bidder in the face of an entrant who would soon be massive. If the goal is to get a 5nm chip out the door today, maybe it seems hopeless, but if the goal is to compete with Apple, there are so, so many things to be done. It's a fair fight, they're just losing. I don't really have anything more to contribute, but this has been a good talk.
    - 5y ago