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Once you accept that the future is unknown, you'll see that every asset is a speculative asset, no? For the longest time, real estate was assumed to be 100% sa
by rawtxapp 5y ago
Once you accept that the future is unknown, you'll see that every asset is a speculative asset, no?
For the longest time, real estate was assumed to be 100% safe until 2008, etc.
- faeyanpiraat 5y agoYes but real assets have a lower chance of their value completely evaporating in an instant. You can also use some of them, like live in a house asset.
- mym1990 5y agoJust because the future is uncertain doesn't mean you can't do research to make a reasonable forecast. Typically speculation is specifically buying/selling without any reasoning other than 'I think someone will pay higher for this in the future'. Many assets don't even have to appreciate. A car is an asset if I have paid it off. I don't expect someone to pay me more than I paid for it unless it is a collectible or I live in the year 2021. On your last sentence, I don't know who thought real estate was 100%, because nothing is 100% safe as a store of value, but I guess they paid for it in the end.
- rawtxapp 5y agoThen I can say that I've done my research and I think it's reasonable that USD won't remain global reserve currency forever and that it's replacement won't be a governmental currency, but a decentralized one and Bitcoin would be the only reasonable candidate. Does this mean that I'm not speculating all of a sudden because I've done research and came up with a reasonable forecast?
- MrMan 5y agoPeople won't invest in a reserve currency, they will use it for trade. Anything people are buying and holding is by definition not a reserve currency. You are describing "treasure".
- rawtxapp 5y agoI mean people buy USD through forex markets all the time, the same way that people buy Bitcoin through crypto exchanges. Also, it won't become reserve currency overnight, it's a gradual process and until it happens it acts as a store of value with a huge upside.
- mym1990 5y agoYes, I would say you are not speculating because speculating is simply buying/selling and hoping to profit. Whether or not your forecast is reasonable or even useful is not within my sphere of knowledge. I can also almost certainly say that the USD wont be the global reserve currency forever, but making decisions based on a forever timeline poses a wide range of risks.
- bildung 5y agoThe difference between investment and speculation is pretty established, isn't it? For example https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/difference-between-investing-speculating.asp https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/difference-betwe...