2 ms·

But still, it is worth noting that the peak US vaccinated death rates on those charts (e.g. ~1.47 / 100k for Pfizer) are higher than the current _unvaccinated_

by abeppu 5y ago

But still, it is worth noting that the peak US vaccinated death rates on those charts (e.g. ~1.47 / 100k for Pfizer) are higher than the current _unvaccinated_ death rate in Chile. Vaccination contribute an order of magnitude decrease in the death rate, but surges can contribute an order of magnitude difference as well, within a country over time or between countries. Vaccines matter a lot, but all the other public health tools to prevent/combat surges also still matter.

angelzen 5y ago
The numbers are small and the risk concentrated in the elderly ailing population such that an outbreak in nursing homes can skew the overall numbers one way or another, depending on lack of PCR tests or over-sensitive PCR tests. These numbers are mostly useful for detecting general trends, e.g. are the cases going up or down, what is the O(death risk)?. Strictly comparing different locales is not going to be very informative
- abeppu 5y ago
  I think your point is valid for e.g. not comparing municipalities. But comparing countries of tens of millions of people I think is not dominated by noise. But perhaps a more pointed comparison is the US peak death rate for J&J vaccine recipients was higher than the lowest unvaccinated death rate. That swing happened only from early June to early August. I.e. if you got the J&J shot in early June, you decreased risk by 15 micromorts/wk with that vaccination but in just two months, the surge increased your risk by like 28 micromort/wk. I don't think that's a statistical fluke; I think the situation really did get materially worse in the US over that period. That proceeded from choices we made as a society. This winter, our collective choices still have the potential to create impacts which will rival the efficacy of the vaccines.

2 ms·

But still, it is worth noting that the peak US vaccinated death rates on those charts (e.g. ~1.47 / 100k for Pfizer) are higher than the current _unvaccinated_

by abeppu 5y ago

angelzen 5y ago
The numbers are small and the risk concentrated in the elderly ailing population such that an outbreak in nursing homes can skew the overall numbers one way or another, depending on lack of PCR tests or over-sensitive PCR tests. These numbers are mostly useful for detecting general trends, e.g. are the cases going up or down, what is the O(death risk)?. Strictly comparing different locales is not going to be very informative
- abeppu 5y ago
  I think your point is valid for e.g. not comparing municipalities. But comparing countries of tens of millions of people I think is not dominated by noise. But perhaps a more pointed comparison is the US peak death rate for J&J vaccine recipients was higher than the lowest unvaccinated death rate. That swing happened only from early June to early August. I.e. if you got the J&J shot in early June, you decreased risk by 15 micromorts/wk with that vaccination but in just two months, the surge increased your risk by like 28 micromort/wk. I don't think that's a statistical fluke; I think the situation really did get materially worse in the US over that period. That proceeded from choices we made as a society. This winter, our collective choices still have the potential to create impacts which will rival the efficacy of the vaccines.