> TL;DR: It's complicated. Economic modeling is complicated. The core fact that oil price shocks cause recessions is not. Your response is the reminiscent of a

> TL;DR: It's complicated. Economic modeling is complicated. The core fact that oil price shocks cause recessions is not. Your response is the reminiscent of a climate change denier saying "See! These two scientists disagree about how to model climate change, therefore it must not be real". > And I wouldn't call 80$ oil a "shock", especially in relation to current asset and commodity prices. Look at prices from 2011 to 2014 - was 100$ oil shocking then? Its not shocking as in "I'm shocked this is the price of oil". Its a price shock as in the price of a commodity rapidly changing. The absolute price doesn't matter as much as the percent change. There's no hard and fast rule about what constitutes a shock, but the price of crude oil has doubled since last November.