5 ms·

Hope there’s open refinery space somewhere to use this extra oil otherwise it’s noise. Thought the us was importing gasoline …

okl 5y ago
No need for hoping, we have data: - Refinery Utilization and Capacity: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm - Weekly Imports & Exports: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_a_EPP0_IM0_mbblpd_w.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_a_EPP0_IM0_mbblpd... Nothing against you in particular, but sometimes I wish people would just spend the 5 secs. to look up stuff instead of guessing...
- flightless 5y ago
  I love how resourceful you people are, every time I check out a HN thread I learn about more databases and references. Some of us are young and untrained in how these markets work. I think the original commenter wanted to contribute a counter-example because they're learning about this market. What would you suggest for learning more about the energy industry? Best references and anything to avoid?
  - dntrkv 5y ago
    Not oil-specific, but there are two podcasts I've been listening to that are really great. The Energy Transition Show and The Energy Gang. The former being a bit dry but very informative, the latter being more entertaining and maybe just as informative.
  - okl 5y ago
    Just dig around on the web. There is lots and lots of material, EIA and API are good sources for factual information and data. Just keep in mind that there are opinions and biases when it comes to energy/policies. To me it's always astonishing how gigantic this entire industry and the associated infrastructure is and how little average Joe knows and cares about it when he fills his car at the pump. The picture in this article captures it for me: https://www.portofgothenburg.com/news-room/press-releases/historic-moment-crude-oil-discharged-from-the-port-of-gothenburg/ https://www.portofgothenburg.com/news-room/press-releases/hi...
  - dredmorbius 5y ago
    After sports and politics, oil and energy are probably among the most data-rich areas of human activity. There's a global trade, it's critically important, the commodity, its trade, and data are quite fluid. The US EIA, EU's IEA, and various private data providers (BP's Annual Statistical Review being among the more notable) are all excellent sources. And of course the financial markets for current trading prices. For a wider viewpoint, there are numerous books and references. For a general history (through the early 1990s), Daniel Yergin's The Prize is simply staggering. He's very much an industry partisan and cheerleader, but the story he tells is worth hearing for anyone, and to me read as strongly cautionary. It's quite well researched and you'll find a wealth of other earlier references within it. For a more current general reading, Vaclav Smil cranks out a book or two a year, and has covered energy, energy transitions, and oil repeatedly since the early 1990 through the current year. Again, he does excellent research and will have numerous references worth exploring. The IPCC have extensive information on oil, coal, and gas activity, past and future, as well as explorations of alternative energy. There are a few reports which specifically look at the energy mix and considerations. These are voluminous, and the consortium's website is a bit of a disaster to navigate, but the information is absolutely first-rate. I can check later to find the specific reference I have in mind, ping back if you'd like a pointer. On the energy conservation / transition / renewables side, mileage varies. I'm a firm believer that we'll have to go that direction, but also caution that there's a lot of woo, bogosity, and outright scams around. The US national energy research labs, particularly the National Renewabale Energy Lab (NREL) in Colorado, do excellent (if occasionally politically-motivated) work. Rocky Mountain Institute has looked into alternative and low-carbon energy since the early 1980s, under Amory and Hunter Lovins. The Post-Carbon Institute is a less-technical, more political group based in Norther California, which publishes materials on peak oil and post-carbon issues. It and 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, are among the better decarbonisation groups I'm aware of. (There are many such, quality ... varies.) The Worldwatch Institute seem to have gone inactive but published a series of books on the State of the World, covering numerous issues. Many are available at the Internet Archive: https://archive.org/search.php?query=worldwatch+institute+state+of+the+world https://archive.org/search.php?query=worldwatch+institute+st... Definitely opinionated, cover much more than oil, but high-quality information. On who to look out for --- I'd take anything coming from the Libertarian/Free Market think tank network know as the Atlas Network with massive heapings of salt. That includes the Cato Institute, Heartland Institute, Heritage Foundation, Manhattan Institute, and many hundreds of other organisations around the world. Fortunately there's a handy list: https://www.atlasnetwork.org/partners https://www.atlasnetwork.org/partners If you'd like to know why, I recommend Naomi Oreskes and Eric Conway's Merchants of Doubt, which discusses the half-century-plus campaign of propaganda and disinformation these groups have carried out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt (As with much propaganda, there's often a kernel of truth, and frequently much more. The problem is that this is wrapped in a large helping of distraction and rhetoric whose principle aim is to persuade rather than inform.)
- ccamrobertson 5y ago
  This is great. The drop in capacity from March through August of this year is a bit concerning, but certainly not at historical lows (although I wonder if a tough labor market is precluding some of that capacity from coming online). Another issue to consider is that gasoline isn't a generic commodity across the United States. California always has the headliner numbers for the most expensive gas, namely because they require their own formulation which only local refineries produce (last I recall, maybe some out of state refineries produce it as well). California is the most egregious example, however there are other states with boutique gasoline requirements -- see https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Policy/Fuels-and-Renewables/2016-Oct-RFS/US-Fuel-Requirements/US-Gasoline-Requirements-Map.pdf https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Policy/Fuels-and-Renewable.... It adds another wrinkle to "increase oil > use excess refining capacity" narrative.
curiousllama 5y ago
Oil-based products all have prices intertwined. Eg if we produce more diesel, that price drops, refineries switch to other products (gasoline, kerosene, etc) and those prices drop too.
londons_explore 5y ago
Doesn't the oil reserve consist of lots of refined products too?
- okl 5y ago
  Nope, not really. Here is their inventory: https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html
servytor 5y ago
At one point I started worrying about oil, after watching some documentary about it, and my friend made two really good points in about 2014. 1). Peak oil will never happen, and in fact OPEC is scared of high oil prices, because it will automatically create an insane demand into research into synthesizing oil at an industrial scale instead of just being university research postings. 2). America has the best oil refineries of any other country; we might be dependent on oil but other nations are dependent on our export of gasoline. I have no clue if those statements are accurate, but his claims made sense to me.
- okl 5y ago
  Regarding 1): There already are such projects, notably used by Nazi-Germany during WWII: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction Coal prices are currently at insane levels compared to crude oil, however. Regarding 2): US has been a net importer of distillates since 2012.
  - xhrpost 5y ago
    2.) You mean net exporter? https://www.usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/documents/foreso_petroleum_products-12-1-14_final_0.pdf https://www.usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/documents/foreso... https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596
    - okl 5y ago
      Oh, yep, sorry. Held the chart upside down and looked at the sum of crude+products. Thanks for the correction.
- xhrpost 5y ago
  1) What I heard is that we will never "run out" of oil because there will always be oil that is more expensive to extract than the current market price. Thus, the price can always increase if there is sufficient demand and then that oil is profitable to extract.

okl 5y ago

No need for hoping, we have data: - Refinery Utilization and Capacity: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm - Weekly Imports & Exports: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_a_EPP0_IM0_mbblpd_w.htm https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_a_EPP0_IM0_mbblpd... Nothing against you in particular, but sometimes I wish people would just spend the 5 secs. to look up stuff instead of guessing...

flightless 5y ago
I love how resourceful you people are, every time I check out a HN thread I learn about more databases and references. Some of us are young and untrained in how these markets work. I think the original commenter wanted to contribute a counter-example because they're learning about this market. What would you suggest for learning more about the energy industry? Best references and anything to avoid?
- dntrkv 5y ago
  Not oil-specific, but there are two podcasts I've been listening to that are really great. The Energy Transition Show and The Energy Gang. The former being a bit dry but very informative, the latter being more entertaining and maybe just as informative.
- okl 5y ago
  Just dig around on the web. There is lots and lots of material, EIA and API are good sources for factual information and data. Just keep in mind that there are opinions and biases when it comes to energy/policies. To me it's always astonishing how gigantic this entire industry and the associated infrastructure is and how little average Joe knows and cares about it when he fills his car at the pump. The picture in this article captures it for me: https://www.portofgothenburg.com/news-room/press-releases/historic-moment-crude-oil-discharged-from-the-port-of-gothenburg/ https://www.portofgothenburg.com/news-room/press-releases/hi...
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  After sports and politics, oil and energy are probably among the most data-rich areas of human activity. There's a global trade, it's critically important, the commodity, its trade, and data are quite fluid. The US EIA, EU's IEA, and various private data providers (BP's Annual Statistical Review being among the more notable) are all excellent sources. And of course the financial markets for current trading prices. For a wider viewpoint, there are numerous books and references. For a general history (through the early 1990s), Daniel Yergin's The Prize is simply staggering. He's very much an industry partisan and cheerleader, but the story he tells is worth hearing for anyone, and to me read as strongly cautionary. It's quite well researched and you'll find a wealth of other earlier references within it. For a more current general reading, Vaclav Smil cranks out a book or two a year, and has covered energy, energy transitions, and oil repeatedly since the early 1990 through the current year. Again, he does excellent research and will have numerous references worth exploring. The IPCC have extensive information on oil, coal, and gas activity, past and future, as well as explorations of alternative energy. There are a few reports which specifically look at the energy mix and considerations. These are voluminous, and the consortium's website is a bit of a disaster to navigate, but the information is absolutely first-rate. I can check later to find the specific reference I have in mind, ping back if you'd like a pointer. On the energy conservation / transition / renewables side, mileage varies. I'm a firm believer that we'll have to go that direction, but also caution that there's a lot of woo, bogosity, and outright scams around. The US national energy research labs, particularly the National Renewabale Energy Lab (NREL) in Colorado, do excellent (if occasionally politically-motivated) work. Rocky Mountain Institute has looked into alternative and low-carbon energy since the early 1980s, under Amory and Hunter Lovins. The Post-Carbon Institute is a less-technical, more political group based in Norther California, which publishes materials on peak oil and post-carbon issues. It and 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, are among the better decarbonisation groups I'm aware of. (There are many such, quality ... varies.) The Worldwatch Institute seem to have gone inactive but published a series of books on the State of the World, covering numerous issues. Many are available at the Internet Archive: https://archive.org/search.php?query=worldwatch+institute+state+of+the+world https://archive.org/search.php?query=worldwatch+institute+st... Definitely opinionated, cover much more than oil, but high-quality information. On who to look out for --- I'd take anything coming from the Libertarian/Free Market think tank network know as the Atlas Network with massive heapings of salt. That includes the Cato Institute, Heartland Institute, Heritage Foundation, Manhattan Institute, and many hundreds of other organisations around the world. Fortunately there's a handy list: https://www.atlasnetwork.org/partners https://www.atlasnetwork.org/partners If you'd like to know why, I recommend Naomi Oreskes and Eric Conway's Merchants of Doubt, which discusses the half-century-plus campaign of propaganda and disinformation these groups have carried out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt (As with much propaganda, there's often a kernel of truth, and frequently much more. The problem is that this is wrapped in a large helping of distraction and rhetoric whose principle aim is to persuade rather than inform.)
ccamrobertson 5y ago
This is great. The drop in capacity from March through August of this year is a bit concerning, but certainly not at historical lows (although I wonder if a tough labor market is precluding some of that capacity from coming online). Another issue to consider is that gasoline isn't a generic commodity across the United States. California always has the headliner numbers for the most expensive gas, namely because they require their own formulation which only local refineries produce (last I recall, maybe some out of state refineries produce it as well). California is the most egregious example, however there are other states with boutique gasoline requirements -- see https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Policy/Fuels-and-Renewables/2016-Oct-RFS/US-Fuel-Requirements/US-Gasoline-Requirements-Map.pdf https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Policy/Fuels-and-Renewable.... It adds another wrinkle to "increase oil > use excess refining capacity" narrative.

curiousllama 5y ago

Oil-based products all have prices intertwined. Eg if we produce more diesel, that price drops, refineries switch to other products (gasoline, kerosene, etc) and those prices drop too.

londons_explore 5y ago

Doesn't the oil reserve consist of lots of refined products too?

okl 5y ago
Nope, not really. Here is their inventory: https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

servytor 5y ago

At one point I started worrying about oil, after watching some documentary about it, and my friend made two really good points in about 2014. 1). Peak oil will never happen, and in fact OPEC is scared of high oil prices, because it will automatically create an insane demand into research into synthesizing oil at an industrial scale instead of just being university research postings. 2). America has the best oil refineries of any other country; we might be dependent on oil but other nations are dependent on our export of gasoline. I have no clue if those statements are accurate, but his claims made sense to me.

okl 5y ago
Regarding 1): There already are such projects, notably used by Nazi-Germany during WWII: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction Coal prices are currently at insane levels compared to crude oil, however. Regarding 2): US has been a net importer of distillates since 2012.
- xhrpost 5y ago
  2.) You mean net exporter? https://www.usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/documents/foreso_petroleum_products-12-1-14_final_0.pdf https://www.usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/documents/foreso... https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596
  - okl 5y ago
    Oh, yep, sorry. Held the chart upside down and looked at the sum of crude+products. Thanks for the correction.
xhrpost 5y ago
1) What I heard is that we will never "run out" of oil because there will always be oil that is more expensive to extract than the current market price. Thus, the price can always increase if there is sufficient demand and then that oil is profitable to extract.