This relationship is pretty similar across different countries. Pick the current point, pick a point with a similar curve, you’ll see differences are at most 2-

This relationship is pretty similar across different countries. Pick the current point, pick a point with a similar curve, you’ll see differences are at most 2-3x better, often much less so. Much less of an improvement than the quote 20-fold protection against severe disease (95% efficacy) Those saying “live with it” argue for a removal of NPIs leading to even higher caseloads. If improvement per case is only 2-3x at most then if you go 2-3x past prior peaks the absolute problem is as bad. I checked the Uk and got 2-3x depending on metric (icu 2x better, hospital and death, 3x) Denmark is .5-2x better on these metrics from prior peak. Germany 3x better on deaths (checking prior case peak, December 21st 2020) Can you find a country which does not have this pattern, where they are actually 10-20x better for a given caseload? If not, I posit the pattern holds and that this method has some use in predicting future results at a given caseload in a country at European average levels of vaccination, without boosters.