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I don't follow at all closely, but my impression of SpaceX's track record vs. Musk promises is that they're usually late but usually get there in the end, in fu
by abecedarius 5y ago
I don't follow at all closely, but my impression of SpaceX's track record vs. Musk promises is that they're usually late but usually get there in the end, in functional terms if not in exact approach. Is that wrong?
- rich_sasha 5y agoMy take is, they tackle problems whose difficulty is increasing exponentially. Making a rocket that flies, from scratch, is X% harder than building one that already exist. Making it land again, X%. Reusing it, X%. I'm also skipping intermediate points here - like about the engines have a particular closed-loop design that is more fuel efficient. Starship seems to, again, require a few of these X% improvements. And the thing about exponential growth, as Covid kindly reminded us, is that eventually it is overwhelming. So I don't think you can simply extrapolate from "they have a good track record of solving hard problems", because the problems they tackle are getting harder and harder.
- abecedarius 5y agoYeah, that's a reasonable doubt, I'd say. Just not a strong one on its own.
- rich_sasha 5y agoWell, extrapolation is always poorly justified in the first place. Extrapolation where problems get exponentially harder is just speculation IMO. I wish them well, but I'm tired of all these blogs writing about Starship as if it's a done thing, to the point of writing about delivery costs. It might happen, it might not.