While I think some of hyperbole around climate change risks confusing people about exactly how bad the situation could be, the differences between 1.5 and 2 deg

While I think some of hyperbole around climate change risks confusing people about exactly how bad the situation could be, the differences between 1.5 and 2 degrees are not trivial, and even 1.5 degrees is considerably worse than what we have now. >The good news is that if countries uphold their commitments from the past several years to sharply cut emissions, the world will be in position to limit warming closer to 2°C, the long-standing international target for climate stabilisation. The qualifiers here are doing a lot of work. If countries uphold their commitments, they will be in a position to limit warning closer to 2°C. Nordhouse dismisses Thunberg's comments as "adolescent cynicism," but there's a real gap between commitments and action. The Biden administration's Build Back Better bill with the CEPP provisions included would put the U.S. on a track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, according to one analysis [0]. That target is more reachable than I think a lot of people pessimistic about climate change action, myself included, thought. However, the full bill is unlikely to pass. The recently signed bipartisan infrastructure bill will make only a small dent—the US would need BBB or legislature with similar climate ambitions to actually be on the right track. Nordhouse's link [1] shows that if nations keep their commitments by 2030, it will be 2.4, which is much better than 3 degrees, but significantly higher than 2. Optimistically, warming could be kept to 1.9 degrees if long-term commitments are all kept. So it's fair to point out that there's still time, but I don't think dismissing critics like Thunberg is fair. Without holding nations to their commitments like she's doing, it's much more likely we won't do any better than the current 3 degree projection. [0]: https://repeatproject.org/docs/REPEAT_Preliminary_Report_102021.pdf https://repeatproject.org/docs/REPEAT_Preliminary_Report_102... [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-do-cop26-promises-keep-global-warming-below-2c https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-do-cop26-promises-keep-...