5 ms·

Might be better to link directly to the paper (which this press release does not bother to do): https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/ee/d0ee02681f

Might be better to link directly to the paper (which this press release does not bother to do): https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/ee/d0ee02681f https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/ee/d0ee0268... Here is their better chart: https://pubs.rsc.org/image/article/2021/EE/d0ee02681f/d0ee02681f-f1_hi-res.gif https://pubs.rsc.org/image/article/2021/EE/d0ee02681f/d0ee02... Looks to me like price decreases are substantially slowing on a log scale.

spfzero 5y ago
Thank you for this. Reading the OP article, I kept wondering when they would get to the numbers. Then it ended.
kurthr 5y ago
Yes, their forecasts for $75 & $20/kWh (e.g. 2027) seem highly optimistic. The rate of decrease for small cells have declined precipitously. Based on the last 10 years of improvement, I'd expect something like $100/kWh in 2030. However, this doesn't include LiFePO where a lot of manufacturing focus has turned in the last few years. Car maker and fixed battery install are driving demand and lower costs. Looking at $100/kWh next year. and $50 in 2030. https://climatebiz.com/lifepo4-battery/ https://climatebiz.com/lifepo4-battery/
consumer451 5y ago
> Looks to me like price decreases are substantially slowing on a log scale. Based on my rudimentary understanding of the industry, I wonder how large an impact the expiration of the patents on LiFePo (LFP) cells [1] will have on continuing the drop the in price. I believe that the fundamental resources involved in LFP production are much lower cost. Other characteristics make LFP seem to be superior for stationary storage which is projected to be larger than mobility. I hope that the superior economics of LFP, from the POV of production, will help the industry scale at the insane rate that is required. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery
- consumer451 5y ago
  Here is a different page with deep link to the patent details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate#Intellectual_property https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate#Intelle...
- elihu 5y ago
  I hope so. I think about 95% of LFP cells are made in China right now. Good for them (at least on this one issue), but I think we really need more supply diversity, and maybe more non-China companies will start pumping out LFP cells with less licensing issues. It doesn't make much sense for one country to have a monopoly on this one thing that's likely going to be critical to transportation, energy infrastructure, and the world economy in general in the near-term (at least until something better/cheaper than LFP comes along).
  - consumer451 5y ago
    > I think about 95% of LFP cells are made in China right now. This is due to the patent licensing being ignored by the rights holders, but only for products sold in China. That was the deal they made. That licensing advantage gave Chinese manufacturers a 10 year head start on LFP at scale. Honestly, it seems like if US hawks had their minds on the future then this would have been a major national security priority - like oil has been for the last century.
    - dTal 5y ago
      It's clear that "national security" was always a euphemism for "the financial interests of certain rich capitalists who not coincidentally spend considerable sums on political lobbying".
HPsquared 5y ago
Looks like about 0.5 decades (factors of 10) per decade.
ncmncm 5y ago
Still exponential, though, just with a smaller exponent.

spfzero 5y ago

Thank you for this. Reading the OP article, I kept wondering when they would get to the numbers. Then it ended.

kurthr 5y ago

Yes, their forecasts for $75 & $20/kWh (e.g. 2027) seem highly optimistic. The rate of decrease for small cells have declined precipitously. Based on the last 10 years of improvement, I'd expect something like $100/kWh in 2030. However, this doesn't include LiFePO where a lot of manufacturing focus has turned in the last few years. Car maker and fixed battery install are driving demand and lower costs. Looking at $100/kWh next year. and $50 in 2030. https://climatebiz.com/lifepo4-battery/ https://climatebiz.com/lifepo4-battery/

consumer451 5y ago

> Looks to me like price decreases are substantially slowing on a log scale. Based on my rudimentary understanding of the industry, I wonder how large an impact the expiration of the patents on LiFePo (LFP) cells [1] will have on continuing the drop the in price. I believe that the fundamental resources involved in LFP production are much lower cost. Other characteristics make LFP seem to be superior for stationary storage which is projected to be larger than mobility. I hope that the superior economics of LFP, from the POV of production, will help the industry scale at the insane rate that is required. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery

consumer451 5y ago
Here is a different page with deep link to the patent details: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate#Intellectual_property https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate#Intelle...
elihu 5y ago
I hope so. I think about 95% of LFP cells are made in China right now. Good for them (at least on this one issue), but I think we really need more supply diversity, and maybe more non-China companies will start pumping out LFP cells with less licensing issues. It doesn't make much sense for one country to have a monopoly on this one thing that's likely going to be critical to transportation, energy infrastructure, and the world economy in general in the near-term (at least until something better/cheaper than LFP comes along).
- consumer451 5y ago
  > I think about 95% of LFP cells are made in China right now. This is due to the patent licensing being ignored by the rights holders, but only for products sold in China. That was the deal they made. That licensing advantage gave Chinese manufacturers a 10 year head start on LFP at scale. Honestly, it seems like if US hawks had their minds on the future then this would have been a major national security priority - like oil has been for the last century.
  - dTal 5y ago
    It's clear that "national security" was always a euphemism for "the financial interests of certain rich capitalists who not coincidentally spend considerable sums on political lobbying".

HPsquared 5y ago

Looks like about 0.5 decades (factors of 10) per decade.

ncmncm 5y ago

Still exponential, though, just with a smaller exponent.