3 ms·

After more than 1 bn doses administered you shouldn't make such a claim without a reference. The myocarditis risk in young males seems to be manageable.

by oezi 5y ago

logicchains 5y ago
Here's a reference wrt cardiac damage, from the highest-impact cardiology journal: https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107...
- Pyramus 5y ago
  The author is a known quack, please stop spreading misinformation. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29298178 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29298178
- oezi 5y ago
  Thanks for this. Unfortunately it is only an abstract and thus is a little short on the details (for instance if they excluded people with Covid infections from their cohort). Also it is difficult to assess if a rise in inflammatory markers would still be considered normal for instance when comparing to other vaccines or not. Compare for instance similar publication of influence vaccine https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15976761/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15976761/
Amezarak 5y ago
I think that's what underlies a lot of this disagreement. Risk, and what risk is manageable, and who gets to shoulder it. These allegedly affected athletes (if that's what really caused their issue), probably have a very different feeling and assessment about the manageability of their myocarditis vs covid risk, and they by-and-large didn't get to choose - the decision was made for them, in part because the risk of Covid in > 80s is 1000x+ higher. There wasn't any sort of democratic discussion and consensus about what risks we were willing to accept in either Covid or in possible vaccine effects, people were just told by the authorities what they were going to accept. So people with different risk profiles and people with different amounts of risk-willingness are are major levels of disagreement, even if they don't always frame it in those terms. EDIT: Brief correction that the risk I was thinking of is in 85+ year olds, and it's only 570x the risk of 18-29 year olds, not more than 1000x. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...
- jcims 5y ago
  This is one of those things i want to talk about any every time this subject comes up but i just don’t have the energy to sustain it because the arguments always turn into spreadsheet politics. So i 100% agree with you and i think exploring this aspect of the conversation is an essential part of healing it.
- oezi 5y ago
  You are certainly right that risk assessment is hard, but with manageable I primarily meant that the myocarditis which was detected was primarily mild in the young age group(at least in Germany where I followed the reports) and didn't lead to any deaths or severe impairments. The risk for myocarditis from Comirnaty for 12-17 aged men is given at 4.8 in 100.000 vaccinations. Of those the larger than expected analysis showed that 10 out of the 78 total cases would have been expected without vaccination.
OrvalWintermute 5y ago
please define manageable in the context of a life altering injury where the vaccine NNT numbers favor no vaccination in a young, healthy demographic?
- oezi 5y ago
  Manageable means that it can be treated and in most cases is not a life altering inflammation. And I don't know where you take your numbers, but the numbers to me seem to clearly favor getting a vaccine rather than risking myocarditis from Covid: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm
  - OrvalWintermute 5y ago
    I think you are failing to account for the incredibly low infection rate of the young and healthy with no comorbidities. The pericarditis rates from vaccine and infection are fairly comparable, ranging from 200 per million to high 700s per million. However, given low infection rates of those young/healthy, the equation is fundamentally changed. Please account for that before you provide half-baked advice.

After more than 1 bn doses administered you shouldn't make such a claim without a reference. The myocarditis risk in young males seems to be manageable.

by oezi 5y ago

After more than 1 bn doses administered you shouldn't make such a claim without a reference. The myocarditis risk in young males seems to be manageable.

logicchains 5y ago

Here's a reference wrt cardiac damage, from the highest-impact cardiology journal: https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107...

Pyramus 5y ago
The author is a known quack, please stop spreading misinformation. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29298178 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29298178
oezi 5y ago
Thanks for this. Unfortunately it is only an abstract and thus is a little short on the details (for instance if they excluded people with Covid infections from their cohort). Also it is difficult to assess if a rise in inflammatory markers would still be considered normal for instance when comparing to other vaccines or not. Compare for instance similar publication of influence vaccine https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15976761/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15976761/

Amezarak 5y ago

I think that's what underlies a lot of this disagreement. Risk, and what risk is manageable, and who gets to shoulder it. These allegedly affected athletes (if that's what really caused their issue), probably have a very different feeling and assessment about the manageability of their myocarditis vs covid risk, and they by-and-large didn't get to choose - the decision was made for them, in part because the risk of Covid in > 80s is 1000x+ higher. There wasn't any sort of democratic discussion and consensus about what risks we were willing to accept in either Covid or in possible vaccine effects, people were just told by the authorities what they were going to accept. So people with different risk profiles and people with different amounts of risk-willingness are are major levels of disagreement, even if they don't always frame it in those terms. EDIT: Brief correction that the risk I was thinking of is in 85+ year olds, and it's only 570x the risk of 18-29 year olds, not more than 1000x. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...

jcims 5y ago
This is one of those things i want to talk about any every time this subject comes up but i just don’t have the energy to sustain it because the arguments always turn into spreadsheet politics. So i 100% agree with you and i think exploring this aspect of the conversation is an essential part of healing it.
oezi 5y ago
You are certainly right that risk assessment is hard, but with manageable I primarily meant that the myocarditis which was detected was primarily mild in the young age group(at least in Germany where I followed the reports) and didn't lead to any deaths or severe impairments. The risk for myocarditis from Comirnaty for 12-17 aged men is given at 4.8 in 100.000 vaccinations. Of those the larger than expected analysis showed that 10 out of the 78 total cases would have been expected without vaccination.

OrvalWintermute 5y ago

please define manageable in the context of a life altering injury where the vaccine NNT numbers favor no vaccination in a young, healthy demographic?

oezi 5y ago
Manageable means that it can be treated and in most cases is not a life altering inflammation. And I don't know where you take your numbers, but the numbers to me seem to clearly favor getting a vaccine rather than risking myocarditis from Covid: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm
- OrvalWintermute 5y ago
  I think you are failing to account for the incredibly low infection rate of the young and healthy with no comorbidities. The pericarditis rates from vaccine and infection are fairly comparable, ranging from 200 per million to high 700s per million. However, given low infection rates of those young/healthy, the equation is fundamentally changed. Please account for that before you provide half-baked advice.