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Not today. I guess I should have been more clear I'm speaking about the Western World. In 50 years, consumption of animal meat will be like caviar+cigarettes+

Not today. I guess I should have been more clear I'm speaking about the Western World. In 50 years, consumption of animal meat will be like caviar+cigarettes+segregated bathrooms are today in the Western World. The rest of the world? Too many variables, depends a lot on climate change.

otabdeveloper4 5y ago
There won't be a "Western World" in 50 years.
rsj_hn 5y ago
I think it's a lot more likely that in 50 years, per capita animal consumption will be higher than today, simply because the subgroups that tend to favor vegetarianism are shrinking as a share of the overall global population (and tend not to have as many children), whereas global income is increasing. Certainly global meat consumption has been on the rise, going from 150 Billion kilograms in 1990, to more than 350 billion kilograms today (https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/26/1023636/sustainable-meat-livestock-production-climate-change/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/26/1023636/sustaina...) In terms of per-capita consumption, it has increased by 20kg per person since 1960. (source: https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) There is no reason to expect this trend to reverse. I do think that in North America, per capita meat consumption will decline a bit since in the U.S. we really eat too much of everything and there will be more pressure to switch to more humane meat production that is more expensive per kilogram. I think this is a positive development, but humanely raised beef is not that much more expensive - maybe 20% more expensive, so not at all "caviar". Pro-tip: Check out butcherbox and other services for free range beef, chicken, and pork. Lots of services like this are springing up. OTOH, world population will level out soon, and may even start shrinking, so total meat consumption in 50 years may be lower than today. Per-capita consumption will be higher. I don't see vegetarians increasing as a share of global population, the majority of the world loves to eat meat and will continue to do so. In terms of climate change, this promotes more beef consumption because beef is the best way to turn a large portion of the earth's dry arable land into food production (at least unless humans evolve to eat grass and shrub). A large part of the planet simply doesn't have the fresh water supply to support growth of food crops, and this is where cattle graze. If you believe the earth is going to get drier, then this means the global diet will shift even more towards beef consumption as farms that used to grow corn exhaust water tables and revert back to pasture. This will continue to be the case as the earth warms, and such warming will advantage beef over other forms of food production more dependent on wet areas with steady rains.
- cheese_goddess 5y ago
  It's interesting to note that despite the best efforts of the animal rights movement and the increased numbers of people choosing vegetarian or vegan options in recent years (so it seems, I've read many articles that say so) meat production and consumption has continued to increase steadily over the years: https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-meat-consumption-per-person https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-meat-consumption-pe...
  - boston_clone 5y ago
    Looks like the US is trending down in consumption for the last ~7 or so years of available data plotted; nice! It'd be interesting to see data from beyond 2013 included in that chart, though. Thanks for sharing!

otabdeveloper4 5y ago

There won't be a "Western World" in 50 years.

rsj_hn 5y ago

I think it's a lot more likely that in 50 years, per capita animal consumption will be higher than today, simply because the subgroups that tend to favor vegetarianism are shrinking as a share of the overall global population (and tend not to have as many children), whereas global income is increasing. Certainly global meat consumption has been on the rise, going from 150 Billion kilograms in 1990, to more than 350 billion kilograms today (https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/26/1023636/sustainable-meat-livestock-production-climate-change/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/26/1023636/sustaina...) In terms of per-capita consumption, it has increased by 20kg per person since 1960. (source: https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) There is no reason to expect this trend to reverse. I do think that in North America, per capita meat consumption will decline a bit since in the U.S. we really eat too much of everything and there will be more pressure to switch to more humane meat production that is more expensive per kilogram. I think this is a positive development, but humanely raised beef is not that much more expensive - maybe 20% more expensive, so not at all "caviar". Pro-tip: Check out butcherbox and other services for free range beef, chicken, and pork. Lots of services like this are springing up. OTOH, world population will level out soon, and may even start shrinking, so total meat consumption in 50 years may be lower than today. Per-capita consumption will be higher. I don't see vegetarians increasing as a share of global population, the majority of the world loves to eat meat and will continue to do so. In terms of climate change, this promotes more beef consumption because beef is the best way to turn a large portion of the earth's dry arable land into food production (at least unless humans evolve to eat grass and shrub). A large part of the planet simply doesn't have the fresh water supply to support growth of food crops, and this is where cattle graze. If you believe the earth is going to get drier, then this means the global diet will shift even more towards beef consumption as farms that used to grow corn exhaust water tables and revert back to pasture. This will continue to be the case as the earth warms, and such warming will advantage beef over other forms of food production more dependent on wet areas with steady rains.

cheese_goddess 5y ago
It's interesting to note that despite the best efforts of the animal rights movement and the increased numbers of people choosing vegetarian or vegan options in recent years (so it seems, I've read many articles that say so) meat production and consumption has continued to increase steadily over the years: https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-meat-consumption-per-person https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-meat-consumption-pe...
- boston_clone 5y ago
  Looks like the US is trending down in consumption for the last ~7 or so years of available data plotted; nice! It'd be interesting to see data from beyond 2013 included in that chart, though. Thanks for sharing!