4 ms·

I really want to understand what the reasoning behind this "test" was. From all I can research, it appears to be a cartoon-esque level of recklessness by the Ru

by a1371 5y ago

I really want to understand what the reasoning behind this "test" was. From all I can research, it appears to be a cartoon-esque level of recklessness by the Russians. The test itself seems to prove very little beyond what Russia could already do. They also haven't bothered to find a lower orbit to contaminate. Can someone provide more sensible reasons of why this was necessary?

neuronic 5y ago
Maybe they just want to put attention somewhere where it doesn't bother them?
kevin_thibedeau 5y ago
Constructing a excuse to back out of ISS while saving face.
orbital-decay 5y ago
Kinetic kill is exactly what "Russians" (the military, the country isn't a monolithic entity) couldn't do before. The Soviet Kontakt system never passed the final live test because the Union had crashed. Anyone who paid any attention knew that Nudol was in slow development for a decade, had been fired blank many times and had to be tested on a live target someday, for the contractor to complete the job. How can you trust a weapon that's never been properly tested? Good candidates in lower orbits were all short-lived and reentered long ago, and possibly weren't sufficient to test the claimed performance, to start with. What even makes you think they "haven't bothered"? I have no idea why they didn't launch a dedicated target though - might have been budgetary reasons, bureaucratic failure, or because of a specific test envelope. Alternatively, the military rarely care when it involves strategic matters, you can complain but it just works this way. In particular US military who blew up the Solwind observatory at 550km to test the ASM-135, the only US ASAT weapon currently in operation. It was in 1985, the same time when USSR was developing its counterpart, so it's easy to posture as morally superior when you already did the damage and there's currently no need for another ASAT weapon. Edit: here's a better analysis than most: https://spacenews.com/op-ed-lessons-to-learn-from-russias-nudol-asat-test/ https://spacenews.com/op-ed-lessons-to-learn-from-russias-nu... (meta: threads like this usually have little substance and garbage quality for HN standards. People start assuming all kinds of things and post kneejerk reactions without even bothering to research what's publicly available. I typically avoid posting in these, but then they just become outrage bubbles)
Lifelarper 5y ago
> sensible reasons of why The last few weeks have had some extreme rhetoric coming out of the US, claiming that Europe is about to be invaded by Russia, so extreme that even Euro allies find it a stretch. Maybe this doesn't make the news for many Americans but in Europe it certainly doesnt go unnoticed when powerful governments talk about full scale war on your doorstep. Now there's one country on Earth with a magnitude more spy sats than anyone else, let's call them X they are making these claims against country Y, in response Y demonstrates its ASAT capabilities for the world to see. Is it really that hard to understand? https://time.com/6116867/us-warns-russia-invade-ukraine/ https://time.com/6116867/us-warns-russia-invade-ukraine/ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/amid-tensions-with-russia-white-house-scrutinizes-military-exercises-in-europe/ar-AAQUF2S https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/amid-tensions-with-russ... https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-ukraine/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-uk...
- iSnow 5y ago
  Country X isn't just crying wolf to smear Y here. Y invaded a neighbouring country years ago and is again concentrating troops at the border. And it still doesn't answer why the Russians chose to destroy a huge sat (more fragments) built by the USSR (more material to fragment) at a relatively high orbit (more time for fragments to destroy other sats). They could have done the thing India did and ram a small-ish sat at a low orbit and the fragments would be gone within a couple of months. Instead they chose to even endanger their own cosmonauts on the ISS.
- Abishek_Muthian 5y ago
  Would it be far-fetched to imagine that Y is doing this to make a particular orbital trajectory useless for the future placement of a highly sophisticated spy satellite or spy plane from X?
nikanj 5y ago
Demonstrating that your country is a mean badass meanie who doesn’t give a f*ck about rules?

by a1371 5y ago

neuronic 5y ago

Maybe they just want to put attention somewhere where it doesn't bother them?

kevin_thibedeau 5y ago

Constructing a excuse to back out of ISS while saving face.

orbital-decay 5y ago

Kinetic kill is exactly what "Russians" (the military, the country isn't a monolithic entity) couldn't do before. The Soviet Kontakt system never passed the final live test because the Union had crashed. Anyone who paid any attention knew that Nudol was in slow development for a decade, had been fired blank many times and had to be tested on a live target someday, for the contractor to complete the job. How can you trust a weapon that's never been properly tested? Good candidates in lower orbits were all short-lived and reentered long ago, and possibly weren't sufficient to test the claimed performance, to start with. What even makes you think they "haven't bothered"? I have no idea why they didn't launch a dedicated target though - might have been budgetary reasons, bureaucratic failure, or because of a specific test envelope. Alternatively, the military rarely care when it involves strategic matters, you can complain but it just works this way. In particular US military who blew up the Solwind observatory at 550km to test the ASM-135, the only US ASAT weapon currently in operation. It was in 1985, the same time when USSR was developing its counterpart, so it's easy to posture as morally superior when you already did the damage and there's currently no need for another ASAT weapon. Edit: here's a better analysis than most: https://spacenews.com/op-ed-lessons-to-learn-from-russias-nudol-asat-test/ https://spacenews.com/op-ed-lessons-to-learn-from-russias-nu... (meta: threads like this usually have little substance and garbage quality for HN standards. People start assuming all kinds of things and post kneejerk reactions without even bothering to research what's publicly available. I typically avoid posting in these, but then they just become outrage bubbles)

Lifelarper 5y ago

> sensible reasons of why The last few weeks have had some extreme rhetoric coming out of the US, claiming that Europe is about to be invaded by Russia, so extreme that even Euro allies find it a stretch. Maybe this doesn't make the news for many Americans but in Europe it certainly doesnt go unnoticed when powerful governments talk about full scale war on your doorstep. Now there's one country on Earth with a magnitude more spy sats than anyone else, let's call them X they are making these claims against country Y, in response Y demonstrates its ASAT capabilities for the world to see. Is it really that hard to understand? https://time.com/6116867/us-warns-russia-invade-ukraine/ https://time.com/6116867/us-warns-russia-invade-ukraine/ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/amid-tensions-with-russia-white-house-scrutinizes-military-exercises-in-europe/ar-AAQUF2S https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/amid-tensions-with-russ... https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-ukraine/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-uk...

iSnow 5y ago
Country X isn't just crying wolf to smear Y here. Y invaded a neighbouring country years ago and is again concentrating troops at the border. And it still doesn't answer why the Russians chose to destroy a huge sat (more fragments) built by the USSR (more material to fragment) at a relatively high orbit (more time for fragments to destroy other sats). They could have done the thing India did and ram a small-ish sat at a low orbit and the fragments would be gone within a couple of months. Instead they chose to even endanger their own cosmonauts on the ISS.
Abishek_Muthian 5y ago
Would it be far-fetched to imagine that Y is doing this to make a particular orbital trajectory useless for the future placement of a highly sophisticated spy satellite or spy plane from X?

nikanj 5y ago

Demonstrating that your country is a mean badass meanie who doesn’t give a f*ck about rules?