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> The problem is we're all now dependent on stock market performance to make retirement feasible. Which seems a bit convenient for the wealthy. I think it was

> The problem is we're all now dependent on stock market performance to make retirement feasible. Which seems a bit convenient for the wealthy. I think it was intentional, to align the interests of pensioners with the wealthy. It seems to me that pensions are one thing governments can do a good job at, because companies may fail but the government is much less likely to be unable to pay retirement benefits. They may need to renegotiate the benefits but they won’t go to zero. And if companies fail the government provides a pension of last resort anyway. Either way, we have set up a system where those with assets are slightly in the majority (65% home ownership, probably similar number with 401ks or stocks [1] 56%) and so will continue to vote themselves benefits at the expense of those who haven’t already acquired assets. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-own...

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
>It seems to me that pensions are one thing governments can do a good job at, because companies may fail but the government is much less likely to be unable to pay retirement benefits. Illinois and New Jersey beg to differ. Granted checks haven't bounced yet but it's pretty clear weird stuff is gonna happen and either pensioners or taxpayers will get screwed bad.
barry-cotter 5y ago
People who can retire are wealthy. They have a claim on [10, 20, 30] years of an income stream in the future. This can either be a claim on future tax revenues (public pensions) or on return to capital previously invested (private pensions). Most people have always worked til they died and it seems unlikely that the system where people work for 30-40 years and then get 30-40 years of pension will last.
- jjoonathan 5y ago
  95% of people used to work in agriculture, now 5% do. This scarcity is our own creation.
  - LoveMortuus 5y ago
    I don't think it's scarcity, I think it's just reallocation of workforce, due to technological advancements. Those 5% can now produce equivalent or more to what the 95% used to produce. And because of that, people are able to focus on other work.
jjoonathan 5y ago
Right. Strategy 1 was "offer retirement plans and default on them," strategy 2 is "let them buy assets, dilute them with printed money." I also agree that when the middle class erodes to the point that asset ownership falls below 50% is when things get, uhh, interesting.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  A lot of people think this - but most of Europe has been like this for a while. Why will it be so interesting when it happens in the US?
  - Ericson2314 5y ago
    Yeah middle class homeownership is bullshit. Middle class stock ownership is less obviously good or bad, because the 0-sum nature of land is not present. When one gets right down to it, ownership is a too strong stuff. Total Control for eternity which is then sold in finite time in practice? Woah there, why so many infinities? "Rent" has a bad rep, but the problems of rent have to do with it being backstopped by ownship --- i.e. private landlords. "Rent all the way down" is good and conceptually simpler as their are no crazy cancelling out infinitis or whatnot. It's a system of flows that more accurate tracks how the "real economy" works. Of course, it is important there is still leverage, futures markets, etc. etc. of various sorts to push along history, but full ownership is too much a sledgehammer.
    - novok 5y ago
      There really isn't such thing as ownership. Stop paying your property tax and see what happens.
      - Ericson2314 5y ago
        Certainly, but we dole out an awful lot of privileges in return for that measly obligation! Prop 13 merely puts the silliness in sharper relief.
      - 5y ago

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

>It seems to me that pensions are one thing governments can do a good job at, because companies may fail but the government is much less likely to be unable to pay retirement benefits. Illinois and New Jersey beg to differ. Granted checks haven't bounced yet but it's pretty clear weird stuff is gonna happen and either pensioners or taxpayers will get screwed bad.

barry-cotter 5y ago

People who can retire are wealthy. They have a claim on [10, 20, 30] years of an income stream in the future. This can either be a claim on future tax revenues (public pensions) or on return to capital previously invested (private pensions). Most people have always worked til they died and it seems unlikely that the system where people work for 30-40 years and then get 30-40 years of pension will last.

jjoonathan 5y ago
95% of people used to work in agriculture, now 5% do. This scarcity is our own creation.
- LoveMortuus 5y ago
  I don't think it's scarcity, I think it's just reallocation of workforce, due to technological advancements. Those 5% can now produce equivalent or more to what the 95% used to produce. And because of that, people are able to focus on other work.

jjoonathan 5y ago

Right. Strategy 1 was "offer retirement plans and default on them," strategy 2 is "let them buy assets, dilute them with printed money." I also agree that when the middle class erodes to the point that asset ownership falls below 50% is when things get, uhh, interesting.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
A lot of people think this - but most of Europe has been like this for a while. Why will it be so interesting when it happens in the US?
- Ericson2314 5y ago
  Yeah middle class homeownership is bullshit. Middle class stock ownership is less obviously good or bad, because the 0-sum nature of land is not present. When one gets right down to it, ownership is a too strong stuff. Total Control for eternity which is then sold in finite time in practice? Woah there, why so many infinities? "Rent" has a bad rep, but the problems of rent have to do with it being backstopped by ownship --- i.e. private landlords. "Rent all the way down" is good and conceptually simpler as their are no crazy cancelling out infinitis or whatnot. It's a system of flows that more accurate tracks how the "real economy" works. Of course, it is important there is still leverage, futures markets, etc. etc. of various sorts to push along history, but full ownership is too much a sledgehammer.
  - novok 5y ago
    There really isn't such thing as ownership. Stop paying your property tax and see what happens.
    - Ericson2314 5y ago
      Certainly, but we dole out an awful lot of privileges in return for that measly obligation! Prop 13 merely puts the silliness in sharper relief.
    - 5y ago