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I follow ZeroHedge, but this statistic isn't very helpful without knowing the number of false positives or incorrect timing.
by dwiel 5y ago
I follow ZeroHedge, but this statistic isn't very helpful without knowing the number of false positives or incorrect timing.
- jameshart 5y agoAt the risk of explaining the joke... "predicted 83 of the last 7 downturns" implies a false positive rate of at least 76 incorrect predictions for 7 correct ones. Of course, if they made 83 downturn predictions but didn't correctly predict the 7 that actually occurred, thee false positive rate could also be worse than that.
- jointpdf 5y agoIt’s a reference to a 50+ year old economics joke: https://worldin.economist.com/article/17506/edition2020dont-bet-recession-2020 https://worldin.economist.com/article/17506/edition2020dont-...
- smitty1e 5y agoMore accessibly: > The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions—a joke from master Keynesian of decades ago Paul Samuelson. https://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2018/11/22/the-stock-market-has-predicted-nine-of-the-past-five-recessions/?sh=4e560203d740 https://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2018/11/22/the-...
- dwiel 5y agoHaha, I read that too fast thanks