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There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Al
by gorwell 5y ago
There was an amusing example of this yesterday with The Economist saying, `The sharp increase in inflation over the past year has blindsided many economists. Almost no one saw it coming`
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808 https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808
- dorianmariefr 5y ago"The less confident you are, the more serious you have to act." – Tara Ploughman
- smitty1e 5y agoZeroHedge has predicted 83 of the last 7 downturns.
- beckingz 5y agoThat's pretty good. How many times were they able to predict the same downturn?
- beamatronic 5y agoI’m still standing for delivery of my physical silver
- dwiel 5y agoI follow ZeroHedge, but this statistic isn't very helpful without knowing the number of false positives or incorrect timing.
- jameshart 5y agoAt the risk of explaining the joke... "predicted 83 of the last 7 downturns" implies a false positive rate of at least 76 incorrect predictions for 7 correct ones. Of course, if they made 83 downturn predictions but didn't correctly predict the 7 that actually occurred, thee false positive rate could also be worse than that.
- jointpdf 5y agoIt’s a reference to a 50+ year old economics joke: https://worldin.economist.com/article/17506/edition2020dont-bet-recession-2020 https://worldin.economist.com/article/17506/edition2020dont-...
- smitty1e 5y agoMore accessibly: > The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions—a joke from master Keynesian of decades ago Paul Samuelson. https://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2018/11/22/the-stock-market-has-predicted-nine-of-the-past-five-recessions/?sh=4e560203d740 https://www.forbes.com/sites/briandomitrovic/2018/11/22/the-...
- dwiel 5y agoHaha, I read that too fast thanks
- fein 5y agoI always remembered this as a Peter Schiff joke.
- smitty1e 5y agoVery likely the source.
- paulpauper 5y agomore like 83 of the last 2 downturns
- NikolaeVarius 5y agoThe social media person at the Economist is bad at their jobs. The article goes into the nuances of the claim. The specific claims are Higher than expected inflation > new data showed that America’s consumer price inflation rose to 5.4% in June, well above economists’ expectations. On July 14th it was revealed that British inflation rose to 2.5% in June, which was also higher than forecast. The specific reason high inflation was not expected was because expected long term slump, which didn't happen > Not long ago economists tended to the view that the covid-19 pandemic would lead to a prolonged slump in the rich world. That view has not worn well > With unexpected growth has come an unexpected spurt of inflation
- WarOnPrivacy 5y agoHow dare you soil my single-sentence belief with this filthy nuance.
- Puts 5y agoWell this is not true. There has been debate about an emerging inflation threat for many years now even long before the pandemic due to the rapid rate central banks are printing money to keep the economy floating since 2008. However in the financial market there are many people whose lives depend on constant growth creating a strong sentiment to either willfully mislead the market or just lie to themselves for comfort and self-preservation.
- Mikeb85 5y agoLol everyone saw it coming, but policymakers needed everyone to think it wouldn't come, otherwise the public appetite for Covid measures would have been far less...