4 ms·

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 entered a holding pattern for 22 minutes

26 points by velmu 5y ago

CPLX 5y ago
“If the pilot’s goal was to make MH370 disappear without trace, then why waste fuel with a holding pattern and why not head directly to most remote area possible of the Indian Ocean without deviation?” I mean I know literally nothing at all and am speculating on top of speculation. But if you were gaming out this plan, wouldn't that seem an opportune moment to execute your plan to disable the other pilot?
- mannykannot 5y ago
  For the airplane to have reached this position, whoever was at the controls at this time must have disabled the other well before, as it is utterly implausible that the other pilot could have been persuaded to cooperate in the flight path to that point, and only slightly less plausible that the pilots conspired to follow that flight path. From these considerations, the other pilot must have been incapacitated at least by the time the airplane flew past Penang, a more-than-adequate airport for an emergency landing, and probably at or before the alleged emergency that started the events. As for the pilot's motives, if this holding pattern did occur, we can only speculate - and I, for one, can speculate that the pilot was balking at taking the final step that would lead to his death, but he was flying a planeload of people killed by his own hand...
robthebrew 5y ago
There is a straight line flight path(if I'm reading this right)looking like a longitude correction, followed by a latitude correction (in the wrong place) for a landing at "BEDAX". Holding pattern waiting for radio comms? Then a ditch to the nearest open sea? Was someone spoofing GPS data? PS: if I am taking out of my hat, then please disregard. I am not a flier, and had to check which is lat and long!
- strogonoff 5y ago
  Most names on an air chart are waypoints. A waypoint is essentially a named pair of GPS coordinates. There are vastly more waypoints than airports. BEDAX is a waypoint in the ocean, you can’t land on it.
  - robthebrew 5y ago
    that just show what little I know. Thank you for clarifying.
    - strogonoff 5y ago
      No problem! Myself gotten into this subject not long ago. Another cool thing is navaids, those are also labeled on charts but they are more interesting than simple waypoints because they have radio. Some navaids are directional and tell your instruments whether you are moving towards them or not, and on which vector (degrees relative to north). You can use navaids and basic radio instruments in an airplane to figure out where you are on a map and where you are heading without any electronics and GPS, you just need to know their frequencies (charts specify those).
baldeagle 5y ago
I’m always skeptical of anything based on ‘revolutionary new technology’ established as the credible source of the claim, without a deep dive or explanation of said tech.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
chiefalchemist 5y ago
> “If the pilot’s goal was to make MH370 disappear without trace, then why waste fuel with a holding pattern and..." If you want to disappear, if the plane is going to crash into the ocean, you want to crash with no fuel. Else, you'll leave an oil / fuel slick. Yes? So burning fuel makes sense, in this scenario.
- tyingq 5y ago
  The 777 can dump fuel. If you're high enough, it dissipates.
  - chiefalchemist 5y ago
    Was the plane high enough? Also, I would presume that's not a simple switch flick. Is the a process / procedure that might prevent doing that?
    - tyingq 5y ago
      There are procedures, but I don't know to what degree the pilot cared. It is pretty close to a simple switch flick: https://imgur.com/a/0ailsxB https://imgur.com/a/0ailsxB
    - mannykannot 5y ago
      Fuel dumped by an airplane breaks up into small droplets in the turbulent slipstream and quickly evaporates before it falls very far - and, being distributed from a fast-moving airplane, leaves only a thin and quickly-dissipating slick on the surface. If the goal was, as you suggest, to get rid of any trace of the fuel, one would simply not do it close to the surface! As it happens, I believe the Inmarsat events and radar intercepts indicate that the airplane was flying at a normal cruising altitude, and the the claim that it flew this pattern puts it at 36,000ft. The simplest way to crash without leaving a fuel slick is to fly until fuel exhaustion. Spending 22 minutes in a holding pattern would put off estimates of how far the airplane could have gone on its fuel load (as would dumping fuel en-route), but I have no reason for thinking this was a motivation of the person then in control of the aircraft.
1cvmask 5y ago
One of the conspiracy theories: New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9407441/Author-reveals-startling-new-theory-missing-Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-jet.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9407441/Author-reve... - There is a history of CIA subterfuge in that area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Lawrence_Pope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Lawrence_Pope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Indonesia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Indonesia
- redis_mlc 5y ago
  The CIA, NTSB and DEA have worked with the Indonesian government at their request since the US advocated for their independence after WW2. They use mostly US military aircraft (F-16, C-130) and get training in the US.
- ericmay 5y ago
  Oooo let me try! This is always fun. New conspiracy theory: China shoots down MH370 because U.S. forces were intercepting it and seizing electronic equipment on the way to China that China didn’t want the U.S. to intercept. Or secret autonomous TikTac drone has gone rogue and is targeting specific airliners to bring down that may evolve and threaten its air supremacy. Please knock off these baseless conspiracy theories. There are 0 electronics in the world that the U.S. is going to shoot down a commercial airliner over. The CIA would just actually do CIA stuff like set up fake companies to ship or receive these items, or impersonate a driver, or any number of other actual realistic things that don’t involve outright murdering lots of people. Oh and good luck keep everyone quiet about it….
  - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
    Maybe they just had a fume event, suffered from aerotoxic syndrome and went mad without realizing it? Maybe they had sparks and fire in the cockpit. B-777 tend(ed?) to do that. (According to Wikipedia at least)
tyingq 5y ago
Marked up the map with some of the article commentary so it's easier to follow: https://imgur.com/a/y2y7GTJ https://imgur.com/a/y2y7GTJ
redis_mlc 5y ago
That hold is very suspicious. Normally holds are either requested by ATC, depicted on arrival/departure procedure charts, or waiting for EFC (expect further clearance) instructions. Pilots don't like them because holds waste time and fuel. ATC doesn't like them because they waste controller time and radio bandwidth. A hold for 22 minutes at 36,000'? Why? The Russian navy likes to lock-on to airliners for "practise", maybe somebody did that. Source: commercially-rated pilot.
blakesterz 5y ago
This link is a short summary of a paper that's here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/wif8oqzgm74sdqv/GDTAAA%20V4%20MH370%2007MAR2014%201716%20UTC%20Paper.pdf?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/wif8oqzgm74sdqv/GDTAAA%20V4%20MH37... Richard Godfrey is the author and he used WSPR "The WSPR protocol exchanges call sign, location and other information between radio stations." I guess it's this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software) I don't know ANYTHING about him or WSPR, so I have no idea what this means.
mannykannot 5y ago
The claim that the pattern was flown at a constant groundspeed of 497 knots[1] seems to imply no (or little) wind at that place, altitude and time. Is that plausible? [1] This claim appears in Godfrey's original, so it is not a case of the reporter misunderstanding.
k3nnyj 5y ago
The aircraft was at 36,000 feet in the hold. Perhaps the pilot put the plane in the hold so he could subdue remaining crew and pax or mess with something outside of the cockpit? At that altitude anyone without oxygen would be passed out or dead (higher than Mt Everest). In another tragedy, A Greek 737 had a pressurization issue (crew failed to communicate because one was Ukrainian and the other was Greek) and it killed everyone except a flight attendant. The FA could not get the plane off autopilot to descend. The aircraft flew to the last waypoint in the FMS and entered a hold and continued holding until it ran out of fuel and crashed. Perhaps that was what happened with this hold except it eventually left the hold for some reason and continued until it ran out of fuel and descended into the ocean?
twelve40 5y ago
No idea if this is any good or not, but some things don't add up: quote from the article: "Neither the Malaysian nor the Indonesian Military have published any radar data" wikipedia: "Data from Malaysian military radar showing Flight 370 (green) crossing the Strait of Malacca and Andaman Sea to where it was last detected by radar." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370#/media/File:MH370_radar.jpeg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370#/...

26 points by velmu 5y ago

CPLX 5y ago

“If the pilot’s goal was to make MH370 disappear without trace, then why waste fuel with a holding pattern and why not head directly to most remote area possible of the Indian Ocean without deviation?” I mean I know literally nothing at all and am speculating on top of speculation. But if you were gaming out this plan, wouldn't that seem an opportune moment to execute your plan to disable the other pilot?

mannykannot 5y ago
For the airplane to have reached this position, whoever was at the controls at this time must have disabled the other well before, as it is utterly implausible that the other pilot could have been persuaded to cooperate in the flight path to that point, and only slightly less plausible that the pilots conspired to follow that flight path. From these considerations, the other pilot must have been incapacitated at least by the time the airplane flew past Penang, a more-than-adequate airport for an emergency landing, and probably at or before the alleged emergency that started the events. As for the pilot's motives, if this holding pattern did occur, we can only speculate - and I, for one, can speculate that the pilot was balking at taking the final step that would lead to his death, but he was flying a planeload of people killed by his own hand...

robthebrew 5y ago

There is a straight line flight path(if I'm reading this right)looking like a longitude correction, followed by a latitude correction (in the wrong place) for a landing at "BEDAX". Holding pattern waiting for radio comms? Then a ditch to the nearest open sea? Was someone spoofing GPS data? PS: if I am taking out of my hat, then please disregard. I am not a flier, and had to check which is lat and long!

strogonoff 5y ago
Most names on an air chart are waypoints. A waypoint is essentially a named pair of GPS coordinates. There are vastly more waypoints than airports. BEDAX is a waypoint in the ocean, you can’t land on it.
- robthebrew 5y ago
  that just show what little I know. Thank you for clarifying.
  - strogonoff 5y ago
    No problem! Myself gotten into this subject not long ago. Another cool thing is navaids, those are also labeled on charts but they are more interesting than simple waypoints because they have radio. Some navaids are directional and tell your instruments whether you are moving towards them or not, and on which vector (degrees relative to north). You can use navaids and basic radio instruments in an airplane to figure out where you are on a map and where you are heading without any electronics and GPS, you just need to know their frequencies (charts specify those).

baldeagle 5y ago

I’m always skeptical of anything based on ‘revolutionary new technology’ established as the credible source of the claim, without a deep dive or explanation of said tech.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

chiefalchemist 5y ago

> “If the pilot’s goal was to make MH370 disappear without trace, then why waste fuel with a holding pattern and..." If you want to disappear, if the plane is going to crash into the ocean, you want to crash with no fuel. Else, you'll leave an oil / fuel slick. Yes? So burning fuel makes sense, in this scenario.

tyingq 5y ago
The 777 can dump fuel. If you're high enough, it dissipates.
- chiefalchemist 5y ago
  Was the plane high enough? Also, I would presume that's not a simple switch flick. Is the a process / procedure that might prevent doing that?
  - tyingq 5y ago
    There are procedures, but I don't know to what degree the pilot cared. It is pretty close to a simple switch flick: https://imgur.com/a/0ailsxB https://imgur.com/a/0ailsxB
  - mannykannot 5y ago
    Fuel dumped by an airplane breaks up into small droplets in the turbulent slipstream and quickly evaporates before it falls very far - and, being distributed from a fast-moving airplane, leaves only a thin and quickly-dissipating slick on the surface. If the goal was, as you suggest, to get rid of any trace of the fuel, one would simply not do it close to the surface! As it happens, I believe the Inmarsat events and radar intercepts indicate that the airplane was flying at a normal cruising altitude, and the the claim that it flew this pattern puts it at 36,000ft. The simplest way to crash without leaving a fuel slick is to fly until fuel exhaustion. Spending 22 minutes in a holding pattern would put off estimates of how far the airplane could have gone on its fuel load (as would dumping fuel en-route), but I have no reason for thinking this was a motivation of the person then in control of the aircraft.

1cvmask 5y ago

One of the conspiracy theories: New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9407441/Author-reveals-startling-new-theory-missing-Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-jet.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9407441/Author-reve... - There is a history of CIA subterfuge in that area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Lawrence_Pope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Lawrence_Pope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Indonesia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Indonesia

redis_mlc 5y ago
The CIA, NTSB and DEA have worked with the Indonesian government at their request since the US advocated for their independence after WW2. They use mostly US military aircraft (F-16, C-130) and get training in the US.
ericmay 5y ago
Oooo let me try! This is always fun. New conspiracy theory: China shoots down MH370 because U.S. forces were intercepting it and seizing electronic equipment on the way to China that China didn’t want the U.S. to intercept. Or secret autonomous TikTac drone has gone rogue and is targeting specific airliners to bring down that may evolve and threaten its air supremacy. Please knock off these baseless conspiracy theories. There are 0 electronics in the world that the U.S. is going to shoot down a commercial airliner over. The CIA would just actually do CIA stuff like set up fake companies to ship or receive these items, or impersonate a driver, or any number of other actual realistic things that don’t involve outright murdering lots of people. Oh and good luck keep everyone quiet about it….
- LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
  Maybe they just had a fume event, suffered from aerotoxic syndrome and went mad without realizing it? Maybe they had sparks and fire in the cockpit. B-777 tend(ed?) to do that. (According to Wikipedia at least)

tyingq 5y ago

Marked up the map with some of the article commentary so it's easier to follow: https://imgur.com/a/y2y7GTJ https://imgur.com/a/y2y7GTJ

redis_mlc 5y ago

That hold is very suspicious. Normally holds are either requested by ATC, depicted on arrival/departure procedure charts, or waiting for EFC (expect further clearance) instructions. Pilots don't like them because holds waste time and fuel. ATC doesn't like them because they waste controller time and radio bandwidth. A hold for 22 minutes at 36,000'? Why? The Russian navy likes to lock-on to airliners for "practise", maybe somebody did that. Source: commercially-rated pilot.

blakesterz 5y ago

This link is a short summary of a paper that's here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/wif8oqzgm74sdqv/GDTAAA%20V4%20MH370%2007MAR2014%201716%20UTC%20Paper.pdf?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/wif8oqzgm74sdqv/GDTAAA%20V4%20MH37... Richard Godfrey is the author and he used WSPR "The WSPR protocol exchanges call sign, location and other information between radio stations." I guess it's this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WSPR_(amateur_radio_software) I don't know ANYTHING about him or WSPR, so I have no idea what this means.

mannykannot 5y ago

The claim that the pattern was flown at a constant groundspeed of 497 knots[1] seems to imply no (or little) wind at that place, altitude and time. Is that plausible? [1] This claim appears in Godfrey's original, so it is not a case of the reporter misunderstanding.

k3nnyj 5y ago

The aircraft was at 36,000 feet in the hold. Perhaps the pilot put the plane in the hold so he could subdue remaining crew and pax or mess with something outside of the cockpit? At that altitude anyone without oxygen would be passed out or dead (higher than Mt Everest). In another tragedy, A Greek 737 had a pressurization issue (crew failed to communicate because one was Ukrainian and the other was Greek) and it killed everyone except a flight attendant. The FA could not get the plane off autopilot to descend. The aircraft flew to the last waypoint in the FMS and entered a hold and continued holding until it ran out of fuel and crashed. Perhaps that was what happened with this hold except it eventually left the hold for some reason and continued until it ran out of fuel and descended into the ocean?

twelve40 5y ago

No idea if this is any good or not, but some things don't add up: quote from the article: "Neither the Malaysian nor the Indonesian Military have published any radar data" wikipedia: "Data from Malaysian military radar showing Flight 370 (green) crossing the Strait of Malacca and Andaman Sea to where it was last detected by radar." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370#/media/File:MH370_radar.jpeg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370#/...