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The Age of AI by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel Huttenlocher
- dilawar 5y agoTo me, the real proof that AI cab be an existential threat would be that it can predict the weather to a very good degree. If an AI can handle the complexity at that level, it is definately a force to reckon with. So far the progress has been impressive?
- mdp2021 5y agoFollowing the article, AI can become an existential threat if empowered humans which cannot "«predict the weather to a very good degree»" in turn empower AI, which may decide unchecked something along the lines of "to be accurate about predicting the weather a nuclear holocaust could be a good move" (very stretched image for rhetoric purpose). More literally: what happens if, for example, weapons systems are automated by black boxes? So-called "expert systems", for example, remaining within automation, can be instructed more clearly, explicitly, deterministically, about values and boundaries. That the results of "black box decision systems" can be surprising is also a risk.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y agoNot a "paperclip optimizer", but a "weather prediction optimizer" - nice!
- mdp2021 5y agoMy expression fell under the vibes of the more generic "paperclip maximizer argument" because I wanted to remain faithful to the "weather" idea, but could not get a better image. Nonetheless, the details of the "paperclip maximizer argument" are valid, though not primary, for the real point: AI applied to strategy, tactics, defence and weapon management can suffer from the "Orthogonality thesis" (the decision may be out of a process unaware of human values) and "Instrumental convergence" (the decision may be out of a process unaware of its legitimate boundaries). The primary point remains "You do not put an "enfant prodige" in charge of systems with overextensive consequences".
- knorker 5y agoWhat is about? How to overthrow democracies, and prolong the Vietnam by years in order to undermine your opponent's POTUS bid... But this time using AI? Maybe how to select which terrorist group to give weapons to? Kissinger can supply the training data.
- mdp2021 5y agoExactly that - also considering implicitly that humans can make literally questionable decisions - to automate them decisions outside human consideration is probably not a good idea.
- throwaway4good 5y agohttps://archive.md/AjadO https://archive.md/AjadO
- bob331 5y agoKissinger is a war criminal
- williamtrask 5y ago> “Whether we consider it a tool, a partner, or a rival, [ai] will alter our experience as reasoning beings and permanently change our relationship with reality,” the authors write. “The result will be a new epoch.” If uttered by a Soylent-quaffing coder, that sentiment might be dismissed as hyperbole. Coming from authors of this pedigree, it ought to be taken seriously. Predicting how AI will affect society’s sense of reality is best left to politicians and CEOs (or CS department heads)? They’re making a psychological/sociological claim here, not a business, political, or technical one. Are they qualified to predict what society will use as a basis for reality? Also they have plenty to gain by this agenda being believed (maybe not Henry I dunno).
- cyberlurker 5y agoI don’t think they wrote this book to push an agenda for personal gain. It seems like a standard, reasonable caution of what could come to pass from irresponsible use of AI. And they are actually more qualified than the usual crowd warning of these risks.
- randcraw 5y agoI would agree that these authors are speaking to a different audience and a different purpose than most authors of pop sci books. I think they want to reach political leaders, businessmen, and regulators to forewarn of the many impacts of adopting deep learning-based “AI” in mainstream commercial, government, and military services. And likely, disruptive impacts, due to the sudden and deep shifts in the status quo that will surely result. Unlike most books to date, this book about AI is not intended for technologists or tech fanboys. When the three authors are the CEO that oversaw the growth of a now-trillion dollar behemoth high tech corporation, and the singly most experienced political counselor of hundreds of world leaders and staffs for the past 50 years, and the Dean of MIT's school of computing — they hope their collective gravitas will speak to a more sober and authoritative audience than prior books on AI.
- mdp2021 5y ago> how AI will affect society’s sense of reality Following the article, the scope is probably specific: they raise the problem of "transparency" ("how and why does the black box indicate this solution") as primary, especially in the context of policies and reaction. Decisions (long and short term) have been up to now taken as the result of a discussion between human minds. What happens if black boxes are now entrusted? Results of the application of AI in the medical field suggest its increased adoption in other sectors, but the special quality of these outputs are in that they are surprising and obscure (as opposed to, notably, teaching new abilities). The possibility of application of these technologies - possibility called a certainty by the author, authoritative in his field - to matters of national security, defence, strategy and tactics, is surely a problem. What is proposed and encouraged is that countries with values consistent with those of the authors gain an advantage (to counter automated "psychopath" decisions). -- From the interview documentary The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara: McNamara met Fidel Castro years after the crisis, and Castro declared never having had issues with taking actions which could have caused the utter annihilation of Cuba. To the utter bewilderment of McNamara. This could represent an example of «values consistent with those of the authors».
- jimnotgym 5y agoBlack mark for the Economist for UI issues 1) Giant 'please subscribe' banner, similar button top right. But I am a subscriber already, and I have to search around to be able to log in 2) in 2021 what login box is still being undone by a space at the end of an email address? Really? Mobile devices often add spaces, can we not deal with that?
- rado 5y ago2) Bank sites refuse IBAN with spaces...
- jason-phillips 5y agoBrave browser > block scripts toggle button
- cyberlurker 5y agoBased on this article I see nothing new idea wise, but the reputation of the authors hopefully encourages policy makers to take AI risks seriously. As the second to last paragraph points out, the book doesn’t delve into some modern day controversies to make its points. The pros being the ideas might be spread further, maybe even to China. The cons being the book isn’t as timely and impactful as it could be. It seems like a good trade off to me.
- bambax 5y ago> Henry Kissinger, America’s pre-eminent living statesman Henry Kissinger is a war criminal. That doesn't mean he can't write interesting books (and his intelligence & experience are obviously immense) but it does mean he doesn't deserve that kind of flattery and respect.
- cyberlurker 5y agoWikipedia: “ According to historian and Kissinger biographer Niall Ferguson, however, accusing Kissinger alone of war crimes "requires a double standard" because "nearly all the secretaries of state ... and nearly all the presidents" have taken similar actions. But Ferguson continues "this is not to say that it's all OK."”
- AndyMcConachie 5y agoPlease realize that if you're famous like Henry Kissinger you pay people to scrub your wikipedia page. Don't learn about Kissinger from Wikipedia.
- cyberlurker 5y agoI’m just citing a nuanced view of him. But speaking of Wikipedia, check this out: “Kissinger served on the board of Theranos, a health technology company, from 2014 to 2017.” I would probably scrub this if I were on his team.
- boomboomsubban 5y agoIs saying he's not the only war criminal Secretary of State really a nuanced view?
- DonHopkins 5y agoAll the juicy stuff ends up in the talk archives: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_6 Like this that didn't make it to the front page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_4#%22Dumb,_stupid_animals...%22 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_4... >"Dumb, stupid animals..." >Indeed, Kissinger's quote is found on pg. 194 of Woodward/Bernstein book The Final Days, which is considered a notable secondary source. However, the quote in the book is in a section highlighting Kissinger's difficult, and often abusive, relationship with White House staff. The specific context is the contentious relationship with Alexander Haig, Kissinger's military aide - the quote is given as a demonstration of how Kissinger allegedly taunted and belittled Haig. Woodward/Bernstein do NOT use the quote as any kind of authentic evidence that Kissinger hated the military, or that this was an opinion that formed any of Kissinger's foreign policy decisions. By placing the quote in that section, WE'RE (Wikipedia and NOT Woodward/Bernstein) attempting to make the connection and asserting this was Kissinger's attitude in approaching foreign policy. That connection is NOT supported by the source so it's not acceptable in a biography of a living person.EBY (talk) 09:13, 25 May 2013 (UTC) >I accept your rationale. There is nowhere else to put it unless I start a new section but I won't because it would be vexatious to do so simply to accommodate the quote. Sqgl (talk) 16:06, 25 May 2013 (UTC)sqgl >>It's tough because this kind of inflammatory quote IS indicative of one of the prominent aspects of Kissinger's personality, which is why Woodward/Bernstein included it in their book. But as you say, I don't see a place to integrate it that wouldn't blow the B:LP hatch. EBY (talk) 16:25, 25 May 2013 (UTC) >He might shoot his mouth off more than others, and he may even be more guilty than others (Hitchens certainly thinks so, as noted), but realpolitik is ugly and examples of it as revealed in CableGate are educational. The reason the leaks were sensational is because so many are in denial of realpolitik and those in power want to keep it that way. Personally Obama reminds me of Gus from Breaking Bad so don't think I am being partisan here.Sqgl (talk) 18:17, 25 May 2013 (UTC)sqgl >>I agree that examples are educational. Which makes me wonder about articles and even venues outside the WikiWorld that could advance that knowledge. EBY (talk) 18:22, 25 May 2013 (UTC) >I here what you are saying and defer to your experience on this site.Sqgl (talk) 18:28, 25 May 2013 (UTC)sqgl Or this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_2#Slobodan_Milosevic_and_Kissinger_compared https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Henry_Kissinger/Archive_2... >Slobodan Milosevic and Kissinger compared >[From a public interview on June 11, 2004.] On May 27, the New York Times published one of the most incredible sentences I’ve ever seen. They ran an article about the Nixon–Kissinger interchanges. Kissinger fought very hard through the courts to try to prevent it, but the courts permitted it. You read through it, and you see the following statement embedded in it. Nixon at one point informs Kissinger, his right-hand Eichmann, that he wanted bombing of Cambodia. >And Kissinger loyally transmits the order to the Pentagon to carry out "a massive bombing campaign in Cambodia. Anything that flies on anything that moves." >That is the most explicit call for what we call genocide when other people do it that I’ve ever seen in the historical record. Right at this moment there is a prosecution of Milošević going on in the international tribunal, and the prosecutors are kind of hampered because they can’t find direct orders, or a direct connection even, linking Milošević to any atrocities on the ground. Suppose they found a statement like this. Suppose a document came out from Milošević saying, "Reduce Kosovo to rubble. Anything that flies on anything that moves." They would be overjoyed. The trial would be over. He would be sent away for multiple life sentences—if it was a U.S. trial, immediately the electric chair. ~ Noam Chomsky —Preceding unsigned comment added by Dsnow75 (talk • contribs) 09:45, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
- boomboomsubban 5y agoReally hard to believe that a CEO of a company with the motto "don't be evil" could write a book with Kissinger. It's unsurprising that the book's main push seems to be for more AI war research as a method of saving lives.
- bob331 5y agoKissinger is evil and schmidt has committed much evil. They are well suited
- HenryKissinger 5y agoWhat evil did I commit?
- dang 5y agoI've let this account for probably longer than we should've, but trollish usernames are not allowed on HN (https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20trollish%20username https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...) and you clearly crossed the line here. I've banned the account. In principle we'd be happy to rename it for you, but you've also been posting a lot of comments that go against the site guidelines, so we'd need some reason to believe that the account would also behave differently under a different name.
- DonHopkins 5y agoSays they guy whose username is an Eek-A-Mouse lyric about Ganja Smuggling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b21zIF3lAZo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b21zIF3lAZo https://www.google.com/search?q=Eek+A+Mouse+lyrics https://www.google.com/search?q=Eek+A+Mouse+lyrics [...] Me an me girl name Jane Dang dang Didi bong gong Gidi bong gong Gidi men Bena bena bohoi Spen dem dem Gena men Bong gong Gidi bong gong Gidi bong gong Gidi ben Bena bena bohoi Gen gen Gena men-den Down dere in the ghetto I go, where tribulation I once know Mummy an daddy, all a' we so poor, We all had to sleep on the floor Storm it come and it blow down me door, Me ha fi nail up me window Me shoes tear up, me toe just a show, Me nuh know a where fi really wan' go Mama tell me "nah rob drug store, Police beat yuh, mek yu back sore" Dang dang Didi dang dang Gidi bang gang Gidi men Bena bohoi Bene bi deberen ehya
- voz_ 5y agoAwful tone, low quality writing. What's going on over at the Economist?
- visarga 5y agoI was expecting some direct quotes as promised in the title. Disappointed.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- dr_dshiv 5y agoMaybe one of the biggest risks of AI is reifying it, or treating it like a real thing. We may romantically desire AI as an agent with independence, but in my view, this is always a serious mistake. “AI thinking” causes executives to treat classes of technology like a magical black box add-on and causes engineers to remove human involvement. So long as human input is required, the intelligence isn’t artificial— and that leads to disasters like Zillow’s AI algorithm. This is all a matter of design. We shouldn’t try to design artificial Intelligence, we should design intelligent systems (ones that support systemic success and wellbeing). ML, GANs, transformers, bots and other technologies are cool tools. Let’s not fool others or ourselves by calling them AI. The clear and present danger is the creation of powerful intelligent systems that we can’t control and that decrease overall system success/wellbeing. Like corporations that aren’t beholden to broader societal interests. That’s the real “AI“ challenge we need to address. And, how do we enable the governing systems in our society to act intelligently? We desperately need more functional governance at scale.
- mjburgess 5y agoI think it's just a matter of the penny dropping. When self-driving cars aren't here over the next few years; and when more big biz tries and fails with 'AI' -- we will enter another winter. I have to say it will be schadenfreude from me -- given the absolutely reckless behaviour of the army of grant-chasing academics happy to inflate the bubble. When that funding suddenly disappears, it'll be there own fault.
- varelse 5y agoAs skeptical as I am of the AGI and even full self-driving, successes like AlphaGo, AlphaFold 2, and Deepfakery from video to voice all demonstrate the technology can do things we never really could do before. But in all of those cases humans are in the loop to either build the system at scale or to keep it from going off the rails in production. I see much more of that in the next decade. And I don't think there's going to be an AI winter but I do hope there's a reckoning for all the snake oilers of AI out there. I mean they're the same people who snake oil for crypto too, and they're just getting their game on for snake oiling the metaverse. Maybe that will happen for AI VC, but as someone else said, VC is where good ideas go to die.
- bratwurst3000 5y agoI just wanted to state how annoying it is that Kissinger is still alive… it’s like some of the worst parts of the 20th Century still laughing in the face of humanism.
- 650REDHAIR 5y agoAlive and respected. It’s disgusting.
- SyzygistSix 5y agoLaughing in the face of humanity and humankind.
- fortran77 5y agoI hope Henry Kissinger is better informed on AI tech than he was on Theranos blood-testing tech.
- zackham 5y agoI heard Schmidt on a couple podcasts[1][2] recently promoting this book, and I found them to be useful for understanding how AI is being discussed among the political and leadership class. I was surprised to see all the negativity here - I thought he made some interesting points, and I appreciated getting some insight into how decision-makers are thinking about this in terms of regulation and geopolitical risks. [1] https://tim.blog/2021/10/25/eric-schmidt-ai/ https://tim.blog/2021/10/25/eric-schmidt-ai/ [2] https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/eric-schmidt-ai-human-future-national-security/ https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/eric-schmidt-ai-human-futur...
- jeffrallen 5y agoMaybe the negativity is due to the fact that Eric chose an unindicted war criminal as his co-author?
- zackham 5y agoI understand the points being made, it's just not what I choose to focus on in the very limited time I'm going to spend engaging with this material. The purpose of my comment was to let any other tech-focused visitors to this site know that I did find some value on the periphery of this book, in case they are equally uninterested in hearing everyone's hot takes on a 98 year old who's already had books written about his life's negative impacts.
- Paul_S 5y agoAh, Henry Kissinger, wouldn't trust someone who backed a fraudster (theranos) and enabled her to scam even more people. Maybe his judgment isn't what it used to be.
- ch4s3 5y agoWhen was Kissinger's judgement ever good?
- almeria 5y agoDepends what you mean by "good". For the ruthlessly cynical and basically destructive ends toward which this man has devoted his life - his judgement is arguably quite effective. That is, after all, how you get to be "America's preeminent living statesman".
- ch4s3 5y ago> how you get to be "America's preeminent living statesman" Mostly by having been in the room during historical decisions, getting old, and refusing to ever go away even when your contributions proved to be disastrous. Kissinger's plan to bomb rice production in Cambodia not only failed to stop the North Vietnamese, but directly lead to the rise of Pol Pot. It also starved millions of civilians. The guy is a monster.
- peter303 5y agoThe ongoing Holmes trial revealed all kinds of celebrity and private equity investors were snookered. Retired politicians are eager to jump onto the Silicon Valley gravy train as directors. George Bush Sr made a killing participating in the Global Crossing fiber cable venture.
- HenryKissinger 5y agoThis looks great. I can't wait to read it.
- johnohara 5y agoFTA: "Since the technology cannot be un-invented, the book calls on America to develop and shape the military applications of AI, rather than surrendering the field to countries that do not share its values." The past 60 years have made me skeptical about what those values actually are.
- alpineidyll3 5y ago...The recent history of the country bears witness to H Kissinger's values perhaps more than any other person. Unfortunately I don't think 'AGI shouldn't be used against humanity' is in there alongside Realpolitik. If we are safe from AGI it will be because the power majority believes anti-human AGI is ammoral, not because we get it first.
- tuatoru 5y agoThey're expressed in the S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ, etc. Edit: Going by the rule "your values are demonstrated by what you do, even when it costs you to do that", it's fairly easy to figure out what they are.
- Lamad123 5y agoI thought Henry Kssgr was dead 30 years ago or something!!
- peter303 5y agoThe two younger authors had a webinar about this book at the Computer History Museum earlier this week. (I presume Henry at the ripe age of 98 cant easily participate in panels anymore. Though Henry showed up at Stanford Memorial Church in August to speak at successor George Schultz's memorial.) The CHM webinar might be archived online. I am still waiting for a copy of the book. But I am under the impression Henry is providing the long view of history: how industrialization and tech shaped modern nations, with A.I. in particular. This theme has appeared in earlier Kissinger books. P.S. Kissinger has yet another book coming out in 2022 on Leadership.
- twangist 5y agoCan't wait to ignore his forthcoming 2022 volume too. This ethics-free "thinker" can't be taken seriously.
- cblconfederate 5y agoI heard Schmidt talking about the book in podcasts, and from what i understand he bases his view of the success of NLP models like GPT*. I think this is sorely misguided, as nothing suggests that these models, which can generate readable text, are any form of intelligent or have any kind of agency. Nothing in the structure of a transformer indicates an ability for such things. GTPs seem to be more like a "central pattern generator" for language, like the neural circuits that make patterns like walking possible. The arguments weren't convincing and imho lacked insight beyond cheap fearmongering.
- mdp2021 5y agoAre you stating that the issue Schmidt notes is that of the dangers of systems that "may approach intelligence"? Because it seemed that the issue remains with the dangers of systems that do not "approach intelligence" to decent and reliable degree.
- MichaelMoser123 5y agoThe wikipedia article on Kissinger mentions a Dr. Strangelove aspect, not mentioned in the linked review: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kissinger#Views_on_U.S._foreign_policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kissinger#Views_on_U.S._... """ Computers and nuclear weapons In 2019, Kissinger wrote about the increasing tendency to give control of nuclear weapons to computers operating with Artificial Intelligence (AI) that: "Adversaries' ignorance of AI-developed configurations will become a strategic advantage".[195] Kissinger argued that giving power to launch nuclear weapons to computers using algorithms to make decisions would eliminate the human factor and give the advantage to the state that had the most effective AI system as a computer can make decisions about war and peace far faster than any human ever could.[195] Just as an AI-enhanced computer can win chess games by anticipating human decision-making, an AI-enhanced computer could be useful in a crisis as in a nuclear war, the side that strikes first would have the advantage by destroying the opponent's nuclear capacity. Kissinger also noted there was always the danger that a computer would make a decision to start a nuclear war that before diplomacy had been exhausted or the algorithm controlling the AI might make a decision to start a nuclear war that would be not understandable to the operators.[196] Kissinger also warned the use of AI to control nuclear weapons would impose "opacity" on the decision-making process as the algorithms that control the AI system are not readily understandable, destabilizing the decision-making process: ... grand strategy requires an understanding of the capabilities and military deployments of potential adversaries. But if more and more intelligence becomes opaque, how will policy makers understand the views and abilities of their adversaries and perhaps even allies? Will many different internets emerge or, in the end, only one? What will be the implications for cooperation? For confrontation? As AI becomes ubiquitous, new concepts for its security need to emerge.[196] """
- jpochtar 5y agoKissinger's "World Order" (2014) is much, much better for anyone interested in how the internet will shape the future of governments. 10/10 do recommend. This book ("The Age of AI", Kissinger, 2021) is as good as a Business Insider article written by a European regulator. Read "World Order" instead! Whatever you think of Kissinger, I guarantee you'll learn something from his 2014 book.