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I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2022, what's to stop another lockdown in 2024 and in 2026 etc.? Imagine the mental health implications, especially on children and teenagers, whose entire childhood would be altered by covid. Imagine "who knows if we're going to have Christmas this year? We have to see the forecast for cases and hospitalizations", every year for every special event. People will celebrate Christmas and hang out and go to huge events or they will literally go insane. Also, there would be massive supply chain issues like you said. Possibly big enough to actually kill people. So now we have to actually weigh the casualties of lockdown vs the casualties of a virus. It was different in 2020. The lockdown in 2020 was designed to be short-term. It was also much more serious, because we had no idea just how dangerous covid was, and we actually had a chance of eradicating the disease entirely. That's why we could shut-down schools, cancel events planned years in advance, make court appointments virtual, and otherwise significantly alter critical parts of society. And even then, even in early 2020, there was a not-so-small vocal minority of people (idiots) who refused to believe covid existed. That's not to say we'll do nothing and assume covid is over. I do believe society can adjust to "stay safe" in the long-term with routine vaccination, mask-wearing in public spaces, and just being aware that covid exists. Also things like WVH and online classes (for those who want to take online) are here to stay. But people are not going to follow a "new normal" where every social interaction is weighed against the virus.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago
If there is a lockdown again, there had better not be high government officials ignoring it (especially ones who advocated for it). Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. We are done with hypocritical bigshots telling us what we have to do "for the greater good", and then deciding that they're too important for the rules to apply to them.
- snerbles 5y ago
  > Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. People still have their Big Macs and Netflix, they will seethe in relative silence while they're smothered.
tuatoru 5y ago
Yes, covid is endemic now. Everyone will just get on with life. Over time mask wearing will fade away. With luck the annual covid vaccination will be be free (and mandatory for many occupations) and it will be combined with an annual flu shot, and under-12s will get it also. (Super cynical remark: for a decade or more policy wonks have been agonising about the coming "tsunami" of healthcare needs as the Boomers age, and the political pressure to provide that care--Boomers know how to vote! I think that government planners secretly won't be too unhappy that covid takes out some of the sickest, most high-need elders.)
- errantmind 5y ago
  In Texas, mask wearing was never much of a thing outside major cities. Even in major cities it appears to be below 50% indoors. No major issues with Covid at the moment [1]. https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-bed-capacity-and-occupancy/ https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-...
ploika 5y ago
Some parts of the world will definitely lock down again in 2022. I'm in Ireland and fully expecting a hard lockdown in January. I want to believe that the pandemic will move some health systems away from almost just-in-time lean resourcing towards having more unused capacity to soak up shocks without being overwhelmed. I predict a single step in that direction for 2022.
- ksaj 5y ago
  They're preparing to lock down in Austria right now. 2022 is only a month and a bit away. So yes, I very much expect this "prediction" to be more like continuing current news.
tasogare 5y ago
I agree that at first a lockdown was arguably a somewhat half-reasonable option when the dangerousness of covid was unknown but since then it have been very clear that it's impacting only a very small segment of the population (very old people and those in overweight), yet it has been handled as if everyone were at risk. At this point covid is a manufactured crisis used by governments as a power grab over citizens freedom, and pharmaceutical groups to get magic money. This has to stop. The lives of young people, who need to study, socialize, meet a partner, start a career are heavily negatively impacted by all those measures taken to save a few retired people that already did all those things. This is profoundly injust. Scared of covid? Then fine, do a personal lockdown but don't ask for the whole society and human interactions to stop for this. People would barely notice it's existence (like in Africa) if the media weren't speaking about it.
- x1ph0z 5y ago
  Everyone is at risk, since people don’t suddenly die from COVID, they take hospital space and resources. So if covid patients start filling up ICU’s a hospital’s capacity to deal with other emergencies become limited. You and I may not be at direct risk of COVID but definitely will have an impact on our health.
adrianmsmith 5y ago
> I really don't see us ever locking down again. I wish that were true. But I live in Austria (Europe) and there is a full lockdown starting tomorrow (Monday). Officially it's just going to be for a few weeks, but that's what they said every time before, and it always got extended before, so I don't have any reason to suspect this time will be different. I imagine (but I could be wrong) that it'll extend into 2022. Perhaps it'll just be limited to Austria, but generally in the past when one country went into a lockdown other countries were in a lockdown a few weeks or a month later...

AnimalMuppet 5y ago

If there is a lockdown again, there had better not be high government officials ignoring it (especially ones who advocated for it). Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. We are done with hypocritical bigshots telling us what we have to do "for the greater good", and then deciding that they're too important for the rules to apply to them.

snerbles 5y ago
> Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. People still have their Big Macs and Netflix, they will seethe in relative silence while they're smothered.

tuatoru 5y ago

Yes, covid is endemic now. Everyone will just get on with life. Over time mask wearing will fade away. With luck the annual covid vaccination will be be free (and mandatory for many occupations) and it will be combined with an annual flu shot, and under-12s will get it also. (Super cynical remark: for a decade or more policy wonks have been agonising about the coming "tsunami" of healthcare needs as the Boomers age, and the political pressure to provide that care--Boomers know how to vote! I think that government planners secretly won't be too unhappy that covid takes out some of the sickest, most high-need elders.)

errantmind 5y ago
In Texas, mask wearing was never much of a thing outside major cities. Even in major cities it appears to be below 50% indoors. No major issues with Covid at the moment [1]. https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-bed-capacity-and-occupancy/ https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-...

ploika 5y ago

Some parts of the world will definitely lock down again in 2022. I'm in Ireland and fully expecting a hard lockdown in January. I want to believe that the pandemic will move some health systems away from almost just-in-time lean resourcing towards having more unused capacity to soak up shocks without being overwhelmed. I predict a single step in that direction for 2022.

ksaj 5y ago
They're preparing to lock down in Austria right now. 2022 is only a month and a bit away. So yes, I very much expect this "prediction" to be more like continuing current news.

tasogare 5y ago

I agree that at first a lockdown was arguably a somewhat half-reasonable option when the dangerousness of covid was unknown but since then it have been very clear that it's impacting only a very small segment of the population (very old people and those in overweight), yet it has been handled as if everyone were at risk. At this point covid is a manufactured crisis used by governments as a power grab over citizens freedom, and pharmaceutical groups to get magic money. This has to stop. The lives of young people, who need to study, socialize, meet a partner, start a career are heavily negatively impacted by all those measures taken to save a few retired people that already did all those things. This is profoundly injust. Scared of covid? Then fine, do a personal lockdown but don't ask for the whole society and human interactions to stop for this. People would barely notice it's existence (like in Africa) if the media weren't speaking about it.

x1ph0z 5y ago
Everyone is at risk, since people don’t suddenly die from COVID, they take hospital space and resources. So if covid patients start filling up ICU’s a hospital’s capacity to deal with other emergencies become limited. You and I may not be at direct risk of COVID but definitely will have an impact on our health.

adrianmsmith 5y ago

> I really don't see us ever locking down again. I wish that were true. But I live in Austria (Europe) and there is a full lockdown starting tomorrow (Monday). Officially it's just going to be for a few weeks, but that's what they said every time before, and it always got extended before, so I don't have any reason to suspect this time will be different. I imagine (but I could be wrong) that it'll extend into 2022. Perhaps it'll just be limited to Austria, but generally in the past when one country went into a lockdown other countries were in a lockdown a few weeks or a month later...