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- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 20

by idrios 5y ago

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. - Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. If the first 2 happen, then I do not think crypto will crash. I'm fairly sure the reason it blew up this year was a combination of people being bored at home because of lockdown and people trying to protect against inflation.

jeffreyrogers 5y ago
Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down the price of crypto.
- idrios 5y ago
  This doesn't sound exactly right to me. "forced to move their crypto assets to things like [x]" just sounds like a different way to say "buy [x] with crypto" instead of with USD. Edit because I was downvoted: This genuinely goes against my intuition. The recommended alternatives were housing, food (don't know if the parent meant stock up on nonperishables or buy farmland & livestock), and equipment. This sounded like preparing for complete economic collapse. If that's the level of inflation we're talking about, then we have much bigger things to worry about than how crypto will be doing.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  Gold isn't a productive asset either, but people all around the world use gold as, essentially, a short against fiat currencies. Crypto could take over that role; I'm not sure that it will.
  - muzani 5y ago
    I prefer bitcoin over gold only because gold is not in my hands, and if it were, it's subject to theft.
    - tmn 5y ago
      Your Bitcoin is also subject to theft. Hard theft or soft theft (lack of access). The chance of theft of either is relatively small. Seems like a non concern
    - herval 5y ago
      The gold most people invest in isn’t on anyone’s hands either: most people buy gold ETFs or futures. You can totally buy those?
  - tata71 5y ago
    It already has. Has outperformed gold the last decade.
  - musicale 5y ago
    Gold is also a scarce and not cheaply substitutable physical material that is used in electronics (it's an excellent conductor that resists corrosion) and jewelry (it's a beautiful, non-toxic metal that can be made durable while remaining malleable.)

by idrios 5y ago

jeffreyrogers 5y ago

Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down the price of crypto.

idrios 5y ago
This doesn't sound exactly right to me. "forced to move their crypto assets to things like [x]" just sounds like a different way to say "buy [x] with crypto" instead of with USD. Edit because I was downvoted: This genuinely goes against my intuition. The recommended alternatives were housing, food (don't know if the parent meant stock up on nonperishables or buy farmland & livestock), and equipment. This sounded like preparing for complete economic collapse. If that's the level of inflation we're talking about, then we have much bigger things to worry about than how crypto will be doing.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
AnimalMuppet 5y ago
Gold isn't a productive asset either, but people all around the world use gold as, essentially, a short against fiat currencies. Crypto could take over that role; I'm not sure that it will.
- muzani 5y ago
  I prefer bitcoin over gold only because gold is not in my hands, and if it were, it's subject to theft.
  - tmn 5y ago
    Your Bitcoin is also subject to theft. Hard theft or soft theft (lack of access). The chance of theft of either is relatively small. Seems like a non concern
  - herval 5y ago
    The gold most people invest in isn’t on anyone’s hands either: most people buy gold ETFs or futures. You can totally buy those?
- tata71 5y ago
  It already has. Has outperformed gold the last decade.
- musicale 5y ago
  Gold is also a scarce and not cheaply substitutable physical material that is used in electronics (it's an excellent conductor that resists corrosion) and jewelry (it's a beautiful, non-toxic metal that can be made durable while remaining malleable.)