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I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote w

I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote work is here to stay. Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was. The culture wars will continue humming away in the foreground, distracting us from our declining quality of life and the transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes taking place before our eyes. Overall, it will get worse as our current predicament perhaps needs to.

bshipp 5y ago
I'd argue that rents will fall as large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market. The end of a decade (almost 2, actually) of quantitative easing and and resulting increase in interest rates is the death knell for asset value-derived investment. This includes any stock where the value is not correlated with revenue.
- runnerup 5y ago
  > large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market Are people currently not living in this housing? How much un-lived in property is there? I don't see much, if any, in Houston. But house purchase prices here still doubled in the past few years.
- l33tbro 5y ago
  I purposely avoided the asset bubble collapse because it's all so volatile and overhwelming right now. But you're right - and it would quite likley crater rents.
- randomopining 5y ago
  Don't most just get fixed rate mortgages?
AnimalMuppet 5y ago
> I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. > Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). I think these two contradict each other. Inflation is fake, but interest rates rise? > Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was. Yup.
mrfusion 5y ago
You’re spot on! Except for the deflation part.
ganeshkrishnan 5y ago
>I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing There is going to be an excess supply shock in first quarter of q4. Most of the suppliers are over stocked up to such an extent and most 3PLs are over capacity and unable to take up any new clients. And not sure how "fake" the inflation is. The cost of container from china was $1k before pandemic. Now its $10k-$20k. Though rates are falling back its not enough https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container-freight-index/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container...
trcarney 5y ago
>I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. The inflation is not fake. It is being caused the but incredible amount of dollars that have been created in the last 2 years. There were $12 trillion added to the money supply in May 2020 alone, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL. Before May 2020 There were only $4.7 trillion in circulation in April 2020. This the text book case of inflation.
randomopining 5y ago
But don't most people just get fixed rates?
runnerup 5y ago
Rents going up (faster than usual) is nearly a per se inflationary environment for most Americans due to rent being a high % of income. You're arguing that would happen, but you'd label it a deflationary environment?

bshipp 5y ago

I'd argue that rents will fall as large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market. The end of a decade (almost 2, actually) of quantitative easing and and resulting increase in interest rates is the death knell for asset value-derived investment. This includes any stock where the value is not correlated with revenue.

runnerup 5y ago
> large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market Are people currently not living in this housing? How much un-lived in property is there? I don't see much, if any, in Houston. But house purchase prices here still doubled in the past few years.
l33tbro 5y ago
I purposely avoided the asset bubble collapse because it's all so volatile and overhwelming right now. But you're right - and it would quite likley crater rents.
randomopining 5y ago
Don't most just get fixed rate mortgages?

AnimalMuppet 5y ago

> I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. > Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). I think these two contradict each other. Inflation is fake, but interest rates rise? > Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was. Yup.

mrfusion 5y ago

You’re spot on! Except for the deflation part.

ganeshkrishnan 5y ago

>I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing There is going to be an excess supply shock in first quarter of q4. Most of the suppliers are over stocked up to such an extent and most 3PLs are over capacity and unable to take up any new clients. And not sure how "fake" the inflation is. The cost of container from china was $1k before pandemic. Now its $10k-$20k. Though rates are falling back its not enough https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container-freight-index/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container...

trcarney 5y ago

>I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. The inflation is not fake. It is being caused the but incredible amount of dollars that have been created in the last 2 years. There were $12 trillion added to the money supply in May 2020 alone, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL. Before May 2020 There were only $4.7 trillion in circulation in April 2020. This the text book case of inflation.

randomopining 5y ago

But don't most people just get fixed rates?

runnerup 5y ago

Rents going up (faster than usual) is nearly a per se inflationary environment for most Americans due to rent being a high % of income. You're arguing that would happen, but you'd label it a deflationary environment?