If you look at California on a county-by-county basis the restrictions definitely did halve the death rate (and beyond). The counties in California that behaved

If you look at California on a county-by-county basis the restrictions definitely did halve the death rate (and beyond). The counties in California that behaved more like Florida were rewarded with a great deal more death. San Francisco, which had not only tough restrictions but high compliance, had the lowest Covid-19 death rate of any metro in the country.