4 ms·
I would like to see SpaceX outline a roadmap according to each Mars transfer window, currently don't see it[1]: 2022/08/07 - Assume no transit 2024/09/26 - Fi
by gooseus 5y ago
I would like to see SpaceX outline a roadmap according to each Mars transfer window, currently don't see it[1]:
2022/08/07 - Assume no transit
2024/09/26 - First uncrewed launch (X tons of supply)
2026/11/15 - Second uncrewed launch (X2 tons of supply)
2029/01/03 - Third uncrewed launch (X3 tons of supply)
2031/02/22 - First crewed launch (X4 tons of supply, Y tons of people)
2033/04/11 - Second crewed launch (X5 tons of supply, Y2 tons of people)
2035/05/30 - etc...
...
[2]
This way we can compare progress and keep pushing the schedule out as each transfer is missed to give a more realistic sense for what we're trying to do here.
My sense is that if people would really to dig into the numbers (and I'm sure someone has) to calculate out the tonnage and delta-v required and how that translates to resources (money, energy, humans) over time (esp considering regulations and safety factors) then I think we would get a more realistic sense of we're trying to do here and realize how insane it is to think we'd have anything resembling a "colony" by 2050 (14 transfer windows).
A 2050 Moon colony is a far more realistic prediction, though also somewhat far fetched unless we've solved the problem of economic and political instability.
[1] https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/mars/ https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/mars/
[2] http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm