I don't think you're wrong but I don't think you're right. Housing starts aren't necessarily responding to demand, because yeah, nobody wants to over-build and

I don't think you're wrong but I don't think you're right. Housing starts aren't necessarily responding to demand, because yeah, nobody wants to over-build and contribute to a default. Plus there are other factors that impact housing starts in most high-cost areas (i.e. availability of land to build on.) I don't see a pop, yet I'm not certain prices will soar. People will typically shop based on 'what they can afford' and that usually means monthly payment; as rates went low, it was easier to bump up the ask price; the best way to put it is, if rates drop from 4% to 3%, you can finance around 10% more money over 30y with the same overall monthly payment. I do think there might be some 'bumps' in the road, but ironically, many of the people 'waiting' will probably end up pulling us out of the bumps (or, maybe, causing another surge.) I think overall the most likely scenario is we'll see some periods of paused growth or slight decline. Worth throwing out there, at least in US the housing market typically cools down a bit over the winter, so take any news of decreases in volume with a grain of salt.