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> The popular trend right now is to speculate a housing collapse. Price action is sentiment. Words are hot air. People are NOT speculating on a housing collaps

> The popular trend right now is to speculate a housing collapse. Price action is sentiment. Words are hot air. People are NOT speculating on a housing collapse. Exactly the opposite.

mywittyname 5y ago
I disagree. Prices demonstrate the attitudes of people who are buying houses. I'm concerned with the attitudes of people who are not buying houses. Why aren't they buying houses? Because they think the are going to fall in the near future. Why do I think that? Because this is a popular sentiment expressed by normal people on social media. Yes, it's wholly unscientific of me to use Reddit and Facebook as a barometer of society, but I'm not a professional economist, just another rando on the internet making bad predictions.
- throwawaygh 5y ago
  > I'm concerned with the attitudes of people who are not buying houses. That's fair. > Why aren't they buying houses? I think a lot of people are buying. > Because they think the are going to fall in the near future. One major reason people with massive hoards of cash aren't buy is uncertainty around WFH. "Where to buy? Depends. Let's see how this whole return to office thing goes..." > Yes, it's wholly unscientific of me to use Reddit and Facebook as a barometer of society, but I'm not a professional economist, just another rando on the internet making bad predictions. Aren't we all :)
- oblio 5y ago
  It depends on the place, but as a random data point, in a very hot market, Romania, I have a few separate data points of people with means to buy that are holding off for exactly the reason you mention.
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- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  OK, but the number of people who are buying houses is high enough to drive the prices into the stratosphere. If the non-buyers were trying to buy, prices would be even higher. So I'm not sure that you can use the existence of non-buyers to say that there's fear of a collapse. There's less fear than normal right now, as measured by what the market is doing.
  - nitrogen 5y ago
    There's less fear than normal right now, as measured by what the market is doing. How broad is the market relative to society? Could say 3% of people investing tons of money, while 97% are not, create the same result we are seeing today?
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      Yes, that's possible. I do not have the data to either confirm or disprove it.
- DSMan195276 5y ago
  > Why aren't they buying houses? My experience is that there are a lot of people looking to buy a house, there's just no houses to buy. I bought a house earlier in the year and put an offer in the day it went on the market, and I was still only one of several offers they got that day. I also have a friend who's looking at houses right now and it seems to be basically the same, houses are getting multiple offers and selling within a few days of going on the market, and anything that doesn't sell that fast isn't worth buying. The good question is probably "Why aren't people selling?", but I'm not sure that's actually the issue. Google suggests at least as many homes will sell this year as last year, which leads me to believe there must be more buyers than normal.
  - throwawaygh 5y ago
    > there must be more buyers than normal. Petite investors. I saw somewhere on another thread speculation that a crash could come from prospective land lords not being able to make their properties affordable. That seems possible.
    - DSMan195276 5y ago
      > Petite investors Is there a reason to assume there are more people attempting this than normal? I would think this is the worst time to attempt that since the prices are so high. You may very well be right, but it feels like we're going full circle since presumably those 'investors' think the prices are going to continue to go up or else they wouldn't be buying...
      - throwawaygh 5y ago
        I wish there were better data. All I can offer is anecdote. Oh, another important point: they aren't necessarily buying investment properties! They might be buying their padnemic/wfh home and then not selling their already paid off starter home/condo
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throwoutway 5y ago
Two Anecdotes: I have a friend who recently sold his house because he expects a collapse (sell high, buy low). I am waiting to buy a house because I also expect it to collapse. One is active, the other passive

> The popular trend right now is to speculate a housing collapse. Price action is sentiment. Words are hot air. People are NOT speculating on a housing collapse. Exactly the opposite.

mywittyname 5y ago

I disagree. Prices demonstrate the attitudes of people who are buying houses. I'm concerned with the attitudes of people who are not buying houses. Why aren't they buying houses? Because they think the are going to fall in the near future. Why do I think that? Because this is a popular sentiment expressed by normal people on social media. Yes, it's wholly unscientific of me to use Reddit and Facebook as a barometer of society, but I'm not a professional economist, just another rando on the internet making bad predictions.

throwawaygh 5y ago
> I'm concerned with the attitudes of people who are not buying houses. That's fair. > Why aren't they buying houses? I think a lot of people are buying. > Because they think the are going to fall in the near future. One major reason people with massive hoards of cash aren't buy is uncertainty around WFH. "Where to buy? Depends. Let's see how this whole return to office thing goes..." > Yes, it's wholly unscientific of me to use Reddit and Facebook as a barometer of society, but I'm not a professional economist, just another rando on the internet making bad predictions. Aren't we all :)
oblio 5y ago
It depends on the place, but as a random data point, in a very hot market, Romania, I have a few separate data points of people with means to buy that are holding off for exactly the reason you mention.
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AnimalMuppet 5y ago
OK, but the number of people who are buying houses is high enough to drive the prices into the stratosphere. If the non-buyers were trying to buy, prices would be even higher. So I'm not sure that you can use the existence of non-buyers to say that there's fear of a collapse. There's less fear than normal right now, as measured by what the market is doing.
- nitrogen 5y ago
  There's less fear than normal right now, as measured by what the market is doing. How broad is the market relative to society? Could say 3% of people investing tons of money, while 97% are not, create the same result we are seeing today?
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    Yes, that's possible. I do not have the data to either confirm or disprove it.
DSMan195276 5y ago
> Why aren't they buying houses? My experience is that there are a lot of people looking to buy a house, there's just no houses to buy. I bought a house earlier in the year and put an offer in the day it went on the market, and I was still only one of several offers they got that day. I also have a friend who's looking at houses right now and it seems to be basically the same, houses are getting multiple offers and selling within a few days of going on the market, and anything that doesn't sell that fast isn't worth buying. The good question is probably "Why aren't people selling?", but I'm not sure that's actually the issue. Google suggests at least as many homes will sell this year as last year, which leads me to believe there must be more buyers than normal.
- throwawaygh 5y ago
  > there must be more buyers than normal. Petite investors. I saw somewhere on another thread speculation that a crash could come from prospective land lords not being able to make their properties affordable. That seems possible.
  - DSMan195276 5y ago
    > Petite investors Is there a reason to assume there are more people attempting this than normal? I would think this is the worst time to attempt that since the prices are so high. You may very well be right, but it feels like we're going full circle since presumably those 'investors' think the prices are going to continue to go up or else they wouldn't be buying...
    - throwawaygh 5y ago
      I wish there were better data. All I can offer is anecdote. Oh, another important point: they aren't necessarily buying investment properties! They might be buying their padnemic/wfh home and then not selling their already paid off starter home/condo
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throwoutway 5y ago

Two Anecdotes: I have a friend who recently sold his house because he expects a collapse (sell high, buy low). I am waiting to buy a house because I also expect it to collapse. One is active, the other passive