23 ms·

Deciding to culture the samples, versus just destroying them without analysis, must be accompanied by an interesting risk/benefit analysis.

lazide 5y ago
If you’re trying to decide how big a risk it is that there are other vials out there, definitely. Especially since we’ve stopped wide spread vaccination as it’s considered eradicated. If some gov’t lab deep in Siberia has some samples - how big a problem would i be? actually?
- killjoywashere 5y ago
  Spritz it on some freshly laundered towels in a 5-star hotel (lots of international travelers) and you have a hot mess fast. Same thing in a Motel 6, you get longer dwell the in the first country before it spreads overseas.
  - lazide 5y ago
    That was the 80’s and 90’s ‘wake up in a cold sweat’ nightmare, when one wasn’t having it about nukes, the Cold War, and MAD anyway. One can hope that anyone with the resources and intelligence to pull that off, would 1) have something better and more useful to do with their lives, and 2) would have someone they care about somewhere and realize it would almost certainly blow back on them too. Definitely not guaranteed, but so far seems to be panning out. Let’s hope it stays that way.
    - jacobr1 5y ago
      The scarier thought is some kind of gene-targeted virus that avoids the blowback
      - K0balt 5y ago
        I don’t think that people understand how relatively practical this is, and it wouldn’t even have to be a dramatically or overtly “bad” virus to have very useful economic effects. Just a virus that dramatically increases the chance of cancer, or screws with nuerons low key causing early onset dementia after years, or whatever. The incentives that support this type of research will be (or are) too high to ignore.
    - a2tech 5y ago
      I've always thought the smart move would be a first strike with nukes followed up with aerial application of weaponized smallpox over non-nuked areas. The nukes would slow down and hamstring efforts at containment and let the biological agents get a good foothold.
      - dTal 5y ago
        For months, almost the entire Western world just watched slackjawed while Covid spread outward from China - presumably hoping it would just go away. I wouldn't worry too much about hamstringing containment efforts.
        jacobr1 5y ago
        Wasn't that because the virus has hit some kind of local maxima of morbidity and human-fear? If it was some kind "new ebola," I could imagine a much more aggressive response, with much less political polarization.
        ricardobayes 5y ago
        Can't blame them (us) too much. It was unprecedented, and all previous dangerous fledgling pandemics in the past 10 years did just stop in time somehow. H1N1, MERS, SARS, Ebola etc.
- krisoft 5y ago
  > If some gov’t lab deep in Siberia has some samples That's not an if. We know that the Vector Institute has smallpox samples and they are headquartered in Siberia. let's use this source maybe: https://slate.com/technology/2014/07/vector-institute-in-novosibirsk-siberia-where-russia-stores-its-smallpox.html https://slate.com/technology/2014/07/vector-institute-in-nov... or maybe this one: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/17/blast-sparks-fire-at-russian-laboratory-housing-smallpox-virus https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/17/blast-sparks-f... It's really not a secret, and definitely not an "if"
  - tibbydudeza 5y ago
    It is also pretty secure place and there is a detachment of the Russian Army nearby just in case.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
morpheuskafka 5y ago
They were transported to the existing, single approved location for processing these samples before being cultured. So the risk may not have been any more than existing research at that facility.
- ajsnigrutin 5y ago
  I was always under the impressions, that they keep the samples frozen in some big "freezer", and that they don't poke them around and "play" with them... so opening an unknown vial of an unknown sample of possibly smallpox, having the sample analyzed, and all the procedures needed for that, seem (to me) more risky than just keeping the freezer running.
  - phendrenad2 5y ago
    People make mistakes under pressure. So it's a good idea to induce limited pressure from time to time. Having to go through the proper preparations to analyze these samples was probably a valuable and rare training opportunity.
  - WastingMyTime89 5y ago
    Analysing unknown samples is part of the mission of these facilities, think about studying a new pathogen from human or animal samples for example. It’s fairly routine for them. They have the equipments and know how to do it safely. In this case, I think it was done to assess the risk of this kind of discovery in the future. If these samples had failed to be viable that would have been a huge relief for everyone.
tomjen3 5y ago
Honestly I am more concerned with the transport. If I had found the samples I would consider burning down the lab. Sorry, but the end of Smallpox is one of the greatest medical success stories ever. I am not going to be the one who reopens that particular Pandoras box.
- nicoburns 5y ago
  I suspect transporting sealed samples intact is much safer than burning down the lab and hoping they get anihilated.
  - elzbardico 5y ago
    Nuke'em! Nuke'em from orbit! it's the only way to be sure.
    - p1mrx 5y ago
      Nuking from orbit works better if you're in orbit.
      - elzbardico 5y ago
        a matter of personal taste, Sir.
        NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
        Fire on position!
- jopsen 5y ago
  Don't we have vaccines? I mean sure an outbreak would be pretty horrific. But once the pictures start circulating, I suspect vaccine hesitation would evaporate pretty quickly. Yes, yes, we should go far to avoid an outbreak, but would it really be so world ending? Wouldn't we just contain it, vaccinate widely and be done with it?

lazide 5y ago

If you’re trying to decide how big a risk it is that there are other vials out there, definitely. Especially since we’ve stopped wide spread vaccination as it’s considered eradicated. If some gov’t lab deep in Siberia has some samples - how big a problem would i be? actually?

killjoywashere 5y ago
Spritz it on some freshly laundered towels in a 5-star hotel (lots of international travelers) and you have a hot mess fast. Same thing in a Motel 6, you get longer dwell the in the first country before it spreads overseas.
- lazide 5y ago
  That was the 80’s and 90’s ‘wake up in a cold sweat’ nightmare, when one wasn’t having it about nukes, the Cold War, and MAD anyway. One can hope that anyone with the resources and intelligence to pull that off, would 1) have something better and more useful to do with their lives, and 2) would have someone they care about somewhere and realize it would almost certainly blow back on them too. Definitely not guaranteed, but so far seems to be panning out. Let’s hope it stays that way.
  - jacobr1 5y ago
    The scarier thought is some kind of gene-targeted virus that avoids the blowback
    - K0balt 5y ago
      I don’t think that people understand how relatively practical this is, and it wouldn’t even have to be a dramatically or overtly “bad” virus to have very useful economic effects. Just a virus that dramatically increases the chance of cancer, or screws with nuerons low key causing early onset dementia after years, or whatever. The incentives that support this type of research will be (or are) too high to ignore.
  - a2tech 5y ago
    I've always thought the smart move would be a first strike with nukes followed up with aerial application of weaponized smallpox over non-nuked areas. The nukes would slow down and hamstring efforts at containment and let the biological agents get a good foothold.
    - dTal 5y ago
      For months, almost the entire Western world just watched slackjawed while Covid spread outward from China - presumably hoping it would just go away. I wouldn't worry too much about hamstringing containment efforts.
      - jacobr1 5y ago
        Wasn't that because the virus has hit some kind of local maxima of morbidity and human-fear? If it was some kind "new ebola," I could imagine a much more aggressive response, with much less political polarization.
      - ricardobayes 5y ago
        Can't blame them (us) too much. It was unprecedented, and all previous dangerous fledgling pandemics in the past 10 years did just stop in time somehow. H1N1, MERS, SARS, Ebola etc.
krisoft 5y ago
> If some gov’t lab deep in Siberia has some samples That's not an if. We know that the Vector Institute has smallpox samples and they are headquartered in Siberia. let's use this source maybe: https://slate.com/technology/2014/07/vector-institute-in-novosibirsk-siberia-where-russia-stores-its-smallpox.html https://slate.com/technology/2014/07/vector-institute-in-nov... or maybe this one: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/17/blast-sparks-fire-at-russian-laboratory-housing-smallpox-virus https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/17/blast-sparks-f... It's really not a secret, and definitely not an "if"
- tibbydudeza 5y ago
  It is also pretty secure place and there is a detachment of the Russian Army nearby just in case.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

morpheuskafka 5y ago

They were transported to the existing, single approved location for processing these samples before being cultured. So the risk may not have been any more than existing research at that facility.

ajsnigrutin 5y ago
I was always under the impressions, that they keep the samples frozen in some big "freezer", and that they don't poke them around and "play" with them... so opening an unknown vial of an unknown sample of possibly smallpox, having the sample analyzed, and all the procedures needed for that, seem (to me) more risky than just keeping the freezer running.
- phendrenad2 5y ago
  People make mistakes under pressure. So it's a good idea to induce limited pressure from time to time. Having to go through the proper preparations to analyze these samples was probably a valuable and rare training opportunity.
- WastingMyTime89 5y ago
  Analysing unknown samples is part of the mission of these facilities, think about studying a new pathogen from human or animal samples for example. It’s fairly routine for them. They have the equipments and know how to do it safely. In this case, I think it was done to assess the risk of this kind of discovery in the future. If these samples had failed to be viable that would have been a huge relief for everyone.

tomjen3 5y ago

Honestly I am more concerned with the transport. If I had found the samples I would consider burning down the lab. Sorry, but the end of Smallpox is one of the greatest medical success stories ever. I am not going to be the one who reopens that particular Pandoras box.

nicoburns 5y ago
I suspect transporting sealed samples intact is much safer than burning down the lab and hoping they get anihilated.
- elzbardico 5y ago
  Nuke'em! Nuke'em from orbit! it's the only way to be sure.
  - p1mrx 5y ago
    Nuking from orbit works better if you're in orbit.
    - elzbardico 5y ago
      a matter of personal taste, Sir.
      - NaturalPhallacy 5y ago
        Fire on position!
jopsen 5y ago
Don't we have vaccines? I mean sure an outbreak would be pretty horrific. But once the pictures start circulating, I suspect vaccine hesitation would evaporate pretty quickly. Yes, yes, we should go far to avoid an outbreak, but would it really be so world ending? Wouldn't we just contain it, vaccinate widely and be done with it?