26 ms·

Full autonomy is not possible with the current technology [1]. Unless Apple is sitting on some breakthrough in machine learning this is purely marketing materia

Full autonomy is not possible with the current technology [1]. Unless Apple is sitting on some breakthrough in machine learning this is purely marketing material. 1: https://rodneybrooks.com/predictions-scorecard-2021-january-01/ https://rodneybrooks.com/predictions-scorecard-2021-january-...

alphabetting 5y ago
they're almost certainly aiming for level 4 autonomy which exists today
kgin 5y ago
We’ll be riding around in no-steering-wheel level 4 cars (with remote planning assistance when things get out of bounds) very soon. Over time, those cars will need to phone home less and less. Eventually there will be an article about the “last remote planning assistance center” and how no vehicle has phoned home for almost a year, but they keep it running because no one can be 100% sure that it won’t ever be necessary. We won’t even know when we hit level 5 and by the time we do, nobody will care.
- holonomically 5y ago
  That's very optimistic.
  - kgin 5y ago
    Which parts seem least likely?
    - holonomically 5y ago
      > We’ll be riding around in no-steering-wheel level 4 cars (with remote planning assistance when things get out of bounds) very soon.
      - kgin 5y ago
        Waymo and Cruise will start rolling out commercial service next year in a few cities
        holonomically 5y ago
        They will have drivers and steering wheels.
        kgin 5y ago
        They’re already running without drivers. Cruise’s purpose-built vehicle (which starts service in 2023) doesn’t even have a steering wheel. https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/07/cruise-plans-to-have-tens-of-thousands-of-origin-avs-on-roads-in-coming-years/ https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/07/cruise-plans-to-have-tens-...
        holonomically 5y ago
        > In August, Waymo began its Trusted Tester program in the city, as well, allowing San Franciscans to hail one of its autonomous, electric Jaguar I-Pace vehicles, with a safety driver on board, for free rides. There is plenty of time between now and 2023 and by then the safety record of these cars will not be good enough for regulators to allow fully driverless function. It's not good even now. Teslas constantly make all sorts of mistakes that force their drivers to take control. I doubt either Waymo or Cruise are further ahead than Tesla when it comes to the ML involved in making these things safe for the general public. Public roads are more adversarial than current ML models are capable of dealing with and this is before we even get to different kinds of low visibility weather conditions like rain and fog.
        kgin 5y ago
        Tesla and Waymo/Cruise are playing entirely different games. Tesla is trying to make a full level 5 using only vision. Waymo and Cruise are going to level 4 in HD mapped service areas using every possible sensor they can fit onto a car. I don’t know if you can say Waymo/Cruise are necessarily ahead in some absolute technological sense, but they’re definitely closer to achieving their own goals and likewise way closer to actually driving paying customers around in autonomous vehicles.

alphabetting 5y ago

they're almost certainly aiming for level 4 autonomy which exists today

kgin 5y ago

We’ll be riding around in no-steering-wheel level 4 cars (with remote planning assistance when things get out of bounds) very soon. Over time, those cars will need to phone home less and less. Eventually there will be an article about the “last remote planning assistance center” and how no vehicle has phoned home for almost a year, but they keep it running because no one can be 100% sure that it won’t ever be necessary. We won’t even know when we hit level 5 and by the time we do, nobody will care.

holonomically 5y ago
That's very optimistic.
- kgin 5y ago
  Which parts seem least likely?
  - holonomically 5y ago
    > We’ll be riding around in no-steering-wheel level 4 cars (with remote planning assistance when things get out of bounds) very soon.
    - kgin 5y ago
      Waymo and Cruise will start rolling out commercial service next year in a few cities
      - holonomically 5y ago
        They will have drivers and steering wheels.
        kgin 5y ago
        They’re already running without drivers. Cruise’s purpose-built vehicle (which starts service in 2023) doesn’t even have a steering wheel. https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/07/cruise-plans-to-have-tens-of-thousands-of-origin-avs-on-roads-in-coming-years/ https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/07/cruise-plans-to-have-tens-...
        holonomically 5y ago
        > In August, Waymo began its Trusted Tester program in the city, as well, allowing San Franciscans to hail one of its autonomous, electric Jaguar I-Pace vehicles, with a safety driver on board, for free rides. There is plenty of time between now and 2023 and by then the safety record of these cars will not be good enough for regulators to allow fully driverless function. It's not good even now. Teslas constantly make all sorts of mistakes that force their drivers to take control. I doubt either Waymo or Cruise are further ahead than Tesla when it comes to the ML involved in making these things safe for the general public. Public roads are more adversarial than current ML models are capable of dealing with and this is before we even get to different kinds of low visibility weather conditions like rain and fog.
        kgin 5y ago
        Tesla and Waymo/Cruise are playing entirely different games. Tesla is trying to make a full level 5 using only vision. Waymo and Cruise are going to level 4 in HD mapped service areas using every possible sensor they can fit onto a car. I don’t know if you can say Waymo/Cruise are necessarily ahead in some absolute technological sense, but they’re definitely closer to achieving their own goals and likewise way closer to actually driving paying customers around in autonomous vehicles.