4 ms·

You're right, the vaccines don't have 100% efficacy. However, they are the only way out of the pandemic (so that we can safely transition to an endemic state, m

You're right, the vaccines don't have 100% efficacy. However, they are the only way out of the pandemic (so that we can safely transition to an endemic state, much like the flu--still annoying and sometimes lethal, but not mandating the current constraints). There are quite a few people who aren't getting vaccinated because they have doubts AND because they feel healthy and do not think they are at risk of a severe course of COVID-19 infection. If their physician could tell them with confidence that the virus is very likely dangerous to them, that would maybe push them to getting vaccinated despite their doubts. This stuff is hard. There are people that simply won't be convinced, no matter what. But anything to help sway the more reasonable "skeptics" out there is a win, I think.

angelzen 5y ago
I wonder what the exit condition for the pandemic mode is, or even how we define "out of the pandemic". Vaccines have delivered a great success in blunting the sharp edge. Compare cases vs. deaths. I picked 4 countries with varied vaccination levels: Singapore (>85%), Austria (>60%), Israel (>60%) and Romania (>35%). Case spikes occur regardless of vaccination levels, death spikes are near extinct in areas with high vaccination. Yet there are still broad restrictions: mask mandates, social distancing, wfh, vaccine passports, partial lockdowns. Caveat: there is a lot more to this data than meets the eye, but public health policies appear to be driven by broad numbers, so for the purpose of the "how does the pandemic mode end" conversation these curves are a reasonable starting point. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Cases+and+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=SGP~ISR~ROU~AUT https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

angelzen 5y ago

I wonder what the exit condition for the pandemic mode is, or even how we define "out of the pandemic". Vaccines have delivered a great success in blunting the sharp edge. Compare cases vs. deaths. I picked 4 countries with varied vaccination levels: Singapore (>85%), Austria (>60%), Israel (>60%) and Romania (>35%). Case spikes occur regardless of vaccination levels, death spikes are near extinct in areas with high vaccination. Yet there are still broad restrictions: mask mandates, social distancing, wfh, vaccine passports, partial lockdowns. Caveat: there is a lot more to this data than meets the eye, but public health policies appear to be driven by broad numbers, so for the purpose of the "how does the pandemic mode end" conversation these curves are a reasonable starting point. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Cases+and+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=SGP~ISR~ROU~AUT https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...