6 ms·
How would you move 211 Tons of Gold?
- egiva 15y agoFascinating! I certainly like the idea of "crowdsourcing" the gold delivery by just opening up a window in the Bank of Venezuela in Caracas, and asking that people turn in gold for a modest bounty (2%). That might be over-estimating the amount of gold that people in South America have on hand, but it's certainly creative!
- dfc 15y agoThe first time I read this suggestion I thought it would be an absolute nightmare dealing with impurities. When I reread it I realized he suggested standard gold bars. But this seems even more unrealistic. I either did the math wrong or the crowdsourcing idea is just ludicrous: Standard bar = 400 troy ounces Price per troy ounce = $1700 400 * $1700 = $680,000.00 How many people are going to have a gold bar worth $680k lying around in Venezuela?
- darklajid 15y agoMaybe you have enough money to buy one? The trip cost is nothing to worry about. If you just need to put this thing in your baggage and get 2% on top on the other side, don't you think that it would be a) interesting. exciting. fun. (yeah, got the money) b) lucrative, if it works out (and what are the risks?)
- dfc 15y agoIs it really "Crowd-sourcing" when you are drawing from such a small pool of people?
- Bud 15y agoI think the point is that if you're paying a 2% premium, that being $13,600 in this case, that makes it worth it to GO to Venezuela and take the gold there, thus getting a free vacation.
- dfc 15y agoA free vacation and a free ulcer from dealing with the stress of transporting 680k worth of gold. Whatever you do to mitigate the stress is going to cut into your vacation money.
- RodgerTheGreat 15y agoBe honest- if you had $680,000, would you be willing to risk it for an additional $14,000?
- pavel_lishin 15y agoDepends on the level of risk. Couldn't I just Fedex the gold - insured for its value, of course - to a confederate in Venezuela, and split the 2% commission? Assuming you can trust your partner, the worst case scenario is the gold getting lost (or "lost") in the mail, and having to wait for the insurance payout.
- ianferrel 15y agoI'm willing to bet that Fedex will not insure a small package for $680k for anywhere near 2% of the cost.
- lojack 15y agoIf my expected value after the trade is higher than $680,000 plus some markup for my time, then yes, I would be willing to risk it.
- trafficlight 15y agoThere's a great passage in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon about the problems of moving pallets of gold that are sitting undefended in the middle of the jungle.
- dfc 15y agoI dont remember the passage. Care to elaborate or give a page reference?
- shabble 15y agoChapter 59, towards the end, there's a Q&A formatted section. Snippet is http://pastebin.com/xNDkDNe8 http://pastebin.com/xNDkDNe8 (hopefully short enough to be fair use)
- wmf 15y agoChapter XLI, near p. 510. http://books.google.com/books?id=FUha9wJrSXMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=cryptonomicon&hl=en&src=bmrr&ei=KaVWTqy0BuStsAK_9IDGDA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=book-preview-link&resnum=1&ved=0CD0QuwUwAA#v=snippet&q=jungle%20gold&f=false http://books.google.com/books?id=FUha9wJrSXMC&printsec=f...
- tptacek 15y agoEffectively a duplicate of: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2915835 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2915835
- idlewords 15y agoThis discussion reminded me of a wonderful blog comment about accidentally flushing over a hundred pounds of dissolved gold: http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2007/02/01/how_not_to_do_it_ruining_stuff.php#418204 http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2007/02/01/how_not_to_d... The whole thread is awesome.
- dotBen 15y agoI don't get how the crowd-source option is at all attractive, though perhaps I don't understand enough about how the gold markets work. If I was physically based in Venezuela and owned X gold bars in my physical possession, why would the same amount of gold bars + 2%, in a foreign distant country I have no connection with, be preferable? With gold in my possession I have instant liquidity. Gold in some foreign country, and in an inaccessible vault to boot, gives me limited liquidity. Even if gold is a long-term investment, I still want ease of liquidity at the appropriate time. Finally, presumably there are fees associated storing your gold in the Bank of England's vault? Well, as a British citizen I certainly hope so as I'm not able to store my (theoretical) gold there. EDIT: So one of the child comments is implying that the way the gold in being held at the Bank of England means that it is available to be traded on the London Gold Exchange. I had originally interpreted from the article that the gold was simply being held in a vault, ie with limited access and availability.
- wtn 15y agoGo read Felix Salmon's article again and read some Wikipedia articles about how commodity exchanges work. Gold in your possession is less liquid than gold in an exchange approved vault in Manhattan or London…
- dotBen 15y agoGold in your possession is less liquid than gold in an exchange approved vault in Manhattan or London… Um, so why does Hugo Chávez want the gold in his possession then?
- deleted 15y ago[deleted]
- tokenadult 15y agotptacek has already noted the earlier HN discussion of the problem, kindly providing a link to the thread. Because there was discussion in that thread about the price of gold, relative to the United States dollar, I'll just mention that the latest news is that gold can go down as well as up in price relative to the dollar. http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2011/08/25/gold-points-sharply-down-as-margin-hikes-loom-silver-etfs-pare-earlier-losses/?mod=BOLBlog http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2011/08/25/gold-points... http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110825-710588.html http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110825-710588.html The general advice on investing still stands: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," so no investment, however reasonable, is 100 percent sure to be profitable.