4 ms·

As is never highlighted, especially in media, is that it's relative risk reduction. Going by their study (and simplifying for argument's sake), there were 10k

As is never highlighted, especially in media, is that it's relative risk reduction. Going by their study (and simplifying for argument's sake), there were 10k strokes out of 365k subjects, so <3% risk. A 30% risk reduction means now you're at 2% risk, so figure out whether that's worth adding coffee and tea for.

rmbyrro 5y ago
On an individual level, it might be the difference between having dementia/stroke or not. The decrease from coffee/tea might make you cross the line back into healthy state, perhaps? I don't usually take conclusions from single studies like this, though. It's too easy to fool ourselves with statistics.
- headsoup 5y ago
  Of course, but there are probably thousands of other decisions we make through life that could increase or decrease our chance 1%. Yeah, statistics and graphs can be a special type of evil
ThunderSizzle 5y ago
A <1% death rate was enough to cause the lockdowns in 2020. If the media ran this endlessly, saying you'll have 30% less chance of stroke or dementia if you drink coffee and tea, people would probably panic on that too.
- rebuilder 5y ago
  This study was conducted over 10+ years, the COVID numbers are probably per case, or possibly annualised.
- icoder 5y ago
  Not sure about your country, but here the main problem was (and is again) the risk of an overrun health care system.
  - dahfizz 5y ago
    A large uptick in strokes would cause a similar issue, no? You can put that spin on anything. DISCLAIMER: I am not downplaying the severity of Covid. My words mean exactly what they say.
    - sokoloff 5y ago
      That seems to depend on the typical duration of stay of a stroke patient in the various departments (emergency, ICU, general in-patient). I'm not familiar with stroke treatment, but from anecdotal exposure in my extended family's experience, they did not result in extended ICU stays.
    - icoder 5y ago
      A large enough uptick in strokes at some point will, yes, but I don't think coffee/tea consumption will have that effect, plus our current consumption clearly _doesn't_, while Covid clearly _does_. (At least where I live, ICU's were previously not overrun due to anything) It's not a spin, it's just the daily struggle of the health care system right now. I see no other solution but to take that seriously. That doesn't mean we should take this study as serious just because it discusses something that may lead to something that, by itself, with a theoretical (large enough) uptick would overrun the system too.
    - saltcured 5y ago
      Strokes are not contagious and do not spread exponentially through a population, overwhelming the health care system all at once. Things like smoking and lung cancer, or lifestyle related metabolic disorders might cause a lot of health care cost down the road, but they don't cause highly synchronized hospitalization throughout the population. Some hypothetical, stroke-causing, meme-like behavior which can spread rapidly would have to be quite insidious to spread as effectively as COVID-19, cause a temporally correlated medical event, and not be self-limiting. The closest I can think of, off hand, are spikes in drug overdoses or things like suicide clusters. But those are examples are self-limiting, in that most people seem to recognize that they do not want to have that outcome.
- dtech 5y ago
  That <1% death rate is only with every serious infected getting adequate care. If the disease went further out of control and intensive-care, oxygen etc. was no longer available it would be much higher.
  - starwind 5y ago
    and early on it looked like 6% of people who showed COVID symptoms died. We didn't know what the death rate was early on
pwagland 5y ago
Right, but the point that parent was making is that rather than just not implicating tea/coffee in causing these, the study shows that it reduces the chance of these. That it's a relative risk reduction is not particularly relevant to that. That said, I do agree that changes in relative risk are confusing and/or misleading to many people. A more interesting way of presenting this data, IMO, is the "number needed to treat", that is in order to reduce 1 stroke from occurring, ie, roughly 120 people need to drink 2 cups of coffee/tea per day to reduce 1 stroke, based on the numbers given here. This is obviously a lot more than the naive "30% means roughly 1 in 3 would see improvement" interpretation that the headline number pushes you towards.
- falcolas 5y ago
  Having seen how dementia and strokes affect people, and their families, I’ll absolutely take a 1% reduction.

rmbyrro 5y ago

On an individual level, it might be the difference between having dementia/stroke or not. The decrease from coffee/tea might make you cross the line back into healthy state, perhaps? I don't usually take conclusions from single studies like this, though. It's too easy to fool ourselves with statistics.

headsoup 5y ago
Of course, but there are probably thousands of other decisions we make through life that could increase or decrease our chance 1%. Yeah, statistics and graphs can be a special type of evil

ThunderSizzle 5y ago

A <1% death rate was enough to cause the lockdowns in 2020. If the media ran this endlessly, saying you'll have 30% less chance of stroke or dementia if you drink coffee and tea, people would probably panic on that too.

rebuilder 5y ago
This study was conducted over 10+ years, the COVID numbers are probably per case, or possibly annualised.
icoder 5y ago
Not sure about your country, but here the main problem was (and is again) the risk of an overrun health care system.
- dahfizz 5y ago
  A large uptick in strokes would cause a similar issue, no? You can put that spin on anything. DISCLAIMER: I am not downplaying the severity of Covid. My words mean exactly what they say.
  - sokoloff 5y ago
    That seems to depend on the typical duration of stay of a stroke patient in the various departments (emergency, ICU, general in-patient). I'm not familiar with stroke treatment, but from anecdotal exposure in my extended family's experience, they did not result in extended ICU stays.
  - icoder 5y ago
    A large enough uptick in strokes at some point will, yes, but I don't think coffee/tea consumption will have that effect, plus our current consumption clearly _doesn't_, while Covid clearly _does_. (At least where I live, ICU's were previously not overrun due to anything) It's not a spin, it's just the daily struggle of the health care system right now. I see no other solution but to take that seriously. That doesn't mean we should take this study as serious just because it discusses something that may lead to something that, by itself, with a theoretical (large enough) uptick would overrun the system too.
  - saltcured 5y ago
    Strokes are not contagious and do not spread exponentially through a population, overwhelming the health care system all at once. Things like smoking and lung cancer, or lifestyle related metabolic disorders might cause a lot of health care cost down the road, but they don't cause highly synchronized hospitalization throughout the population. Some hypothetical, stroke-causing, meme-like behavior which can spread rapidly would have to be quite insidious to spread as effectively as COVID-19, cause a temporally correlated medical event, and not be self-limiting. The closest I can think of, off hand, are spikes in drug overdoses or things like suicide clusters. But those are examples are self-limiting, in that most people seem to recognize that they do not want to have that outcome.
dtech 5y ago
That <1% death rate is only with every serious infected getting adequate care. If the disease went further out of control and intensive-care, oxygen etc. was no longer available it would be much higher.
- starwind 5y ago
  and early on it looked like 6% of people who showed COVID symptoms died. We didn't know what the death rate was early on

pwagland 5y ago

Right, but the point that parent was making is that rather than just not implicating tea/coffee in causing these, the study shows that it reduces the chance of these. That it's a relative risk reduction is not particularly relevant to that. That said, I do agree that changes in relative risk are confusing and/or misleading to many people. A more interesting way of presenting this data, IMO, is the "number needed to treat", that is in order to reduce 1 stroke from occurring, ie, roughly 120 people need to drink 2 cups of coffee/tea per day to reduce 1 stroke, based on the numbers given here. This is obviously a lot more than the naive "30% means roughly 1 in 3 would see improvement" interpretation that the headline number pushes you towards.

falcolas 5y ago
Having seen how dementia and strokes affect people, and their families, I’ll absolutely take a 1% reduction.