3 ms·

I think you’re giving policy makers too much credit by saying they look at the data, but that’s an aside :). I’m not sure we even have to look at the data ours

by elhudy 5y ago

I think you’re giving policy makers too much credit by saying they look at the data, but that’s an aside :). I’m not sure we even have to look at the data ourselves to find my statement true, if we accept the following as facts: 1) Wages have largely remained stagnant in the past 10 years 2) Inflation has increased in the past 10 years 3) Housing and healthcare costs have increased in the past 10 years Thus, even if employment is exactly as it was ten years ago, it doesn’t seem meaningful in understanding economic health.

refurb 5y ago
You don't think policy makers look at the data? Have you looked at the data?
- elhudy 5y ago
  It was tongue in cheek
sokoloff 5y ago
Real wages* have been roughly flat for quite some time. That statement covers 1 and 2 above, yet people often include both as if the second one represented a new problem in light of the first. You’ve included a third statement which restates/clarifies a portion of #2. All of those statements are true, provided you’re talking about real wages, but then those are closer to 1.5 independent facts than 3.0. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/?amp=1 https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us...
- elhudy 5y ago
  You just cited a source from 2018. Are real wages still flat, right now in 2021, or are they down? Do you think wages hiked 6.2% with inflation over the past few months? BLS says real wages at -1.2% over the last year, and thats probably conservative. Combined with my third point it sounds a bit scary dont you think? https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm I could easily combine points 1 and 2 to your point but imo it makes more sense to separate because inflation and how we measure it is at the heart of the issue.
  - sokoloff 5y ago
    To separate them in a logical fashion, you need to talk about nominal wages in #1 which have experienced growth roughly in line with inflation. Then, introducing nominal inflation in #2 builds on #1. I cited a 2018 study because the time period in question was largely covered by it. I’m happy to review a 2021 study if you cite one.
    - elhudy 5y ago
      I updated my reply with data showing real wage drop, shortly after you responded. In addition, id like to add opinion that the current cpi does not accurately reflect healthcare costs, which are continuing to skyrocket unchecked [1]. Housing costs will also lag as is standard. so we might not see that effect entirely now but we will in the next year or two. I’m not sure where exactly the goalposts are in this conversation but as you can tell I’m extremely bullish on inflation and the wealth gaps between the poor and wealthy widening. I believe the government is past the point of no return on debt and will need to continue to print money indefinitely to stay caught up. If we were using 70s measures of inflation i suspect we would be hovering around 13%+. Peers who are experts and leaders in finance and economics are of the same opinion - and are currently making a killing off this money printing episode. I would love to hear more dissenting opinion though and am definitely open to it. [1]https://www.ncpssm.org/documents/social-security-policy-papers/the-cpi-e-a-better-option-for-calculating-social-security-colas/ https://www.ncpssm.org/documents/social-security-policy-pape...

by elhudy 5y ago

refurb 5y ago

You don't think policy makers look at the data? Have you looked at the data?

elhudy 5y ago
It was tongue in cheek

sokoloff 5y ago

Real wages* have been roughly flat for quite some time. That statement covers 1 and 2 above, yet people often include both as if the second one represented a new problem in light of the first. You’ve included a third statement which restates/clarifies a portion of #2. All of those statements are true, provided you’re talking about real wages, but then those are closer to 1.5 independent facts than 3.0. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/?amp=1 https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us...

elhudy 5y ago
You just cited a source from 2018. Are real wages still flat, right now in 2021, or are they down? Do you think wages hiked 6.2% with inflation over the past few months? BLS says real wages at -1.2% over the last year, and thats probably conservative. Combined with my third point it sounds a bit scary dont you think? https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm I could easily combine points 1 and 2 to your point but imo it makes more sense to separate because inflation and how we measure it is at the heart of the issue.
- sokoloff 5y ago
  To separate them in a logical fashion, you need to talk about nominal wages in #1 which have experienced growth roughly in line with inflation. Then, introducing nominal inflation in #2 builds on #1. I cited a 2018 study because the time period in question was largely covered by it. I’m happy to review a 2021 study if you cite one.
  - elhudy 5y ago
    I updated my reply with data showing real wage drop, shortly after you responded. In addition, id like to add opinion that the current cpi does not accurately reflect healthcare costs, which are continuing to skyrocket unchecked [1]. Housing costs will also lag as is standard. so we might not see that effect entirely now but we will in the next year or two. I’m not sure where exactly the goalposts are in this conversation but as you can tell I’m extremely bullish on inflation and the wealth gaps between the poor and wealthy widening. I believe the government is past the point of no return on debt and will need to continue to print money indefinitely to stay caught up. If we were using 70s measures of inflation i suspect we would be hovering around 13%+. Peers who are experts and leaders in finance and economics are of the same opinion - and are currently making a killing off this money printing episode. I would love to hear more dissenting opinion though and am definitely open to it. [1]https://www.ncpssm.org/documents/social-security-policy-papers/the-cpi-e-a-better-option-for-calculating-social-security-colas/ https://www.ncpssm.org/documents/social-security-policy-pape...