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This article is from October, but people have been looking at the most recent survey results form UMichigan, and found the details… interesting. Specifically th

This article is from October, but people have been looking at the most recent survey results form UMichigan, and found the details… interesting. Specifically that expectations are highly correlated with how people self-identified politically. For example, Republicans have worse sentiments about the economy now than they did in March 2009, when the unemployment rate was 8.7%: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE And the economy was losing 800K jobs per month: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=IXam https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=IXam The UMichigan folks call out this this partisan lens explicitly: * http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu And while (some) folks have negative view on the economy (depending on their political leanings), there is a general positive feeling on their personal finances: * https://www.langerresearch.com/category/cci/ https://www.langerresearch.com/category/cci/ And if people are worried about the economy like they say, you'd think they'd be saving. Yet US retail sales are up: > US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in 10 years. […] * https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1460632395086974981 https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/146063239508697498... * https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1460601503744466944 https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1460601503744466944

elhudy 5y ago
Are jobs and employment rates really what we should be using to measure the economic outlook? Some people would be better off unemployed on government help, than employed full time at minimum wage in a city where housing is unaffordable and inflation is at 5%. Additionally, increased spending can be a symptom of inflation as consumers rush to buy goods where prices lag.
- abfan1127 5y ago
  how is this statement remotely true? Now is government help better than min wage? housing is still unaffordable and inflation is still 5%. There is no wealth creation on government assistance. In fact, there is wealth destruction.
  - elhudy 5y ago
    I’m not saying that people being on government help is better for the economy than people working at minimum wage. I’m saying that maybe employment rates aren’t as relevant of a measure as they once were, because employment at min wage isn’t as useful to the individual as it was 10, 20 years ago.
    - refurb 5y ago
      I suggest you look at the employment data breakdown. The DOL goes into a lot of detail about what jobs are created, at what pay, etc.
      - elhudy 5y ago
        What do you believe the data will say about my statement? Will the data disprove it?
        refurb 5y ago
        The data will show that policy makers don't just look at the unemployment rate, they look at the underlying drivers. And it will also show very few people actually make minimum wage and most of them are young teenagers.
        elhudy 5y ago
        I think you’re giving policy makers too much credit by saying they look at the data, but that’s an aside :). I’m not sure we even have to look at the data ourselves to find my statement true, if we accept the following as facts: 1) Wages have largely remained stagnant in the past 10 years 2) Inflation has increased in the past 10 years 3) Housing and healthcare costs have increased in the past 10 years Thus, even if employment is exactly as it was ten years ago, it doesn’t seem meaningful in understanding economic health.
        refurb 5y ago
- pcwalton 5y ago
  It's easy to forget, but housing is affordable for most people in most parts of the US. Here on HN it seems otherwise because we disproportionately live in California and other expensive metropolitan areas along the coasts. Rising prices of gasoline are the most visible sign of inflation for ordinary US consumers.
  - elhudy 5y ago
    The issue i take with this is that we’re using measures to define economic well being where we use terms like “most” and then leave behind the other 49% of people, and tell em, “hey, the economy is cookin!” “In the nation as a whole, 70.3 percent of lowest-income households face severe housing cost burdens. ” [1] (2016) [1]https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/harvard_jchs_state_of_the_nations_housing_2017_chap1.pdf https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/ha...
    - kube-system 5y ago
      I'm surprised that nearly 30 percent of households earning under $15,000 a year don't face severe housing cost burdens. Although, do we expect that group of people to be able to easily afford housing in a good economy? I would guess that this group has a tough time affording housing in any economy.
      - elhudy 5y ago
        Yeah, agreed. I don’t know what the proper measure of a good economy is. I’m just critical that said measurement is “jobs”.
      - akiselev 5y ago
        How many of those households are in remote or dying communities like those in Appalachia built around long closed coal mines? 2000 hours a year at minimum wage is roughly that amount so I suspect much of that group is concentrated in areas where houses could literally be bought for a few thousand bucks and there really isn't any work - think Detroit at the end of the 2000s when people were ripping copper out of the walls. Depending on how they count households, a few people might also be providing for a large number of house holds, like in a trailer park. With social security/medicare/medicaid/disability, they might be relatively secure in their housing.
- throw0101a 5y ago
  > Are jobs and employment rates really what we should be using to measure the economic outlook? That was not the point I was trying to make. I'll try again: * Self-identified GOPers (supposedly) think it is worse now than when economy was tanking and hemorrhaging 800K jobs per month. What planet are they living on if they honestly think this is true?
  - HarryHirsch 5y ago
    There's a pandemic going on in Jesusland. No one is prepared to go out and spend under such conditions. Can't find fault with the reasoning.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - Nbox9 5y ago
    Inflation was under control in 2009. The reasons people are worried about today’s economy are very different than 2009.
    - throw0101a 5y ago
      Yeah, when an economy is losing 800K jobs per month inflation is usually not a problem, deflation is. In 2009 things went negative: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA Inflation is usually sign that the economy is running too hot. I think a lot of folks would say that's a 'nice problem' to have.
  - elhudy 5y ago
    Point taken, but i suppose i don’t see it as incredibly unreasonable. They think the outlook is worse now than when we were basically at rock bottom. March 2009 is about when i threw all my money into stocks and purchased a home. When you’re at rock bottom is when your expectations should actually be higher. When the economy is cooking and we have all these artificial props keeping us up with insane healthcare spending and inflation on the rise, is when I’m more likely to have lower outlook. Unless I’m mistaken it’s a measure of where you’re trending not where you are in a point in time.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
  <<Some people would be better off unemployed on government help, than employed full time at minimum wage in a city where housing is unaffordable and inflation is at 5%. I mean it is true. It is virtually impossible to categorize the statement as false. And yet it is wrong in the context of existing society without some additional qualifications.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
swiley 5y ago
When you and your friends get emails every day about how you're getting fired for not taking a drug that you're not going to take, you're going to have very little faith in the economy.
- gruez 5y ago
  Even if you're against vaccine mandates, that's closer to "little faith in government" than "little faith in economy".
  - sokoloff 5y ago
    The questions are usually formulated to address: 1. Respondents’ appraisal of current business conditions. 2. Respondents’ appraisal of current employment conditions. 3. Respondents’ expectations regarding business conditions six months hence. 4. Respondents’ expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence. 5. Respondents’ expectations regarding their total family income six months hence. Any respondent concerned with personal and widespread job losses from non-vaccination would likely score 4 and 5 low and that would show up in this type of survey.
- kevinh 5y ago
  After Trump was elected, economic optimism among Republicans went from 15% to 74%. Democrats economic optimism dropped by half. The main thing that matters for perception is the person in charge. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/optimism-on-economy-stocks-surges-since-trump-election-cnbc-survey.html https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/optimism-on-economy-stocks-s...
- KarlKemp 5y ago
  That’s because faith requires (some) thinking.
Digory 5y ago
> if people are worried about the economy like they say, you'd think they'd be saving. Not if the worry is inflation and supply chain instability. That pushes spending, not savings, forward.
- oceanghost 5y ago
  Yup. I've begun and mostly completed my xmas shopping (for fear of not being able to get anything), and accelerated some purchases I was putting off (new phone, new computer etc).
throw1010b 5y ago
Looking only at unemployment rate is missing half the story. * https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... * https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/14/u-s-labor-market-inches-back-from-the-covid-19-shock-but-recovery-is-far-from-complete/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/14/u-s-labor-m...
quinnjh 5y ago
I would assume theres a high correlation here (though complete conjecture) that GOP base may have fewer members who have graduated with non economically productive degrees and 10-200k of school debt. For every person that graduates shackled to their student debt, the fed has another willing tax-payer who appreciates high inflation. Similarly i would assume the upper percentiles in both parties are happy to see high inflation as it reduces the cost of your multiple million dollar debts. The people getting it the worst will be folks who work for a decent amount of money, have very little debt, and arent hedging / bitcoining their savings. Im assuming the fact that consumers arent saving has to do with them trying to avoid watching their savings shrink 6%

elhudy 5y ago

Are jobs and employment rates really what we should be using to measure the economic outlook? Some people would be better off unemployed on government help, than employed full time at minimum wage in a city where housing is unaffordable and inflation is at 5%. Additionally, increased spending can be a symptom of inflation as consumers rush to buy goods where prices lag.

abfan1127 5y ago
how is this statement remotely true? Now is government help better than min wage? housing is still unaffordable and inflation is still 5%. There is no wealth creation on government assistance. In fact, there is wealth destruction.
- elhudy 5y ago
  I’m not saying that people being on government help is better for the economy than people working at minimum wage. I’m saying that maybe employment rates aren’t as relevant of a measure as they once were, because employment at min wage isn’t as useful to the individual as it was 10, 20 years ago.
  - refurb 5y ago
    I suggest you look at the employment data breakdown. The DOL goes into a lot of detail about what jobs are created, at what pay, etc.
    - elhudy 5y ago
      What do you believe the data will say about my statement? Will the data disprove it?
      - refurb 5y ago
        The data will show that policy makers don't just look at the unemployment rate, they look at the underlying drivers. And it will also show very few people actually make minimum wage and most of them are young teenagers.
        elhudy 5y ago
        I think you’re giving policy makers too much credit by saying they look at the data, but that’s an aside :). I’m not sure we even have to look at the data ourselves to find my statement true, if we accept the following as facts: 1) Wages have largely remained stagnant in the past 10 years 2) Inflation has increased in the past 10 years 3) Housing and healthcare costs have increased in the past 10 years Thus, even if employment is exactly as it was ten years ago, it doesn’t seem meaningful in understanding economic health.
        refurb 5y ago
pcwalton 5y ago
It's easy to forget, but housing is affordable for most people in most parts of the US. Here on HN it seems otherwise because we disproportionately live in California and other expensive metropolitan areas along the coasts. Rising prices of gasoline are the most visible sign of inflation for ordinary US consumers.
- elhudy 5y ago
  The issue i take with this is that we’re using measures to define economic well being where we use terms like “most” and then leave behind the other 49% of people, and tell em, “hey, the economy is cookin!” “In the nation as a whole, 70.3 percent of lowest-income households face severe housing cost burdens. ” [1] (2016) [1]https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/harvard_jchs_state_of_the_nations_housing_2017_chap1.pdf https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/ha...
  - kube-system 5y ago
    I'm surprised that nearly 30 percent of households earning under $15,000 a year don't face severe housing cost burdens. Although, do we expect that group of people to be able to easily afford housing in a good economy? I would guess that this group has a tough time affording housing in any economy.
    - elhudy 5y ago
      Yeah, agreed. I don’t know what the proper measure of a good economy is. I’m just critical that said measurement is “jobs”.
    - akiselev 5y ago
      How many of those households are in remote or dying communities like those in Appalachia built around long closed coal mines? 2000 hours a year at minimum wage is roughly that amount so I suspect much of that group is concentrated in areas where houses could literally be bought for a few thousand bucks and there really isn't any work - think Detroit at the end of the 2000s when people were ripping copper out of the walls. Depending on how they count households, a few people might also be providing for a large number of house holds, like in a trailer park. With social security/medicare/medicaid/disability, they might be relatively secure in their housing.
throw0101a 5y ago
> Are jobs and employment rates really what we should be using to measure the economic outlook? That was not the point I was trying to make. I'll try again: * Self-identified GOPers (supposedly) think it is worse now than when economy was tanking and hemorrhaging 800K jobs per month. What planet are they living on if they honestly think this is true?
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  There's a pandemic going on in Jesusland. No one is prepared to go out and spend under such conditions. Can't find fault with the reasoning.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- Nbox9 5y ago
  Inflation was under control in 2009. The reasons people are worried about today’s economy are very different than 2009.
  - throw0101a 5y ago
    Yeah, when an economy is losing 800K jobs per month inflation is usually not a problem, deflation is. In 2009 things went negative: * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA Inflation is usually sign that the economy is running too hot. I think a lot of folks would say that's a 'nice problem' to have.
- elhudy 5y ago
  Point taken, but i suppose i don’t see it as incredibly unreasonable. They think the outlook is worse now than when we were basically at rock bottom. March 2009 is about when i threw all my money into stocks and purchased a home. When you’re at rock bottom is when your expectations should actually be higher. When the economy is cooking and we have all these artificial props keeping us up with insane healthcare spending and inflation on the rise, is when I’m more likely to have lower outlook. Unless I’m mistaken it’s a measure of where you’re trending not where you are in a point in time.
A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
<<Some people would be better off unemployed on government help, than employed full time at minimum wage in a city where housing is unaffordable and inflation is at 5%. I mean it is true. It is virtually impossible to categorize the statement as false. And yet it is wrong in the context of existing society without some additional qualifications.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

swiley 5y ago

When you and your friends get emails every day about how you're getting fired for not taking a drug that you're not going to take, you're going to have very little faith in the economy.

gruez 5y ago
Even if you're against vaccine mandates, that's closer to "little faith in government" than "little faith in economy".
- sokoloff 5y ago
  The questions are usually formulated to address: 1. Respondents’ appraisal of current business conditions. 2. Respondents’ appraisal of current employment conditions. 3. Respondents’ expectations regarding business conditions six months hence. 4. Respondents’ expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence. 5. Respondents’ expectations regarding their total family income six months hence. Any respondent concerned with personal and widespread job losses from non-vaccination would likely score 4 and 5 low and that would show up in this type of survey.
kevinh 5y ago
After Trump was elected, economic optimism among Republicans went from 15% to 74%. Democrats economic optimism dropped by half. The main thing that matters for perception is the person in charge. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/optimism-on-economy-stocks-surges-since-trump-election-cnbc-survey.html https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/optimism-on-economy-stocks-s...
KarlKemp 5y ago
That’s because faith requires (some) thinking.

Digory 5y ago

> if people are worried about the economy like they say, you'd think they'd be saving. Not if the worry is inflation and supply chain instability. That pushes spending, not savings, forward.

oceanghost 5y ago
Yup. I've begun and mostly completed my xmas shopping (for fear of not being able to get anything), and accelerated some purchases I was putting off (new phone, new computer etc).

throw1010b 5y ago

Looking only at unemployment rate is missing half the story. * https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... * https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/14/u-s-labor-market-inches-back-from-the-covid-19-shock-but-recovery-is-far-from-complete/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/14/u-s-labor-m...

quinnjh 5y ago

I would assume theres a high correlation here (though complete conjecture) that GOP base may have fewer members who have graduated with non economically productive degrees and 10-200k of school debt. For every person that graduates shackled to their student debt, the fed has another willing tax-payer who appreciates high inflation. Similarly i would assume the upper percentiles in both parties are happy to see high inflation as it reduces the cost of your multiple million dollar debts. The people getting it the worst will be folks who work for a decent amount of money, have very little debt, and arent hedging / bitcoining their savings. Im assuming the fact that consumers arent saving has to do with them trying to avoid watching their savings shrink 6%