5 ms·

> Nevermind the fact that the sinking was already three times worse or more what the same engineers that are assuring it is safe said it would do. It's not the

> Nevermind the fact that the sinking was already three times worse or more what the same engineers that are assuring it is safe said it would do. It's not the same engineers. The first ones may well be wrong and the later ones right.

EGreg 5y ago
But how would anyone know which engineers would be guaranteed to be right? Who is to say any engineers would be for sure going to be right ahead of time, given how little we know?
wpietri 5y ago
Maybe! Or they could both be wrong. If you'd like to bet that it's only one set of engineers, you can get in on the action for $0.7 - $3.4 million dollars: https://www.sanfranciscocondomania.com/condos/MILLENNIUM-TOWER-SAN-FRANCISCO.php https://www.sanfranciscocondomania.com/condos/MILLENNIUM-TOW... But given that most people buying a home are looking for a low-risk proposition, I get why prices dropped. Especially people buying condos; a big part of the point is that a lot of the hassles are taken care of for you.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > Especially people buying condos; a big part of the point is that a lot of the hassles are taken care of for you. I sometimes wonder about that. For what it costs in ongoing condo fees, you could pay someone to provide exactly the same level of worry-free maintenance on a regular house.
  - lmm 5y ago
    The part that's worrying is the catastrophic cases. I had complex roof leak and while I had to yell and scream and threaten legal action, eventually the management company fixed it; my friend who had a similar problem in his house ended up wiping out his savings replacing the roof.
    - CamperBob2 5y ago
      Well, that probably wasn't necessary. That's basically what home equity loans were supposed to be for, back before people started treating their houses as ATMs.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        I used mine as a way to deposit, and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. Banks have been pushing hard for people to mortgage against the property gain. It is easy to blame 'people' but banks were absolutely in on this and a major driver.
      - lmm 5y ago
        He had the savings available (he'd been planning on retiring the next year), so I don't think getting a loan and keeping the savings would have made him any better off.
        maxbond 5y ago
        I believe the idea is, if you secure the loan against your house, and your house is beyond repair, you can default on the loan, surrender your house, and still have your savings. Though I'm skeptical of the terms you'd get on a loan secured by a badly damaged home.
        lmm 5y ago
        Well you're out the value of your house in that case, so I don't think that leaves you any better off. A loan might let you smooth out a sudden big expense, but it's not going to make it go away.
        quickthrowman 5y ago
        If a five-figure roof replacement wiped out his savings, how was he planning to pay for things in retirement?
        5y ago
  - notjesse 5y ago
    You could. At the same time, a new construction townhouse (and maybe even SFH) there is extremely limited maintenance work needed. Plus, you don't need to be concerned with a HOA saying you can't rent your place out on whatever platform you choose.
    - gnopgnip 5y ago
      Single family home and townhome HOA can, and often do restrict rentals. And short term rentals are restricted city wide
  - xivzgrev 5y ago
    condo fees also cover walls out insurance, many utilities, neighborhood upkeep, etc. given you're already paying these yourself in SFH, it's not quite apples to apples to say full HOA fees would be ON TOP of all of that. i'd subtract whatever your water/trash/sewage bills are from "typical" HOA rates in your area, and subtract typical difference in home vs HO6 insurance rates, then get to net to compare.
ineedasername 5y ago
Bur another (third?) set of engineers was also wrong, not anticipating the impact that their work to fix the situation would have on actually accelerating the problem. It seems this is a chaotic environment that may defy the ability of experts to make accurate predictions.
- dotancohen 5y ago
  > Bur another (third?) set of engineers was also wrong, not anticipating the impact that their work to fix the situation would have on actually accelerating the problem. The leaning tower of Pisa has a similar history: most attempts at straightening the tower only made it worse. I've heard this about another leaning building, also in Europe I believe, but I cannot remember where.
  - egberts1 5y ago
    Big Ben of London. https://blog.architizer.com/inspiration/collections/ten-famous-tilted-buildings/ https://blog.architizer.com/inspiration/collections/ten-famo...
    - dotancohen 5y ago
      Thank you!
- naikrovek 5y ago
  it's almost like humans don't know everything and are still learning.
naikrovek 5y ago
and/or, details about the soil layer topology which weren't known when the building was built now are known.

EGreg 5y ago

But how would anyone know which engineers would be guaranteed to be right? Who is to say any engineers would be for sure going to be right ahead of time, given how little we know?

wpietri 5y ago

Maybe! Or they could both be wrong. If you'd like to bet that it's only one set of engineers, you can get in on the action for $0.7 - $3.4 million dollars: https://www.sanfranciscocondomania.com/condos/MILLENNIUM-TOWER-SAN-FRANCISCO.php https://www.sanfranciscocondomania.com/condos/MILLENNIUM-TOW... But given that most people buying a home are looking for a low-risk proposition, I get why prices dropped. Especially people buying condos; a big part of the point is that a lot of the hassles are taken care of for you.

rootusrootus 5y ago
> Especially people buying condos; a big part of the point is that a lot of the hassles are taken care of for you. I sometimes wonder about that. For what it costs in ongoing condo fees, you could pay someone to provide exactly the same level of worry-free maintenance on a regular house.
- lmm 5y ago
  The part that's worrying is the catastrophic cases. I had complex roof leak and while I had to yell and scream and threaten legal action, eventually the management company fixed it; my friend who had a similar problem in his house ended up wiping out his savings replacing the roof.
  - CamperBob2 5y ago
    Well, that probably wasn't necessary. That's basically what home equity loans were supposed to be for, back before people started treating their houses as ATMs.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      I used mine as a way to deposit, and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. Banks have been pushing hard for people to mortgage against the property gain. It is easy to blame 'people' but banks were absolutely in on this and a major driver.
    - lmm 5y ago
      He had the savings available (he'd been planning on retiring the next year), so I don't think getting a loan and keeping the savings would have made him any better off.
      - maxbond 5y ago
        I believe the idea is, if you secure the loan against your house, and your house is beyond repair, you can default on the loan, surrender your house, and still have your savings. Though I'm skeptical of the terms you'd get on a loan secured by a badly damaged home.
        lmm 5y ago
        Well you're out the value of your house in that case, so I don't think that leaves you any better off. A loan might let you smooth out a sudden big expense, but it's not going to make it go away.
      - quickthrowman 5y ago
        If a five-figure roof replacement wiped out his savings, how was he planning to pay for things in retirement?
        5y ago
- notjesse 5y ago
  You could. At the same time, a new construction townhouse (and maybe even SFH) there is extremely limited maintenance work needed. Plus, you don't need to be concerned with a HOA saying you can't rent your place out on whatever platform you choose.
  - gnopgnip 5y ago
    Single family home and townhome HOA can, and often do restrict rentals. And short term rentals are restricted city wide
- xivzgrev 5y ago
  condo fees also cover walls out insurance, many utilities, neighborhood upkeep, etc. given you're already paying these yourself in SFH, it's not quite apples to apples to say full HOA fees would be ON TOP of all of that. i'd subtract whatever your water/trash/sewage bills are from "typical" HOA rates in your area, and subtract typical difference in home vs HO6 insurance rates, then get to net to compare.

ineedasername 5y ago

Bur another (third?) set of engineers was also wrong, not anticipating the impact that their work to fix the situation would have on actually accelerating the problem. It seems this is a chaotic environment that may defy the ability of experts to make accurate predictions.

dotancohen 5y ago
> Bur another (third?) set of engineers was also wrong, not anticipating the impact that their work to fix the situation would have on actually accelerating the problem. The leaning tower of Pisa has a similar history: most attempts at straightening the tower only made it worse. I've heard this about another leaning building, also in Europe I believe, but I cannot remember where.
- egberts1 5y ago
  Big Ben of London. https://blog.architizer.com/inspiration/collections/ten-famous-tilted-buildings/ https://blog.architizer.com/inspiration/collections/ten-famo...
  - dotancohen 5y ago
    Thank you!
naikrovek 5y ago
it's almost like humans don't know everything and are still learning.

naikrovek 5y ago

and/or, details about the soil layer topology which weren't known when the building was built now are known.