5 ms·

AAPL is still going to tank.

by rhygar 15y ago

swombat 15y ago
Not for very long. There's no real reason for it to do so. This was entirely predictable. Sure, a bunch of people are going to short, but they'll be sorry they did.
- mikeleeorg 15y ago
  I truly, sincerely hope you're right. I've always seen Jobs as a visionary leader, but I'm uncertain he's been similarly effective at grooming a leadership team (or individual) with the same vision. Cult of personality and all that. Part of Apple's success, IMHO, has been Jobs' ability to cut through bureaucracy, egos, corporate politics and industry politics to execute on a pristine vision. Perhaps it's my lack of faith in middle managers, but unless there is a clear mandate from leadership, details & priorities can morph down the chain of command. Visionary products can be diluted by others making what seem like perfectly sound trade-offs. It's the minimization of that dilution, setting of crystal-clear priorities, and making the hard trade-off decisions that has made Jobs such an effective leader at Apple. That, and his ability to look several steps ahead of an industry - and arguably to create new industries - that has given rise to so many of Apple's disruptive innovations. Without him, I have a bad feeling Apple will become better at creating sustaining innovations than disruptive ones. Of course, I don't work there and perhaps there are many others who can make such tough decisions and dream up industry-changing visions. I sincerely hope so. For the growth of the company, I sincerely hope so.
krishna2 15y ago
In the short term, probably yes. But maybe folks have been putting that "discount factor" all along since January. But they have a pretty solid line up ahead (iphone5, sprint-iphone, ipad3, a new product line... and lots of others to come). Plus the iphone/ipad revenues are still growing - so that will only get better in the next few quarters. Very likely, AAPL the stock will move on higher.
- typicalrunt 15y ago
  Agreed. If it does tank, I'll be lining up to buy shares. Throughout all the turbulence of the markets lately, AAPL has been holding up well.
Perceval 15y ago
I wonder why they didn't make this announcement on a Friday afternoon when the markets had already closed.
- spdy 15y ago
  Because they dont care. If the stockmarket would be everything to them they would do so. But Apple is sitting on so much liquidity that they dont go crazy if there stock drops by 5%. And the company is in a perfect shape there is nothing wrong with it the same goes for the future.
  - CamperBob 15y ago
    And the company is in a perfect shape there is nothing wrong with it the same goes for the future. Of course, Andy Grove would call this the most perilous time imaginable. There have never been so many things that can go wrong. Worst case, Cook and the executive team fail in the opposite direction as they did before, letting the company stagnate while endlessly arguing "WWSD?" among themselves.
tptacek 15y ago
Making tomorrow a buying opportunity.
- euroclydon 15y ago
  Maybe buy some long calls.
huhtenberg 15y ago
Not tomorrow, that's for sure. Every half-witted investor is already lining up to buy AAPL shares that will of course drop tomorrow in price as quarter-witted investors will be dumping them because of the Jobs' news. This will ramp up the demand and not let the price slide.
mrcapers 15y ago
i'm inclined to believe that the probability of jobs resigning, especially after his medical leave in january, was already priced into the stock. this would imply the market prices steve's value to the company > the 5% drop we saw after hours, since the 5% drop should reflect the incremental change of P(x) = 1. i'm not saying the stock won't take a huge hit tomorrow, but my bet is that it recovers in the near-to-medium term. i am also not saying that the market is right - i wholeheartedly believe the company and its management can execute on steve's vision and has been for some time without daily guidance.
siglesias 15y ago
AAPL didn't tank.

AAPL is still going to tank.

by rhygar 15y ago

AAPL is still going to tank.

Not for very long. There's no real reason for it to do so. This was entirely predictable. Sure, a bunch of people are going to short, but they'll be sorry they did.

mikeleeorg 15y ago
I truly, sincerely hope you're right. I've always seen Jobs as a visionary leader, but I'm uncertain he's been similarly effective at grooming a leadership team (or individual) with the same vision. Cult of personality and all that. Part of Apple's success, IMHO, has been Jobs' ability to cut through bureaucracy, egos, corporate politics and industry politics to execute on a pristine vision. Perhaps it's my lack of faith in middle managers, but unless there is a clear mandate from leadership, details & priorities can morph down the chain of command. Visionary products can be diluted by others making what seem like perfectly sound trade-offs. It's the minimization of that dilution, setting of crystal-clear priorities, and making the hard trade-off decisions that has made Jobs such an effective leader at Apple. That, and his ability to look several steps ahead of an industry - and arguably to create new industries - that has given rise to so many of Apple's disruptive innovations. Without him, I have a bad feeling Apple will become better at creating sustaining innovations than disruptive ones. Of course, I don't work there and perhaps there are many others who can make such tough decisions and dream up industry-changing visions. I sincerely hope so. For the growth of the company, I sincerely hope so.

krishna2 15y ago

In the short term, probably yes. But maybe folks have been putting that "discount factor" all along since January. But they have a pretty solid line up ahead (iphone5, sprint-iphone, ipad3, a new product line... and lots of others to come). Plus the iphone/ipad revenues are still growing - so that will only get better in the next few quarters. Very likely, AAPL the stock will move on higher.

typicalrunt 15y ago
Agreed. If it does tank, I'll be lining up to buy shares. Throughout all the turbulence of the markets lately, AAPL has been holding up well.

Perceval 15y ago

I wonder why they didn't make this announcement on a Friday afternoon when the markets had already closed.

spdy 15y ago
Because they dont care. If the stockmarket would be everything to them they would do so. But Apple is sitting on so much liquidity that they dont go crazy if there stock drops by 5%. And the company is in a perfect shape there is nothing wrong with it the same goes for the future.
- CamperBob 15y ago
  And the company is in a perfect shape there is nothing wrong with it the same goes for the future. Of course, Andy Grove would call this the most perilous time imaginable. There have never been so many things that can go wrong. Worst case, Cook and the executive team fail in the opposite direction as they did before, letting the company stagnate while endlessly arguing "WWSD?" among themselves.

tptacek 15y ago

Making tomorrow a buying opportunity.

euroclydon 15y ago
Maybe buy some long calls.

huhtenberg 15y ago

Not tomorrow, that's for sure. Every half-witted investor is already lining up to buy AAPL shares that will of course drop tomorrow in price as quarter-witted investors will be dumping them because of the Jobs' news. This will ramp up the demand and not let the price slide.

mrcapers 15y ago

i'm inclined to believe that the probability of jobs resigning, especially after his medical leave in january, was already priced into the stock. this would imply the market prices steve's value to the company > the 5% drop we saw after hours, since the 5% drop should reflect the incremental change of P(x) = 1. i'm not saying the stock won't take a huge hit tomorrow, but my bet is that it recovers in the near-to-medium term. i am also not saying that the market is right - i wholeheartedly believe the company and its management can execute on steve's vision and has been for some time without daily guidance.

siglesias 15y ago

AAPL didn't tank.