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> permanently priced out of home ownership The baby boomers will all die off during your lifetime. There aren’t enough people left to absorb all of their house

> permanently priced out of home ownership The baby boomers will all die off during your lifetime. There aren’t enough people left to absorb all of their houses. I assume at some point there will be a tremendous glut of empty houses on the market which should dramatically lower prices.

lstamour 5y ago
That seems like a slow, one-time correction given immigration and perhaps even before then, demographic shifts changing what types of houses are needed and boomers retiring off the sale prices of their houses. Yes, things don’t normally go up forever, but it’s shocking how much things have gone up and continue to go up, in all financial asset classes. While renting is still seen as an option for many, there will be a market to buy houses (shrinking the “glut” to buy at the low) and pay a bit extra to then rent the house and make some money before selling it again. More interesting to me is whether business real estate will have any kind of dip, given recent work from home, but I also can’t see how that makes residential any less attractive for investment over the long run, unfortunately.
sangnoir 5y ago
> I assume at some point there will be a tremendous glut of empty houses on the market which should dramatically lower prices. If there are no shocks in the housing market, there will be more than enough investor funds to soak up all boomer housing stock. Rentals and AirBnB will be dominant in a self-perpetuating way, as far as I can tell.
harambae 5y ago
That's what Ivy Zelman and crowd are predicting as well [0] Predicting future demographics is hard through, because there are so many variables. Current birthrates in America are down but immigration is compensating. However, if the economy starts faltering we could see the desire to move to America go down as well. https://notoriousrob.com/2021/11/ivy-zelman-demographics-and-housing/ https://notoriousrob.com/2021/11/ivy-zelman-demographics-and...

lstamour 5y ago

That seems like a slow, one-time correction given immigration and perhaps even before then, demographic shifts changing what types of houses are needed and boomers retiring off the sale prices of their houses. Yes, things don’t normally go up forever, but it’s shocking how much things have gone up and continue to go up, in all financial asset classes. While renting is still seen as an option for many, there will be a market to buy houses (shrinking the “glut” to buy at the low) and pay a bit extra to then rent the house and make some money before selling it again. More interesting to me is whether business real estate will have any kind of dip, given recent work from home, but I also can’t see how that makes residential any less attractive for investment over the long run, unfortunately.

sangnoir 5y ago

> I assume at some point there will be a tremendous glut of empty houses on the market which should dramatically lower prices. If there are no shocks in the housing market, there will be more than enough investor funds to soak up all boomer housing stock. Rentals and AirBnB will be dominant in a self-perpetuating way, as far as I can tell.

harambae 5y ago

That's what Ivy Zelman and crowd are predicting as well [0] Predicting future demographics is hard through, because there are so many variables. Current birthrates in America are down but immigration is compensating. However, if the economy starts faltering we could see the desire to move to America go down as well. https://notoriousrob.com/2021/11/ivy-zelman-demographics-and-housing/ https://notoriousrob.com/2021/11/ivy-zelman-demographics-and...