3 ms·

While I agree zoning is a huge issue (I think that interest rates being so low doesn't help, either, but I concur with your thesis that zoning is the bigger pro

While I agree zoning is a huge issue (I think that interest rates being so low doesn't help, either, but I concur with your thesis that zoning is the bigger problem), this, however: > Houses cost roughly the same on a $/sqft basis, adjusted for inflation, as they did in the 1970s. Sorry, but no. My parents bought their first home for $72/sq ft. real¹. They sold it for $99/sq ft. The same house last sold for $208 sq ft., and is Zestimated today at $302/sq ft. The value of the home has averaged >7% gains YoY, well outpacing published inflation. Their current home, built significantly later, and like you say, significantly larger, was $149/sq ft. at purchase, and is $182/sq ft. today. Every house I look at sings this same tune. Accounting for inflation, where my parents got a large house ready to move into, for the same amount to day I'm looking at what I call a "contractor's paradise", and that will require significantly more than the sticker price to make it habitable. ¹all dollar figures in this comment will be in 2021 real dollars, not nominal ones. I.e., adjusted for inflation.

arcticbull 5y ago
The inflation adjusted $/sqft statement is a blended average across the US. It’s lower outside of towns and higher inside towns. This is tracked by the Census bureau but as always with averages there are values on both sides of the mean. [1] One caveat is it does reflect only new construction. [1] https://infogram.com/1pqdpn20vkmlelcq6qx7jzwz9pf00g9xnq5 https://infogram.com/1pqdpn20vkmlelcq6qx7jzwz9pf00g9xnq5
- bosie 5y ago
  > blended average across the US > One caveat is it does reflect only new construction. I am not sure what a blended average is but averaging new constructions makes your stats utterly useless? Where are people living mostly and how does the real estate market go there.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    It's the average price of new construction over time. Generally one would not expect new construction to come in dramatically under market right?
    - banannaise 5y ago
      You're conflating the market for suburban family homes with the market for real estate. What about apartments, commercial real estate, etc.? Rent has absolutely exploded, which might not be priced into suburban family homes that aren't built to be rented and don't directly compete with more urban apartments.
    - bosie 5y ago
      under market, no. but due to locality there are a lot of different real estate markets. dragging prices of wyoming into the dataset when you are interested in nyc or sf makes just no sense. then you have the problem of the different types of new constructions too. i don't see how averaging helps here. at least where i am looking (european country), cities have roughly seen a 100% price increase since 2010. income hasn't kept up with inflation or the housing prices.

arcticbull 5y ago

The inflation adjusted $/sqft statement is a blended average across the US. It’s lower outside of towns and higher inside towns. This is tracked by the Census bureau but as always with averages there are values on both sides of the mean. [1] One caveat is it does reflect only new construction. [1] https://infogram.com/1pqdpn20vkmlelcq6qx7jzwz9pf00g9xnq5 https://infogram.com/1pqdpn20vkmlelcq6qx7jzwz9pf00g9xnq5

bosie 5y ago
> blended average across the US > One caveat is it does reflect only new construction. I am not sure what a blended average is but averaging new constructions makes your stats utterly useless? Where are people living mostly and how does the real estate market go there.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  It's the average price of new construction over time. Generally one would not expect new construction to come in dramatically under market right?
  - banannaise 5y ago
    You're conflating the market for suburban family homes with the market for real estate. What about apartments, commercial real estate, etc.? Rent has absolutely exploded, which might not be priced into suburban family homes that aren't built to be rented and don't directly compete with more urban apartments.
  - bosie 5y ago
    under market, no. but due to locality there are a lot of different real estate markets. dragging prices of wyoming into the dataset when you are interested in nyc or sf makes just no sense. then you have the problem of the different types of new constructions too. i don't see how averaging helps here. at least where i am looking (european country), cities have roughly seen a 100% price increase since 2010. income hasn't kept up with inflation or the housing prices.