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I believe the long con is thus: Meta may be seemingly laughable currently - but assuming the consumerism lifestyle can continue without collapse, grooming ~20%

I believe the long con is thus: Meta may be seemingly laughable currently - but assuming the consumerism lifestyle can continue without collapse, grooming ~20% of the global population as they grow, into artificially desiring a more immersive experience during the critical growth years where the effects socio-psychological dopamine pathways are formed, ideally with these formative interactions happening in more-and-more virtual 'metas'... But I don't think it will win. It would have won had the global stability in almost every pillar of our civilization appears to be de-materializing in front of us.

PaulHoule 5y ago
Two things. (1) Buckminister Fuller told us we had a choice between Utopia and Oblivion but it is hard to go wrong with the assumption that civilization will muddle through. (And that is speaking as someone who has been seriously anti-systemic at times, believed in the "oil peak" in 2001, etc.) (2) Kids are not going to be the early adopters of the metaverse. To the contrary, the people who buy expensive toys are middle aged men. There are indications that (much) older people like VR just fine if they find the content compelling. It's true Facebook has trouble attracting and holding on to young people, but there are many parts of the narrative I don't believe, particularly the idea that young people are an attractive audience to advertise to. Maybe in 1970 getting a child interested in Joe Camel would lead to a lifetime of smoking, but a child that was exposed to Camel or Lucky Strike as a brand in 2010 is either vaping or smoking pot today. Turn on a TV right now and the thing you see advertised the most right now is "Medicare Advantage" plans for people over 65. People will make excuses like "you just aren't looking in the right places" but the fact is that young people don't have a lot of money and businesses struggle to look ahead far enough to cultivate consumers who will be spending 10-20 years from now. Thus the metaverse is a 10-year mission to bamboozle people about Facebook's next quarter.

PaulHoule 5y ago

Two things. (1) Buckminister Fuller told us we had a choice between Utopia and Oblivion but it is hard to go wrong with the assumption that civilization will muddle through. (And that is speaking as someone who has been seriously anti-systemic at times, believed in the "oil peak" in 2001, etc.) (2) Kids are not going to be the early adopters of the metaverse. To the contrary, the people who buy expensive toys are middle aged men. There are indications that (much) older people like VR just fine if they find the content compelling. It's true Facebook has trouble attracting and holding on to young people, but there are many parts of the narrative I don't believe, particularly the idea that young people are an attractive audience to advertise to. Maybe in 1970 getting a child interested in Joe Camel would lead to a lifetime of smoking, but a child that was exposed to Camel or Lucky Strike as a brand in 2010 is either vaping or smoking pot today. Turn on a TV right now and the thing you see advertised the most right now is "Medicare Advantage" plans for people over 65. People will make excuses like "you just aren't looking in the right places" but the fact is that young people don't have a lot of money and businesses struggle to look ahead far enough to cultivate consumers who will be spending 10-20 years from now. Thus the metaverse is a 10-year mission to bamboozle people about Facebook's next quarter.