There's another advantage to feeling it out in production - you're measuring the actual system, not your theoretical model of the system, so all the extra thing

There's another advantage to feeling it out in production - you're measuring the actual system, not your theoretical model of the system, so all the extra things you've forgotten are automatically included (assuming you measure the right things, of course!) And keeping your safety margins nice and wide isn't just inefficiency. It's also building in resilience for when something unexpected does happen. Yes, if you need your six-nines performance on a 1% margin then maybe you should try to optimize this to the nth degree, but realistically almost none of us have to sail that close to the wind.